Poll: How likely is it that Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina, or Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination?

“Summer is almost over and so is Trump.”

COLUMBIA, SC - SEPTEMBER 23: Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks to the media before a campaign event September 23, 2015 in Columbia, South Carolina. Earlier today, Trump tweeted 'FoxNews has been treating me very unfairly & I have therefore decided that I won't be doing any more Fox shows for the foreseeable future.'
Sean Rayford AFP/Getty
Sarah Mimms
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Sarah Mimms
Oct. 2, 2015, 5 a.m.


Very likely: 6%
Some­what likely: 31%
Not likely: 63%

Very likely

“I’d leave Car­son off this list, but giv­en the an­ger over ‘same ol’ politi­cians’ go­ing on, and an ap­par­ent dis­reg­ard for the word ‘ex­per­i­ence’ as a driver with voters this year, Trump or Fior­ina for very dif­fer­ent reas­ons may have the abil­ity to hold on through the primar­ies.”

Some­what likely

“People who say this trio can’t win the nom­in­a­tion have their heads in the sand.”

“All three are be­gin­ning to build a ground game, but they still have to con­vince the big GOP money that they can win a gen­er­al elec­tion.”

“Fior­ina has a chance, Trump and Car­son do not. Don’t ex­pect to see Trump in Clev­e­land next sum­mer.”

“Car­son and Fior­ina, not a chance. But now 40-60 for Trump.”

“Septem­ber lead­ers of­ten don’t win the nom­in­a­tion, or even primar­ies, but the three out­siders are rising.”

Not likely

“At the end of the day, Re­pub­lic­ans will opt for ex­per­i­ence.”

“All three are polling way bey­ond ex­pect­a­tions. But they are deeply flawed, which will be dra­mat­ic­ally ex­posed with more fo­cus from the me­dia and voters.”

“Des­pite their out­sider ap­peal, none of them can beat Hil­lary Clin­ton, and in the end, the R es­tab­lish­ment will find an­oth­er can­did­ate.”

“New Hamp­shire will co­alesce around a tra­di­tion­al can­did­ate.”

“Each will be out by Thanks­giv­ing due to their own unique con­tro­versy.”

“They’re state­ment can­did­ates, al­low­ing voters to make a state­ment about how angry they are at the es­tab­lish­ment. It’s tem­por­ary, and all three will cycle out.”

Q: How likely is it that Ben Car­son, Carly Fior­ina, or Don­ald Trump wins the Re­pub­lic­an nom­in­a­tion?


Very likely: 4%
Some­what likely: 16%
Not likely: 80%

Very likely

“Trump is do­ing scar­ily well at the mo­ment, but if Carly can weath­er the next month of at­tacks on her HP ten­ure, her tal­ent and ap­peal could carry her to the nom­in­a­tion.”

Some­what likely

“The un­der­tow cre­ated by the out­sider sen­ti­ment is very power­ful. But in the end, the odds are that people will vote for someone who can beat Hil­lary, and these three can­not.”

“Much more likely that an out­sider wins than any oth­er pres­id­en­tial elec­tion, but still very dif­fi­cult to do so.”

“Fior­ina is most likely of the three.”

Not likely

“Fior­ina might end up in the VP slot, but the oth­er two will nev­er with­stand the scru­tiny that a long cam­paign en­tails.”

“Sum­mer is al­most over and so is Trump.”

“The party wants to win back the WH. In the end, it will nom­in­ate someone cred­ible. And none of those three are even plaus­ible pres­id­ents.”

“But Carly’s veep stock is at an all-time high.”

“Time is an en­emy for each of them—the more you see, the less you like.”

“Like Her­man Cain be­fore them, they are eph­em­er­al ves­sels for the ex­pres­sion of polit­ic­al fantas­ies.”

“Even­tu­ally we’ll sober up (I hope).”

 … … … … .

