Sept. 30, 2025, 2:49 p.m.
President Trump is definitely not looking to run for a third term, despite his trolling answers when reporters ask about it. How do I know? Because he’s governing like a president who has absolutely nothing to lose and does not care what people think.
He isn’t hiding it, either. Most recently, Trump told Politico he doesn’t care if Republicans get the blame for a government shutdown: “I don’t worry about that. People that are smart see what’s happening.”
In a way, that is exactly what has always drawn his base to him—his refusal to say or do what is expected of him. But his second term is starkly different from his first term in that we see more norms cast aside, more unilateral executive actions, and yes, a more aggressive pursuit of vengeance.
Trump famously said “I am your retribution” in campaign rallies last year, meaning he intended to retaliate for his state and federal prosecutions at the hands of Democrats or Democratic-appointed officials during his time out of office. As with all of Trump’s rally ramblings, it was unclear what he would follow through with and what was just bluster.
Just over eight months into his second term, we know the answer. Former FBI Director James Comey is under indictment, and Trump is clamoring for charges to be brought against New York Attorney General Letitia James, Sen. Adam Schiff, and others.
But in spite of his slogans, Trump wasn’t elected to exact retribution—at least not by the swing voters who decided the election. Those voters were motivated by his promises to lower prices and secure the border. Polling shows that only his Republican base really thinks he has made progress on prices, while most people think his immigration enforcement has gone too far.
When confronted with his lackluster ratings, Trump mostly just rails against pollsters, calling for them to be fired or investigated for fraud. He continues to work on his own agenda, including retribution, constant Immigration and Customs Enforcement raids, and tariffs, which economists and historians agree raise prices, not lower them.
In short, Trump is doing what he wants, not what is popular. In some ways he may be playing the long game—seeking to secure his legacy, positioning himself for popularity in future history books more than now. He truly believes that tariffs and any trade deals he secures using tariffs as leverage will leave the U.S. in a stronger position, and that mass deportations are good in the long run. You see other hints of thinking about his legacy in smaller-scale actions, like building a ballroom at the White House, redesigning the Rose Garden, and choosing a location for his presidential library.
It’s also worth noting that while Trump has lost ground in the polls on his signature issues of costs and immigration, his overall approval ratings haven’t moved since dropping off from a brief honeymoon effect in the spring. According to The New York Times poll average, his approvals have hovered between 46 percent and 43 percent since early April. The rate has bounced between 43 percent and 44 percent for the last three months.
If you glance at the chart, disapproval seems to be up in recent weeks—but only by a point or two. These are not meaningful differences because of uncertainty in polling, even in a polling average. It only looks significant in the chart because the scale of the chart is zoomed in.
The numbers may be inconsequential for Trump, but it’s a sure bet that congressional Republicans watch his ratings closely. They have to run on his record in 2026. Trump’s attention on retribution, tariffs, and ICE raids certainly keeps the Republican base energized, but not focusing enough on lowering the cost of living is likely to cost Republicans votes from independents that they need to hold the House majority.
History says Trump is likely to lose the House majority in 2026, anyway, so it’s unclear how much he is banking on keeping a trifecta. He has made extensive use of executive orders and the executive branch to implement his policies, and so far, the Republican Congress and the conservative-majority Supreme Court haven’t offered much resistance.
A Democratic House majority is unlikely to shift that strategy much. Whichever party controls Congress, Trump can keep signing executive orders all he wants. A change in majority would have major consequences for things like funding the government—if we weren’t already deadlocked on that issue. Neither party is likely to have 60 votes in the Senate any time soon, so we’re looking at a lot more government shutdowns if no one figures out how to negotiate. That doesn’t change with a Democratic House majority.
Whichever way 2026 goes, Trump won’t be bothered. He’s working for himself and his legacy.
Contributing editor Natalie Jackson is a vice president at GQR Research.
