Jan. 7, 2026, 8:14 p.m.
LAFAYETTE, La.—A year ago, Sen. Bill Cassidy’s reelection in a ruby-red state looked dicey. He had voted to convict President Trump over his alleged role in the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol back in 2021, a move that cost the dozen or so other Republicans who tried to hold the president accountable their political careers. Of the seven senators who voted to convict Trump, four—Sens. Richard Burr, Mitt Romney, Ben Sasse, and Pat Toomey—retired before having to confront voters again. So far, only Sen. Lisa Murkowski narrowly survived reelection, thanks to ranked-choice voting in Alaska. The seventh, Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, is facing reelection as well this year, though the dynamics are different for her in a Democratic-leaning state.
But even with Trump’s return to power and his penchant for punishing enemies, the tides have slowly shifted in favor of the Louisiana incumbent.
Ahead of a crowded Republican primary in May, the conditions of the race could prove favorable toward Cassidy, with all signs pointing to a tight runoff. With the lack of a singularly strong challenger, Cassidy has the largest war chest among the contenders, and the widest name recognition. Plus, the Louisiana Republican party that once voted to censure him now is singing his praises—a sign that wounds from his past record could be healing.
Mending bridges
In the days following his vote to convict the president five years ago, the Louisiana GOP unanimously voted to censure Cassidy. But since then, many things have changed—including the leadership of the state’s Republican Party and the senator’s public attitude towards the mercurial president.
During the first year of the second Trump administration, Cassidy has switched from being one of Trump's loudest critics to being a critical team player for the administration. As chair of the Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Committee, he has shepherded confirmation of all of the president’s nominees that have come before the panel, notably Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., with whom Cassidy has sparred over vaccinations. And Cassidy voted to pass Trump’s marquee legislation: the “One Big Beautiful Bill.”
Cassidy has been a key player in delivering the president’s health care agenda. During negotiations for an extension of enhanced premium tax credits under the Affordable Care Act, the chairman led proposals that would make pre-funded health savings accounts available for certain enrollees on the marketplaces—an effort to bring to life the president’s calls to directly send money to constituents as opposed to subsidizing insurance companies.
Being a team player has gone a long way in mending his relationship with the state party, Louisiana GOP vice Chair Jerry Brouillette told National Journal.
When asked about his current relationship with the state party, Cassidy said he "gets along fantastic” with party chairman Derek Babcock. Babcock did not not respond to multiple requests for comment from National Journal.
Under Babcock’s leadership, the local GOP group has changed its tune toward the senator. Brouillette said that the relationship is “one of mutual respect, and working together to help advance our country and our state.”
“I believe that we work well with him at this point,” Brouillette said. “He's done a lot with the Trump administration to work on mending fences, or building bridges. He was very strong in making sure that RFK Jr. got confirmed. He was critical when we did the One Big, Beautiful Bill.”
Still, the positive comments do not equate to an endorsement. Although the executive committee has endorsed candidates in the past during its open jungle primary, the state’s new closed primary system is changing the GOP calculus.
“I think the approach that we're taking as an executive committee at this point is we would like for the people to decide,” Brouillette said. “Once we get the identified candidate for the general election … I'm sure we'll fully support whoever that candidate is.”
The shift in attitudes toward Cassidy isn’t just coming from the state party. Last January, Rep. Clay Higgins issued a full-throated threat in an effort to pressure Cassidy into confirming RFK Jr. The congressman turned down the prospect of primarying Cassidy, but he didn’t miss the chance to ding the senator, predicting that Cassidy’s “service to our Nation within the Senate seems to have soon reached conclusion.”
But in an interview last month with National Journal, Higgins seemed to have come to a different conclusion—now acknowledging that “Cassidy is at the top of that ticket, clearly.”
“He's checking all the boxes,” Higgins said. “He is, I believe, effectively and aggressively trying to appeal to the rank-and-file Republican voter in the state of Louisiana, and he's a wise man. He recognizes that he had issues there because of some of his past considerations in votes that did not age well.”
In his March open letter, Higgins wrote that he hopes a “MAGA America First Republican candidate will emerge” in the primary. But he told National Journal last month that he has no plans to put his thumb on the scale.
‘It’s too far gone’
However, some aren’t convinced that Cassidy has made enough inroads with voters—particularly those in the more conservative, rural parishes of the state.
“What's sad to say is that I don't think that they're in a position to heal the wounds. I think that it's too far gone,” said Luke Dupré, the chair of the GOP executive committee of Acadia Parish. “He could come out tomorrow and cure cancer and I would say that most, at least rural Republicans, would still say, ‘We're not going with you.’”
Dupré told National Journal that Cassidy’s conviction vote against Trump didn’t represent the general consensus of the state’s voters, who are reliably Republican and largely conservative. While Cassidy’s shift toward Trumpism has lowered the flame of voters’ animosity, he says it still won’t be enough to capture their votes.
“He's made a lot of progress, but it's not enough for my people out here to actually make them vote for him,” said Dupré, who is throwing his support behind state Sen. Blake Miguez to unseat Cassidy. “Now they just don't hate him.”
The divide between pro- and anti-Cassidy voters is playing out in the parishes’ different ideological makeups. More rural, conservative parishes, such as Washington and St. Helena, could be difficult for Cassidy to win. GOP primary voters in more urban parishes, including St. Tammany, East Baton Rouge, and St. Bernard, are more moderate and may be more open to supporting him.
