Nov. 5, 2025, 2:15 p.m.
A spate of polling over the weekend foretold the results of the major 2025 elections—and I’m not talking about the horserace polls of the races, although those were generally correct as well.
It’s still all about the economy. Views on the economy remain about as bad as they were a year ago, but now it’s the Republicans in charge who are shouldering the blame.
CNN/SSRS polling shows 72 percent of Americans think the economy is in poor shape. In a CBS News poll, 62 percent say prices have gone up in the last few weeks, and 64 percent expect prices to go up in the next few months.
The ABC News/Washington Post poll tells us 59 percent of Americans think President Trump is to blame for inflation, including two-thirds of independents and even 20 percent of Republicans. Economists will note that inflation is not that high right now—but average people use “inflation” as shorthand for “everything costs too much.”
That’s actually one of Trump’s better numbers on the economy in the poll—65 percent disapprove of how he has handled tariffs, and 62 percent disapprove of his handling of the economy overall.
A poll from NBC News hammers the point home, with 63 percent of voters saying Trump has fallen short of expectations on the economy overall, 65 percent saying he has fallen short on looking out for the middle class, and 66 percent saying he has fallen short on inflation and the cost of living.
At the same time, that doesn’t necessarily translate to trusting Democrats with the economy. A Reuters-Ipsos poll shows Republicans still hold a narrow advantage on which party Americans think is better at handling the economy, as does the CBS News poll. The NBC News poll has the parties nearly at parity on the issue, with Republicans up by one point. A lot of people are saying neither party is better at the economy.
But with Republicans bearing the blame for economic conditions, the two marquee statewide races in Virginia and New Jersey got the expected results: Democrats won. It’s true that these are generally blue states, in which you’d expect the Democrat to win. But Virginians elected a Republican governor four years ago, and you don’t have to dig too far in New Jersey’s past to find a Republican governor, either.
Still, these were races that Democrats were expected to win this year. The main question was whether the outcomes would reverse a worrying trend for the party in the 2024 results. Trump had closed the gap considerably in 2024, losing each state by only six points, after losing Virginia by 10 points and New Jersey by 16 points in 2020.
Democrats should be breathing sighs of relief, as the results for 2025 look like a return to 2020 numbers: Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger won Virginia by about 15 points and Gov.-elect Mikie Sherrill won New Jersey by around 13 points. Sherrill’s win in New Jersey is the first time voters have elected a Democrat for governor three terms in a row in more than 50 years.
The last few election cycles have made clear that we’re stuck in a swingy, two-party doom loop. Which party has the upper hand switches based on who’s in charge, and therefore who gets blamed for economic conditions.
Americans remain very unhappy. They’ve seen no relief to the cost of living since the last election. Or the one before that. Hard-core partisans stick with their parties, of course, but turnout patterns shift—one side’s voters are often more motivated than the other’s, typically the out-party.
Independent voters switch their votes based on who they blame for current conditions, which is exacerbated by ongoing partisan dealignment. Voter registration statistics and polls of partisan identity show that more and more voters are choosing not to align with either party.
Young people and Latino voters in particular are shying away from partisan labels, and it looks like Latino voters in New Jersey shifted back toward Democrats. Young men, a group that moved toward Trump in 2024, supported Spanberger in Virginia by 15 points and Sherrill in New Jersey by 12 points.
Barring sweeping changes that ease the cost of living for Americans in the next year, we’re likely to see 2026, and possibly even 2028, play out in Democrats’ favor simply based on economic concerns. Then Republicans will likely have the upper hand again.
None of this is good. Swinging back and forth, unfortunately, has yet to solve any of the underlying issues.
Contributing editor Natalie Jackson is a vice president at GQR Research.
