Sept. 22, 2025, 1:35 p.m.
From Ukraine to Sudan, from Colombia to Myanmar, inexpensive commercial drones are changing the face of warfare, and conventional Western militaries are failing to meet the moment.
On Sept. 10, Polish and NATO allied aircraft scrambled to fire at a small swarm of cheap Russian drones that invaded Polish airspace. The drones were mainly of the unarmed Gerbera variety, which Russia often uses on the battlefield as a decoy. The Gerbera drones are made of Chinese components and other inexpensive materials, such as wood and Styrofoam, costing around $10,000 each to manufacture. Still, they managed to close four Polish airports, destroy a house—and spark a panic.
Polish, Dutch, and German fighter jets succeeded in shooting down only a handful of the drones, and they spent up to several million dollars to do so. Experts say this scenario will become more common if policymakers and military appropriators don’t invest resources into technologies to combat unmanned aerial systems.
“The problem is that for industries it’s difficult to keep pace, because you need to invest a lot of resources to develop these systems quickly. But at the same time, if there are no contracts in place, then who wants to pay in advance for research and development, or even a production line, if there is no certainty that the government will buy them?” said Federico Borsari, a fellow with the transatlantic defense and security program at the Center for European Policy Analysis.
“There is not necessarily the right amount of awareness across the policymaking community and appropriators. Those who have the authority to approve the budget at the government level are not necessarily aware of the seriousness of the threat,” he continued.
Borsari stressed that the U.S. has already invested more in new drone technologies over the past several years than European governments have.
The Defense Department is testing and experimenting with new drones, U.S. troops have been using virtual reality and simulations to train, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has made drone adoption a priority.
Meanwhile, some countries bordering Russia and Ukraine, including the Baltic states and Poland, are starting to understand the threat.
Polish Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz traveled to Ukraine on Thursday for talks on how to develop Poland’s drone capabilities. The visit was a direct response to Russia's recent incursion, and Kosiniak-Kamysz said the two neighbors would sign a cooperation agreement and pursue joint drone-operating capabilities.
Still, the vast majority of European militaries have continued to invest in costly anti-ballistic-missile defense systems even as the threat from unmanned aerial systems has become more serious.
The Islamic State began experimenting with small drones as far back as 2015. Since then, non-state actors have adopted drones in places such as Sudan, where the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces are using kamikaze drones to strike long-range targets, or Colombia, where drug cartels and other criminal groups use drones to monitor their business interests and attack rivals.
But the full-scale war in Ukraine, which began when Russia invaded its smaller neighbor in early 2022, has led to unprecedented innovations in drone technology.
Russia now typically uses Gerbera drones to saturate Ukrainian air defense radar and make it harder for the Ukrainian air force to shoot down the deadly Shahed drones that Moscow often uses to destroy military and civilian infrastructure. The Gerbera drones accompany the Shahed drones to flood the system and force Ukrainian air defense to waste expensive interceptors.
Occasionally Moscow also uses Gerbera drones for reconnaissance, attaching sensors and cameras to identify military infrastructure and positions. German officials say they’ve spotted Russian reconnaissance drones surveilling military infrastructure and U.S. weapons supplies headed for Ukraine. Some are concerned the drones might be collecting information for future hybrid attacks and sabotage missions.
“Even if the drone is shot down or destroyed, it’s not a problem, because it is cheaply produced. And so Russia can produce them at scale, and it’s not problematic if they lose many of them,” Borsari said.
European governments have largely failed to deploy specialized technologies to counter unmanned aerial systems along the eastern flank and respond quickly to Russian drone incursions.
When a Russian drone entered Romanian airspace on Sept. 13, fighter jet pilots opted not to shoot it down, fearing collateral damage. The drone eventually returned to Ukrainian airspace unscathed. The incident was further evidence that NATO allies are unprepared for drone warfare, a fact that many European officials, speaking on background in order to talk candidly, are willing to concede.
One country that is meeting the moment is Ukraine. Kyiv is quickly developing domestic interceptor drones that can cost as little as $1,000. The devices are much more cost-effective than Western-made Patriot missile systems. Still, it’s unclear how successful these less expensive systems have been so far at keeping up with Russia’s drone innovations.
“The innovation cycle is constantly moving,” said Joshua Kroeker, CEO of the Reaktion Group, a geopolitical-risk firm focused on Ukraine and Russia. “We [in the West] are so far behind, and we need to catch up. Many Ukrainians are saying that the things that Western governments are delivering when it comes to drones and these AI technological aspects [are] already out of date, and they can’t even use them. The innovation is happening in Ukraine.”
There’s some risk that Russia is already winning the innovation war, with Ukraine pulling ahead of the West but lagging behind Moscow when it comes to drone development. Western sanctions are only making a small dent in Russia’s ability to produce inexpensive drones, Kroeker noted, and Western semiconductor chips are found in many Russian unmanned aerial systems. Many officials in both the U.S. and Europe express concern that their governments haven’t started to grapple with this new reality.
Counter-drone technology “should become a priority for all NATO militaries, and this is a message that I will never be tired of conveying,” said Borsari of CEPA. “It would be a mistake to continue on the current path.”
