DEMOCRATS (79 VOTES)
Very likely: 6%
Somewhat likely: 31%
Not likely: 63%
“I’d leave Carson off this list, but given the anger over ‘same ol’ politicians’ going on, and an apparent disregard for the word ‘experience’ as a driver with voters this year, Trump or Fiorina for very different reasons may have the ability to hold on through the primaries.”
“People who say this trio can’t win the nomination have their heads in the sand.”
“All three are beginning to build a ground game, but they still have to convince the big GOP money that they can win a general election.”
“Fiorina has a chance, Trump and Carson do not. Don’t expect to see Trump in Cleveland next summer.”
“Carson and Fiorina, not a chance. But now 40-60 for Trump.”
“September leaders often don’t win the nomination, or even primaries, but the three outsiders are rising.”
“At the end of the day, Republicans will opt for experience.”
“All three are polling way beyond expectations. But they are deeply flawed, which will be dramatically exposed with more focus from the media and voters.”
“Despite their outsider appeal, none of them can beat Hillary Clinton, and in the end, the R establishment will find another candidate.”
“New Hampshire will coalesce around a traditional candidate.”
“Each will be out by Thanksgiving due to their own unique controversy.”
“They’re statement candidates, allowing voters to make a statement about how angry they are at the establishment. It’s temporary, and all three will cycle out.”
Q: How likely is it that Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina, or Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination?
REPUBLICANS (82 VOTES)
Very likely: 4%
Somewhat likely: 16%
Not likely: 80%
“Trump is doing scarily well at the moment, but if Carly can weather the next month of attacks on her HP tenure, her talent and appeal could carry her to the nomination.”
“The undertow created by the outsider sentiment is very powerful. But in the end, the odds are that people will vote for someone who can beat Hillary, and these three cannot.”
“Much more likely that an outsider wins than any other presidential election, but still very difficult to do so.”
“Fiorina is most likely of the three.”
“Fiorina might end up in the VP slot, but the other two will never withstand the scrutiny that a long campaign entails.”
“Summer is almost over and so is Trump.”
“The party wants to win back the WH. In the end, it will nominate someone credible. And none of those three are even plausible presidents.”
“But Carly’s veep stock is at an all-time high.”
“Time is an enemy for each of them—the more you see, the less you like.”
“Like Herman Cain before them, they are ephemeral vessels for the expression of political fantasies.”
“Eventually we’ll sober up (I hope).”
… … … … .
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