Nov. 20, 2025, 7 p.m.
Democrats are feeling bullish after overperformances in the off-year elections in New Jersey and Virginia. Buoyed by strong performances in Latino communities that had drifted right last year, Democratic strategists are looking to parlay that success next year in states like Arizona and Nevada with large Latino populations.
However some strategists warn they can’t rely on anti-Trump sentiment alone to win over Latino voters, who are deeply concerned with the economy and immigration enforcement.
Arizona and Nevada are the two swing states where President Trump performed best overall in 2024, and where around a quarter of the electorate are Latino. The reelection bids of Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) and Nevada Gov. Joe Lombardo (R) will test whether the GOP can hold onto the gains Trump made with Latino voters without the president on the ballot. Democrats are making a bet they can win back this crucial bloc’s trust with economic and immigration-focused messages—two issues voters rejected them over in 2024.
Trump increased his share of Hispanic voters from 36 percent in 2020 to 48 percent in 2024, according to the Pew Research Center. He flipped Arizona with a 5.5-point margin and Nevada with a 3-point margin—even as Democratic Senate candidates won statewide on the same ballots.
“I think the question for me is whether the Democrats are going to be able to capitalize, and whether they're going to be able to articulate an affirmative agenda,” said Vanessa Cardenas, the executive director of America’s Voice, an immigration-rights organization.
Democrats performed much better with Latinos in the 2025 marquee races. Hudson County, New Jersey, which has a Hispanic population of 41 percent, swung to Democratic Gov.-elect Mikie Sherrill by a 50-point margin, compared to former Vice President Kamala Harris’ 28-point margin of victory last year. In Manassas, Virginia, where almost half the population is Latino, Democratic Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger doubled Harris’ advantage.
Spanberger and Sherrill won in states more favorable to Democrats. Arizona and Nevada will be a different story. But there are still lessons other Democrats can glean from these winning campaigns.
Sherrill and Spanberger made affordability a cornerstone of their campaigns. Hobbs and Lombardo, as incumbents, will be put on the defense instead of offense.
Arizona Republican consultant Barrett Marson told Hotline that Hobbs’ record on affordable housing may be an issue for her.
In 2023, her administration halted groundwater certifications for new subdivisions in Buckeye and Queen Creek in and around Maricopa County—some of the fastest-growing areas in the country—blocking construction unless developers can prove they have 100-year water supplies.
In Nevada, Lombardo rode economic frustrations following pandemic shutdowns to unseat Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak—the only governor to lose a reelection bid in 2022. But four years later, economic pressures haven’t eased, Democratic strategist Andres Ramirez said.
Tourism on the Las Vegas strip is down 8 percent since 2024, sending ripple effects through the industry that directly or indirectly employs 436,000 people—over a fourth of the state’s total employment.
A long-standing issue for Democrats, especially those in border states, is immigration. Portraying Democrats as weaker on immigration worked for Republicans and Trump in 2020.
This time around, strategists who spoke with National Journal said that the Trump administration’s immigration enforcement actions are giving Democrats an opportunity to strike a balance.
Hobbs maintains her stance of securing the border while shutting down a proposal to force law enforcement agencies to cooperate with Immigration and Customs Enforcement.
“As a border state, we have unique challenges," Hobbs said in her announcement video. "And when Washington politicians failed to secure it, I ordered the National Guard to the border to fight drug and human trafficking. And we’ve seized over 12 million fentanyl pills.”
Lombardo has walked a fine line on immigration as well. He authorized the Nevada National Guard to support ICE operations. Like Latinos in Arizona, those in Nevada favor deporting criminals, but they do not favor current federal operations, Ramirez said.
“What do Democrats in Nevada have to do to win back Latino voters?” Ramirez pondered. “The Democrats in Nevada never lost Latino voters, right? Kamala Harris lost Latino voters, and Donald Trump benefited from that.”
In addition to tailoring their messaging, both incumbents will have to hit the ground running early to reach Latino voters, whom Democratic strategist Chuck Rocha says are “not dyed in the wool with one party or the other.”
“Latino voters are pragmatic," Cardenas said. "Neither party can take them for granted, and when they don't like what's happening, they're going to go out there and say, ‘This is not OK.'”
Trump's win in Nevada was a first for Republicans since former President George W. Bush in 2004. Ramirez said Latino voters in Nevada may have flocked to Trump in 2024, but it should not be read as Latino voters moving to the GOP as a whole.
A recent Noble Predictive Insights poll found Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford leading the incumbent governor by 23 points among Latino voters.
Kenneth Miller, a University of Nevada, Las Vegas, political science assistant professor, attributed split-ticket voting that elected Trump and statewide Democrats in Nevada 2024 to weakly partisan voters, which he said could bode ill for Lombardo if they turn out in 2026 like they didn’t turn out in New Jersey and Virginia.
Lombardo’s campaign pointed to the governor’s work “with the Hispanic community to make our streets safer, our schools more accountable, and housing more accessible,” saying his relationship with the community is “personal, and it’s how he’s earned their trust.”
The Hobbs campaign expressed similar sentiments.
“Katie Hobbs is working to earn the vote of every Arizonan, including Latino families," said Michael Beyer, Hobbs's campaign communications director. "That’s why she’s laser-focused on lowering costs, supporting small businesses, and making sure every community feels safe, respected, and heard. Katie Hobbs is meeting Latino voters where they are, listening to their concerns, and delivering real results—which is why she will win in 2026.”
