July 29, 2025, 2:40 p.m.
It’s a fun time to be a public opinion analyst: Everyone hates everything. President Trump’s popularity is falling. Not to be outdone, Democrats are also hitting all-time lows in favorability across several polls. But at the same time, Democrats lead in most generic congressional ballot questions.
Squaring this circle is not that hard: Most voters don’t like Trump, his party, or the opposition. It’s not a new phenomenon. I wrote back in 2023 about how the public is cranky about everything—and understandably so. A change of administration didn’t help matters for more than about two weeks.
Groups that shifted toward Trump in the 2024 election are reverting back to disapproving of the job he’s doing in office, including independents, young people, and Latinos. The reasons for Trump’s decline are obvious. In addition to the typical post-inauguration slide, his policies are extremely divisive.
He hasn’t really done anything to bring prices down. His immigration policies are popular in general, but the specifics of who is being detained and deported are unpopular. Cutting government waste, fraud, and abuse is popular, but mass firings and fewer available services are unpopular.
Republicans in Congress have managed to get a few things done—notably, passing Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill—but the bill itself is unpopular. And even as they pass legislation, both the House and Senate have narrow enough majorities that there is drama in every major vote. Now we’re entering the appropriations process, which requires a bipartisan effort to get through the Senate. That looks like a very tall order.
Democrats have historically low favorability ratings after the country’s lurch to the right in 2024, primarily because the base is unhappy with their leaders' inability to immediately stop Trump’s and Republicans’ actions. Indeed, it is difficult to stymie the majority party when they hold unified control of government. But Dems are still planning to support their own in 2026—the drop in favorability does not extend to congressional votes.
It’s too early to read much into the data for next year’s election, but it’s actually quite comforting that Democrats still lead the congressional ballot poll question despite their low ratings. It shows that there are some rules of politics that still apply in the Trump era. And this particular rule is that the party holding the presidency loses seats in Congress in the midterm elections.
Let’s be clear, though: Voters still dislike both parties. Public opinion isn’t a see-saw; when Republicans get less popular, Democrats don’t necessarily have to become more popular, or vice versa. There’s more than enough dislike to go around.
It’s true that voters used to like both parties more. Current levels of dissatisfaction are in part a result of increased polarization and declining trust in pretty much everything over the last 25 years. When half the country can’t stand your side no matter what, it’s harder to get positive ratings.
It’s also true that voters see Congress not getting much done. Older voters remember a time when Congress was productive and the legislative and executive branches worked together even when different parties controlled them. Perhaps the point of no return was when then-Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell refused to allow then-President Barack Obama to fill a Supreme Court vacancy in 2016. It was unheard-of at the time. Now that kind of obstruction is expected.
The tighter the spiral of polarization and obstruction swirls, the more difficult it will be to ever undo it. A government so polarized that it can only pass legislation in a two-year period if the winning president’s party also wins the House and Senate is not a government that serves its people very well. The shape of our government is changing in response—it’s no coincidence that recent presidents have used executive orders to make policy instead of going through Congress.
What most voters hear about government and politics, especially if they’re only barely paying attention, is the chaos and the scandals. Washington seems far away and out of touch with their daily lives, and they don’t see any help coming. So we get a pattern where the government changes hands every election—as some voters oscillate between the two parties, hoping that one or the other will be able to make changes that help them, while others oscillate between voting and not voting.
Voters are seeking answers to their problems—and the data show that many have lost faith that either party can deliver. Political gravity nonetheless gives Democrats a midterm advantage. Both things can be, and are, true.
