Dec. 9, 2025, 11:21 a.m.
In July, the NRSC released an innocuous survey of the Texas Senate race where they were desperately defending Sen. John Cornyn (R) against state Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) in the primary. The poll instead tested the Democratic primary, finding that Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-TX 30), who had not yet expressed any interest in the race, ahead of notable Texas Democrats like 2024 SEN nominee Colin Allred and 2022 GOV nominee Beto O’Rourke. This was the first public poll test for Crockett and she apparently liked what she saw.
Nearly five months and several polls later, the congresswoman jumped into the Senate race yesterday to Republicans’ delight and moderate Democrats’ dismay. NRSC executive director Jennifer DeCasper described Crockett in an X post as the committee’s “#1 recruit” and the group’s political director, Brendan Jaspers, shared an image reading: “The Gang Recruits Jasmine Crockett in Texas.”
The congresswoman said she referred to public and private polling in making her decision, but emphasized that she “never put myself into any of the polls.”
“The more I saw the poll results, I couldn't ignore the trends, which were clear, both as it relates to the primary as well as the general election,” Crockett said at her campaign launch in Dallas on Monday.
The question now is whether the NRSC baited her into a statewide campaign with their July survey. Two Texas pollsters told Hotline that the NRSC’s poll didn’t directly inform their decision to include Crockett in their surveys, which were in the field in September and October, instead pointing to her rise in Democratic politics.
Michael O. Adams, a political science professor at Texas Southern University, said Crockett could have a “particular attraction to low propensity voters.” Renée Cross, the senior executive director of the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston, said the congresswoman could “bring a very heightened sense of enthusiasm” comparable to O’Rourke’s 2018 bid against Sen. Ted Cruz (R).
A poll released in October by the University of Houston and Texas Southern University found Crockett ahead of state Rep. James Talarico (D), 52%-34%, in a head-to-head primary. The same poll showed mixed results for either Democrats’ chances in a general election against Cornyn, Hunt, and Paxton.
GOP strategists argue the congresswoman’s progressive bona fides and contentious comments wouldn’t perform well in a state President Trump won by roughly 14 points. Crockett instead attributes her firebrand status as a Democratic turnout driver, particularly among the party’s disillusioned voters.
“This campaign is about winning with a strong, multiracial, multigenerational coalition of people that is reflective of this great state,” Crockett said.
Despite the primary shakeup, Democrats are happy to potentially avoid a costly runoff unlike their GOP counterparts. DSCC spokesperson Maeve Coyle told Hotline in a statement that “Republicans have already lit nearly $50 million on fire trying to bail out John Cornyn—a historically unpopular incumbent locked in a nasty three-way primary with a scandal-plagued politician.”
— Nicholas Anastácio
nanastacio@nationaljournal.com