“I don't really see anyone that’s a challenger who really has a good message other than ‘I love Trump more than him,’” said 49-year-old Jathan Maricelli, a Republican pastor and entrepreneur living in St. Tammany Parish. “[Cassidy] has done a lot to have a good record within Louisiana. Me personally, I would not vote him out for [his conviction vote]."
Other voters, however, were firmly in the anti-Cassidy camp.
“Cassidy is not somebody that I have a lot of confidence in,” said Ralph, a retired 63-year-old artist living in Lafayette Parish who declined to give his last name. He said he lost trust in Cassidy after his 2021 vote, and remains skeptical of him.
No recognizable challenger
However, a number of anti-Cassidy voters could not identify his challengers by name, nor could they point to a memorable aspect of an opponent's campaign.
“There’s no presence here. … I’ve heard of them, and that they exist, but they’re like a non-entity,” said Ralph, whose parish is represented by two of the candidates in the Senate race—state Sen. Miguez and state Rep. Julie Emerson.
The lack of universal name recognition for the other candidates gives Cassidy an immediate advantage. Miguez and state Treasurer John Fleming are early favorites to qualify for a runoff based on their higher name ID among the field of challengers.
Even as Cassidy has aligned himself more with the Trump administration, a fly in the ointment could come back to haunt his candidacy: Kennedy and his plans to overhaul the childhood vaccine schedule.
During Kennedy's confirmation process, Cassidy extracted pledges from the nominee that he would leave the country’s vaccine systems alone—a promise that was ultimately broken. Since then, Cassidy has held public oversight hearings into Kennedy's ouster of prominent officials from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and has openly disagreed with the secretary's decision-making.
Louisiana has a notable MAHA voter base, but whether or not these public tiffs will make a dent in the race remains debatable. A number of voters who spoke to National Journal were not tracking the feud between Cassidy and the Cabinet official, or were simply unaware of it.
“You do have a very strong MAHA contingent that's active, but they're not huge in numbers,” Brouillette said. “I'm sure they can have an influence on the edges, but I don't think that in and of itself would cause him to win or lose.”
The Trump factor
The wild card that could upend the calculus of the race is the president, and whether or not he makes an endorsement. A number of voters told National Journal that Trump’s backing could make them rethink their hesitation to support Cassidy.
“That would help, if Trump forgives him,” said Shelley Thomas, a 68-year-old Republican and undecided voter who lives in Lafayette Parish. “I’m disappointed in what he did with Trump last term, so I'm a little leery of him. I don't know. It depends on who runs against him.”
Reports of Rep. Julia Letlow considering a Senate run could shake up the race as well, particularly if she receives the president’s support. However, a number of outside observers are skeptical that the congresswoman would launch a bid, arguing that time is running out to run a robust campaign. The deadline to qualify for the race would fall in mid-February.
“It's still possible, but I think in this type of race, the sooner you get out there and start working it, the better your odds are,” Brouillette said. “I would think that if she were going to run out, I would have thought that we would have already heard that officially.”
A spokesperson for Letlow did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The Republicans looking to unseat Cassidy
In addition to Fleming, Emerson, and Miguez, the crowded GOP primary includes St. Tammany Parish Councilwoman Kathy Seiden, state Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta, and health care professional Sammy Wyatt. A few appear to be formidable in terms of fundraising or polling.
In an October GOP primary poll conducted for the Fleming campaign, the state treasurer got 25 percent while Cassidy got 23 percent. Other candidates received 17 percent, and 35 percent of likely GOP primary voters were undecided. Fleming led the senator by 11 points in a runoff scenario.
“Given that [Cassidy] made that impeachment vote and that he did not formally take back what he did, that to me is kind of the background of this entire Senate race,” John Couvillon, a Louisiana-based pollster who conducted Fleming’s internal polling, told National Journal. “The question then becomes how he’s messaging himself from now till probably June, and the reason I’m saying June is this almost certainly is going to a runoff.”
Fleming’s fundraising numbers are a mixed bag. He amassed $2.2 million during the third quarter last year thanks to a $2.1 million loan; he received about $104,000 from individual and PAC contributions. Cassidy raised $1.4 million during the quarter, entering October with a $9.5 million war chest.
Miguez, an early Cassidy critic, raised $1.2 million during the same period, entering October with $2.5 million on hand. Miguez is billing himself as the strongest Republican to take on Cassidy, calling attention to Fleming’s unsuccessful 2016 Senate bid.
“We’re building a tremendous amount of momentum, and we’ve surpassed some of the internal benchmarks that we set for ourselves very early on in the campaign,” Miguez told National Journal. “I think when we get into the new year and the rest of the nation starts focusing on what’s happening in Louisiana, I think we’re in the perfect position to see the most benefit and we have the best chance of winning the race.”
With the primary set for May 16, many are expecting the race to head to a runoff in June—and a number of Cassidy's challengers expect the real race to begin then.
“So the vote comes down to either pro-Cassidy votes or anti-Cassidy votes. ... Whoever has the most anti-Cassidy votes will be in the runoff with Cassidy, and then all of the others will then fold in behind that candidate,” Fleming told National Journal in an interview. “So really, my job is to have the most votes among all of the anti-Cassidy votes, and get in the runoff.”
Ultimately, the primary race boils down to whether or not Cassidy or one of his challengers can win the trust of more-conservative voters.
“A lot of us don't like him; a lot of us think he's a RINO,” said Amy Reed, the president of Lafayette Parish’s chapter of Fleur De Lis Republican Women, who is supporting Miguez. “A lot of us are really anxious to get him out of office.”