Demo­crat­ic Polit­ic­al In­siders Jill Alp­er, John An­za­lone, Brad Ban­non, Dave Beat­tie, Andy Bech­hoe­fer, Cor­nell Belch­er, Matt Ben­nett, Mitchell W. Ber­ger, Mike Ber­man, Stephanie Bosh, Paul Brath­waite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brew­er, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Bon­nie Camp­bell, Bill Car­rick, Guy Cecil, Mar­tin J. Chávez, Tony Coelho, Larry Co­hen, Jerry Craw­ford, Brendan Daly, Jeff Daniel­son, Peter Daou, Howard Dean, Scott De­Fife, Jim De­mers, Tad Dev­ine, Dav­id Di Mar­tino, Debbie Din­gell, Mon­ica Dix­on, Patrick Dor­ton, Pat Du­jakovich, An­ita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve El­men­d­orf, Carter Eskew, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Fer­son, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Fo­ley, Jef­frey For­bes, Vin­cent Fril­lici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Mi­chael Gonza­lez, Joe Grand­mais­on, Anna Green­berg, Stan Green­berg, Pat Griffin, Larry Griso­lano, Mi­chael Gron­stal, Lisa Grove, Mar­cia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Dick Har­poot­li­an, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Doug Hat­t­away, Mike Henry, Kar­en Hicks, Leo Hindery Jr., Har­old Ickes, Mar­cus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jard­ing, Jona­thon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kauf­man, Lisa Koun­toupes, Celinda Lake, Dav­id Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Le­hane, Jeff Link, Bob Malo­ney, Jim Man­ley, Steve Marchand, Jim Mar­gol­is, Paul Maslin, Keith Ma­son, Susan Mc­Cue, Ger­ald McEntee, Steve McMa­hon, Tom McMa­hon, Phil Mc­Namara, Dav­id Med­ina, Mi­chael Mee­han, Mark Mell­man, John Mer­rigan, Mi­chael Mon­roe, Steve Murphy, Janet Na­pol­it­ano, Dav­id Nas­sar, Mar­cia Nich­ols, John Nor­ris, Tom Ochs, Tom O’Don­nell, Jef­frey Peck, De­bora Pig­na­telli, Tony Podesta, Je­frey Pol­lock, Jack Quinn, Larry Rasky, Mame Re­iley, Ed Rendell, Steve Ric­chetti, Will Robin­son, Steve Rosenth­al, Dav­id Rudd, Ry­an Rudom­in­er, John Ry­an, Mi­chael Sar­geant, Stephanie Schriock, Terry Shu­maker, Sean Sin­clair, Phil Sing­er, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Greg Speed, Darry Sragow, Ken Strasma, Doug Thor­nell, Jef­frey Tram­mell, Ed Tur­l­ing­ton, Rick Wien­er, James Wil­li­ams, JoDee Win­ter­hof, Bri­an Wolff, Jon Young­dahl, and Jim Zo­gby.

GOP Polit­ic­al In­siders Dan Al­len, Stan An­der­son, Gary An­dres, Saul­i­us (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bain­wol, Bri­an Baker, Gary Bauer, Dav­id Beck­with, Paul Ben­necke, Clark Ben­son, Wayne Ber­man, Bri­an Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Bla­lock, Car­mine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bon­jean, Jeff Bu­ley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Al Carde­n­as, Danny Car­roll, Alex Cas­tel­lanos, Ron Christie, Jim Cic­coni, Jonath­an Col­le­gio, Rob Collins, Cesar Conda, Jake Cor­man, Scott Cot­ting­ton, Jay Cran­ford, Greg Crist, Di­ane Crookham-John­son, Fer­gus Cul­len, Tom Dav­is, Mike Den­nehy, Ken Duber­stein, Debi Durham, Sara Fa­gen, Frank Fahren­kopf, John Fee­hery, Don Fierce, Mindy Finn, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Bruce A. Gates, Sam Geduldig, Adam Geller, Ben­jamin Gins­berg, Dav­id Gir­ard-di­Carlo, Bill Green­er, Jonath­an Grella, Lanny Grif­fith, Janet Mullins Gris­som, Doug Gross, Todd Har­ris, Steve Hart, Chris­toph­er Healy, Ral­ph Hell­mann, Chris Hen­ick, Terry Holt, Dav­id Ian­nel­li, Ed Ingle, Jim In­no­cenzi, Clark Judge, Dav­id Keat­ing, Dav­id Ken­sing­er, Bob Kjel­lander, Ed Kut­ler, Chris La­Civ­ita, Jim Lake, Steven Law, Steve Lom­bardo, Kev­in Mad­den, Joel Maiola, Gary Malo­ney, Dav­id Mar­in, Mary Matal­in, Dan Mat­toon, Bri­an Mc­Cor­mack, Mark McKin­non, Kyle Mc­Slar­row, Ken Mehl­man, Jim Mer­rill, Lisa Cam­ooso Miller, Tim Mor­ris­on, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nel­son, Neil Ne­w­house, Dav­id Nor­cross, Zi­ad Ojakli, Jack Oliv­er, Todd Olsen, Kev­in O’Neill, Con­nie Par­toy­an, Billy Piper, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, Dav­id Rehr, Tom Reyn­olds, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, Dav­id Roeder­er, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, An­drew Shore, Kev­in Shuvalov, Don Sipple, Ken Spain, Fred Steep­er, Bob Steven­son, Terry Sul­li­van, Dav­id Tamasi, Eric Tan­en­blatt, Richard Temple, Heath Thompson, Jay Tim­mons, War­ren Tomp­kins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk Van Don­gen, Jan van Lo­huizen, Stew­art Ver­dery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Lezlee West­ine, Dave Win­ston, Ginny Wolfe, Fred Wszolek, and Mat­thew Zablud.

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