Dec. 9, 2025, 5:15 p.m.
Democratic Rep. Jasmine Crockett’s entry into the Texas Senate race sent a ripple effect through North Texas as candidates scrambled to find districts ahead of the filing deadline.
Her firebrand persona and progressive politics could be a welcome gift for Republicans statewide, who feared that a potentially expensive and brutal Republican Senate primary could cost them in critical congressional races. Earlier this year, the GOP-aligned Senate Leadership Fund argued that embattled Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton could cost the party pivotal House races across the state if he wins his primary challenge against Sen. John Cornyn. Some Democrats worry they now could have a similar problem on their hands.
In South Texas particularly, House Republicans are welcoming Crockett into the race with open arms after she forced former Rep. Colin Allred out of the Senate race. A moderate Democrat, Allred outpaced the top of the ticket by 8 points in South Texas last year during his failed bid against Sen. Ted Cruz.
“I think the worst-case scenario for some of these races is a Crockett nomination,” said South Texas Democratic strategist Bert Santibañez.
South Texas saw stark shifts toward President Trump last year as Hispanic voters continued to trend toward the Republican Party. Democratic Reps. Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez won reelection despite former Vice President Kamala Harris’ support cratering in the region. Harris lost all three Rio Grande Valley congressional districts; former President Biden had won some by as many as 15 points in 2020.
“I think looking at Harris’s underperformance, I’m sure there’s folks in those areas that are very leery of a Crockett nomination and potentially adding downward pressure to the ticket,” Santibañez said. He added that there appeared to be a “lack of coordination” in trying to run one of the strongest statewide tickets in Texas Democratic history.
Any Democrat who hopes to win statewide must perform well in the heavily Latino South Texas region. Scant polling suggests Crockett may have some work to do against potential GOP opponents among Hispanic voters. Crockett focused her nascent campaign on resisting Trump instead of highlighting cost-of-living concerns that this community prioritizes.
Crockett has leaned heavily into the national politics that ultimately sank Harris. That could present problems for the moderate Democrats in South Texas. Voters in the region appreciated Allred’s focus on local issues and centrist ideas. Hidalgo County Democratic Party Chairman Richard Gonzales said that Allred “spent a lot of time down here, he put in the work, and he was accessible to the people.” Allred had been in the Rio Grande Valley three times before he ended his campaign this week.
Even before Allred suspended his campaign, he’d won some support over state Rep. James Talarico in the primary campaign. Luciano Garza, a Democratic National Committee delegate from Weslaco, Texas, told National Journal that Talarico “believes in some things really out in left field,” referring to past comments the candidate made about gender.
Santibañez concluded in a postelection analysis that “Allred’s moderate candidacy and localized economic messaging allowed him to outperform Harris” along the border.
Crockett is not that. She has a reputation as one of the most outspoken progressives on Capitol Hill, and she represents a dark-blue seat. Her Dallas district went to Harris by almost 50 points last year, according to an analysis from The Downballot.
Cuellar, who is likely to face a competitive reelection bid even after Trump pardoned him for corruption charges last week, told National Journal during an October interview in Laredo that Allred did well in South Texas because of his “moderate positions.” The congressman also said that “Hispanics [are] conservative in nature.”
Cuellar has made a name for himself by bucking the national Democratic Party and siding with Republicans on hot-button issues such as abortion and immigration. He says Democrats would be more successful if they elevated more moderates than progressives. His views have allowed him to remain successful in the shifting region, and he even earned a “beloved” label from Trump—before the president accused him of disloyalty for not switching parties after the pardon. Cuellar drew a challenge last week from Webb County Judge Tano Tijerina, national Republicans’ likely best recruit across the entire House battlefield.
The National Republican Congressional Committee is salivating at the thought of a Crockett nomination, arguing that she could be a drag on Democrats down the ballot. “Crockett is electoral kryptonite and now vulnerable Texas Democrats are stuck sharing a ticket with her,” NRCC spokesman Reilly Richardson told National Journal in a statement. “Whether they cave and endorse her before the primary or wait until she’s officially coronated as Democrats’ next statewide loser, her toxic brand will hurt Texas Democrats down the ballot next year.”
In a potential preview of what’s to come, the NRCC already went after Gonzalez on social media for voting the same way as Crockett 87 percent of the time.
Her bid could complicate Democrats’ hopes of unseating Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz, who represents the McAllen area. National Democrats have coalesced around Tejano musician Bobby Pulido, but he also faces physician Ada Cuellar in the primary.
Ada Cuellar, who told National Journal in October that she thinks Talarico would better benefit her candidacy than Allred, said she “welcomes a competitive primary” between Crockett and Talarico. She added that a “competitive primary is vital to elevating the best candidate” to win both statewide and in the Republican-leaning 15th District.
Crockett, a proven fundraiser and rising darling in liberal politics, might be able to leverage those strengths to energize a Democratic base that has not seen a statewide win in Texas since 1994. She said at her launch event that Texas is not a red state, that the “reality is that most Texans don’t get out to vote.”
That might be true, but it’s a risky gambit for a polarizing figure who has now shaken up the Texas political landscape. And in a state where just about everything needs to go right for Democrats, Crockett’s entry could cast uncertainty across the entire state.
