Oct. 8, 2025, 4:52 p.m.
Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill leads her Republican opponent, Jack Ciattarelli, 49 percent to 43 percent, with 8 percent unsure, in a new poll of the New Jersey governor’s race shared exclusively with National Journal.
The poll, commissioned by the Democratic Governors Association and conducted by Public Policy Polling, comes as Sherrill and Ciattarelli prepared to take the stage Wednesday night for the second and final debate of a race testing whether Democrats can hold onto the blue-leaning state amid recent polls showing the two candidates essentially tied. The DGA poll was in the field on Oct. 2-3 and surveyed 703 registered voters, with a margin of error of 3.7 percentage points.
Ciattarelli, now in his third bid for governor, came within 3 points of defeating Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy in 2021, despite polls showing Murphy with a larger single-digit lead. Since then, the GOP has made gains across the Garden State. Former President Biden won the state by double digits in 2020. President Trump narrowed that lead and lost to former Vice President Kamala Harris by only 6 points in 2024, making inroads with Latino and Black communities. The race will be the first statewide test since then of how Trump helps, or hurts, Republican nominees.
The president has remained a not-so-hidden elephant in the room throughout the race. Sherrill has repeatedly hit Ciattarelli for his ties to Trump. The GOP nominee distanced himself from the president in his last two runs. On the flip side, Ciattarelli claims all Sherrill wants to talk about is the president.
In the DGA poll, 53 percent disapproved of Trump’s job performance, while 41 percent approved. As for the candidates, an equal number of voters (41 percent) viewed Sherrill favorably and unfavorably, while 40 percent viewed Ciattarelli favorably and 47 percent viewed him unfavorably.
Since the June primary, nearly $60 million in ads have been reserved, according to the nonpartisan ad-tracking firm AdImpact. Democrats have reserved close to $40 million, compared to GOP-backed reservations of $21 million. Ad spending is on pace to shatter New Jersey’s previous record.
On the candidate level, Ciattarelli has reserved more than $10 million in ads compared to Sherrill’s $9 million. Sherrill’s latest ads have gone after Ciattarelli for distributing her military records that were improperly released by the National Archives to an ally of the GOP nominee. Another ad has defended her military record amidst reports that she did not walk in her U.S. Naval Academy graduation after she did not turn in classmates during a cheating scandal. Ciattarelli, in his ads, called on Sherrill to release her military records.
The DGA reserved $20 million in ads through its super PAC, the Greater Garden State, following the primary. Its first ad of the general election cycle featured an audio clip of Ciattarelli discussing a 10-percent sales tax, a comment he said was taken out of context. Restore New Jersey, the Republican Governors Association-backed super PAC, reserved $355,000 last month and launched an ad targeting Sherrill over rising energy costs. The Republican committee has significantly increased its investment in New Jersey compared to four years ago.
Sherrill held a slight upper hand in the latest campaign finance filings, raising $17.5 million since the end of June compared to Ciattarelli’s $16.5 million. The Democratic nominee had $6.5 million on-hand, while Ciattarelli had nearly $4 million. Ciattarelli is outpacing his fundraising from last cycle.
The Trump factor played out this week with the government shutdown, as the administration froze $18 billion in funding for a rail tunnel connecting New Jersey and New York City. Ciattarelli has turned the blame on Sherrill, who voted against the GOP spending bill in the House. Sherrill has called out Ciattarelli for going along with Trump.
Economic concerns have also defined the campaign’s final stretch. Sherrill has slammed the GOP-backed budget bill, which the president signed in July, warning it could raise energy costs. In the new poll, 20 percent of those polled said the bill will make life in New Jersey better, while 46 percent said it will make life worse.
Expect Trump to play another big part in Wednesday night’s debate, as he did last time. But new developments, such as the release of Sherrill’s military records and Sherrill’s clarified position on not raising the sales tax, will likely take center stage.
