Seeing blue in Green’s district

NASHVILLE—Earlier this year, Republican leaders successfully pressured Rep. Elise Stefanik to withdraw her nomination as U.N. ambassador, fearing that her upstate New York district, which President Trump had carried by 20 points, would flip in a special election.

They had good reason to worry. Special elections historically favor the party out of power, and Democratic voters have turned out in force since Trump returned to the White House. Democratic candidates have outperformed the top of the ticket by an average of 15 points in the 42 special elections so far this year, according to data from the progressive publication The Downballot. Democrats have not flipped any seats so far, but the moral victories are an encouraging sign for a party deep in the political wilderness.

Democrats want to keep that overperformance streak alive in a special election on Dec. 2 in Nashville.

Tennessee voters will first head to the polls for the special-election primary to replace former Republican Rep. Mark Green on Tuesday, in a district with a similar partisan lean to Stefanik’s. The Democratic candidates hope that a strong overperformance might land them on the national radar and spur investments in party infrastructure after years of atrophy.

“This race could dramatically shift the midterm map in 2026,” state Rep. Aftyn Behn, one of four Democrats competing in the primary, told National Journal. “[Democrats] will receive the ROI next year, because if we flip it, if we get within a certain amount of points, then Republicans in the House will start pulling papers to retire.”

Republicans are heavily favored. Trump carried the 7th District by 22 points, while Green romped to victory over former Nashville Mayor Megan Barry by a similar margin. GOP strategists in the state and in D.C. told National Journal that they’re not sweating the general election in December.

But with Trump’s current approval rating hovering around 40 percent, and Green resigning earlier this year to start a new business venture in Guyana amid a messy public divorce, Democrats see the makings of a tighter race in December.

They’ll need to overcome stiff headwinds if they want a Music City Miracle.

Nashville was compacted into a singular district until the GOP-dominated state legislature cracked the blue dot in the center of the red state in the 2022 apportionment process. Republicans divided Nashville into three Republican-leaning districts, and longtime Rep. Jim Cooper, a member of the Blue Dog Coalition, retired. The sprawling 7th District spans the length of the state from Kentucky to Alabama, and contains, along with the wealthy Nashville suburbs, the conservative enclave of Franklin to the south and more-rural areas further west.

“Democrats in Tennessee have been beaten down, and this might get people to realize there’s hope,” a Tennessee Democratic operative granted anonymity to share candid views told National Journal.

Molder said he raised $500,000 in the first 24 hours of his campaign. That’s more than any of the four Democrats running in the special election have raised during the entire campaign.

Back in the 7th, Behn is squaring off against wealthy local businessman Darden Copeland and fellow state Reps. Bo Mitchell and Vincent Dixie in the primary. Copeland, founder of the public-affairs firm Calvert Street Group, has invested more than $125,000 of his own money in the race, lapping the Democratic field in spending. Most of the Democrats have spent the campaign introducing themselves to voters and trying to tap into buyer’s remorse nine months into the new Trump administration.

“They're all from Nashville, and that puts them at a marked disadvantage,” Cooper told National Journal.

For Behn, the only woman in the large field on either side of the aisle and a self-described “political Barbie,” the race is about building party infrastructure as much as it’s about pushing back on Republicans’ One Big Beautiful Bill.

“It's about nationalizing the profile and localizing margins,” Behn said. “The money we’ve raised in the primary goes directly to in-house organizers and staff to contact voters.”

Behn was an activist and an organizer before winning a seat in the legislature in 2023, working as the lead organizer for Enough is Enough TN. She’s adopted those same grassroots tactics to her campaign. Pointing to Tennessee’s dismal voter turnout, she said an infusion of national resources and money would have an immediate impact.

“We just don't have the money to compete with the Republicans in the state,” she said.

Republicans have dominated the airwaves in the primary as outside groups on the Democratic side have kept their powder dry. A bulk of the raising and spending in the primary has focused on the four GOP front-runners in the large field: state Reps. Jody Barrett, Lee Reeves, and Gino Bulso, and former state General Services Commissioner Matt Van Epps.

Reeves loaned himself $300,000 on top of nearly $270,000 he’s raised, while Barrett benefitted from a significant investment from House Freedom Action, the political arm of the conservative Freedom Caucus, to the tune of $300,000.

Barrett has also faced a barrage of outside spending against him for his vote against the state’s school-voucher program. The School Freedom Fund, an organ of the Club for Growth, spent $649,000 opposing Barrett.

Van Epps consolidated support from Green, Republican Gov. Bill Lee, and Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio.

Polling of the primary has been scarce, but a memo from House Freedom Action, which backed Barrett, found a whopping 77 percent of voters undecided. With such a large field and no runoffs, the nominee could scrape across the finish line with just 20 percent of the vote.

Early vote reports suggest another low-turnout affair on Tuesday. Through Oct. 1, only around 15,000 people had voted in the GOP primary and 14,580 in the Democratic primary.

Republicans returning more early ballots does not bode well for Democrats. The party has made gains with voters more likely to turn out in special or off-year elections, but they’ll need to improve on that share in December if they want any chance of flipping the seat. Democratic ballots in rural counties are up 35 percent compared to past cycles, suggesting that there is a slight enthusiasm bump.

That’s the glimmer of good news Tennessee Democrats are searching for.

They are holding on to hope that this special election will serve as their elusive “We are here!” moment, and the national calvary will arrive. In addition to the special election and the race in the 5th District, the third seat in the Nashville trifecta is open after Rep. John Rose announced he was leaving Congress to run for governor. This isn’t exactly a target-rich environment for a national party, but with Republicans redrawing more seats in their favor nationally, Democrats could do a lot worse than taking a look at Middle Tennessee.

“This is a wonderful opportunity to invest in a deep red state and a great candidate, hopefully me, and to turn the tide of the South, because, as W.E.B. Du Bois said, 'As goes the South, so goes the nation,'” Behn said.