Nov. 21, 2025, 11:38 a.m.
The rise of New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani (D) has Democrats sweating progressive primary challengers. Incumbents are worried that the democratic socialist’s win in New York City could galvanize more left-wing insurgents as the party grapples with the fallout of the 2024 election.
Justice Democrats, the progressive organization that powered Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY 14) and other liberals in 2018, has already endorsed several challengers to incumbents this cycle: Michigan state Rep. Donavan McKinney (D) in MI-13, former Rep. Cori Bush (D) in MO-01, and Tennessee state Rep. Justin Pearson (D) in TN-09.
Giving credence to the challengers’ credibility, Axios recently asserted that Justice Democrats have “a long track record of unseating establishment Democrats.” But a closer examination of the left-wing group’s record suggests that their bark might be worse than their bite the last few cycles.
The last time a candidate endorsed by Justice Democrats beat an incumbent was 2020. None of the progressive group’s Senate candidates have won a primary in the last eight years. The group struck out in contested primaries in 2022 and one of their endorsed incumbents lost. However, two of their House challengers won open-seat races in PA-12 and TX-35. The organization did not endorse any primary challengers in the 2024 cycle, instead focusing on defending their 12 incumbents as the party grappled with its support for Israel. The only Democratic incumbents who lost renomination last cycle were endorsed by Justice Democrats: former Reps. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY) and Bush. The pair lost thanks to a mix of personal scandals and challengers backed by deep-pocketed pro-Israel groups.
Knocking off an incumbent is less about politics and more about personality. Unless these moderates had to resign in disgrace after weathering credible sexual harassment allegations, or are largely absent, from their districts, the threat might be overblown. Justice Democrats have endorsed five challengers and nine incumbents this cycle.
— Kirk A. Bado
kbado@nationaljournal.com
