Hotline’s initial 2026 Senate Power Rankings

Senate Republicans’ four-seat gain during the 2024 cycle could help the party maintain its majority through the remainder of President Trump’s second term. While Republicans hold roughly two-thirds of the seats being contested this cycle, most of them are in states Trump won by double digits.

Nevertheless, Democrats aren’t giving up on their majority hopes yet. Following her caucus’ loss last November, Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairwoman Kirsten Gillibrand said she expected the path back to majority to take at least four years; last month, she said she felt more optimistic about winning the majority in just two.

National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Tim Scott is optimistic about 2026 as well. He said he aims to increase the party’s majority from 53 seats to 55 next year.

Republicans face several obstacles in reaching that 55-seat goal. Two of their top potential recruits—Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp and former New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu—both passed on Senate bids earlier this year in their battleground states. Serious primary challenges against Sens. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana and John Cornyn of Texas could focus GOP attention and resources away from the general election.

Democrats are still waiting for potential recruits on their side to jump in, including former Rep. Mary Peltola of Alaska, Maine Gov. Janet Mills, and former Sen. Sherrod Brown of Ohio. Former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper is expected to launch his campaign next week. The minority party also has its fair share of competitive primaries in Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, and Texas, but the DSCC isn’t opposed to getting involved.

Ohio finds itself off our initial list, despite the Buckeye State’s Senate race last year being decided by just 4 points. Republican Sen. Jon Husted is in good shape ahead of next year’s special election as Democrats search for a strong challenger. A comeback bid from Brown could boost this race’s competitiveness, but he is also considering a gubernatorial bid. A Republican gerrymander of the state’s congressional map mid-cycle could force either Rep. Greg Landsman or Rep. Emilia Sykes to pursue a Senate bid instead; however, neither has won statewide office before.

This is the first edition of Hotline’s Senate Power Rankings for the 2026 cycle. These rankings are based on conversations with operatives, strategists, campaigns, and pollsters in both parties.

1. North Carolina: Open (R)
The retirement of Sen. Thom Tillis has made the Tar Heel State the most competitive Senate race on the 2026 map. The senator’s announcement, following his vote against the president’s cherished One Big Beautiful Bill, provides a clean slate for both parties. Despite the state’s purplish tint, Republicans have held onto both Senate seats since 2014. Yet Democrats won several state-level offices last year, including governor, lieutenant governor, and state attorney general, even as Trump carried the state by 3 points. Both parties’ primaries have been at a standstill as Democrats wait for Cooper and Republicans wait for former Republican National Committee co-chair Lara Trump to decide if they’ll run for the open seat. Cooper should have a glide path to the Democratic nomination when he jumps in next week. Lara Trump could lock up the GOP nomination quickly, leveraging her political and fundraising connections and her last name. If she passes on a Senate bid, several Republicans might look at jumping in, including RNC Chairman Michael Whatley and Rep. Pat Harrigan. Cooper would initially be favored against a generic GOP candidate in a general-election matchup, putting the onus on Republicans to cut into his statewide advantage.

2. Georgia: Sen. Jon Ossoff (D)
Ossoff is the most vulnerable Senate Democrat on the map, running in the wake of Trump’s 2-point win in the state last year. Republicans view the one-term senator’s 2021 runoff win against former Sen. David Perdue as a fluke, believing their party can improve upon their roughly 1-point loss in that race. Democrats argue Ossoff’s eight-figure hauls during the first and second fundraising quarters are evidence of his strength heading into the midterms. The race is already one of the most expensive on the Senate map, totaling more than $13 million in ad reservations so far according to the nonpartisan ad-tracking firm AdImpact. The Republican field is in flux at the moment as Kemp and Trump search for a consensus candidate who can unite the GOP and unseat Ossoff. Rep. Buddy Carter and Insurance Commissioner John King are currently in the race, while Rep. Mike Collins and former University of Tennessee football coach Derek Dooley quietly prepare to run. Dooley notably has personal connections to Kemp, hiring two of his longtime advisers, but faces a skeptical MAGA wing of the party over his political newcomer status. Ossoff has led all four Republicans in hypothetical head-to-head polls, but strategists from both parties expect the race to tighten leading up to Election Day.

3. Maine: Sen. Susan Collins (R)
Consistently defying political gravity, Collins is often torn between her left-leaning constituency and her right-wing party. Her votes against the reconciliation bill and the rescissions package have done her no favors with her colleagues and soured her relationship with the mercurial president. Prior to those votes, a June University of New Hampshire poll had Collins at 57 percent unfavorability among Maine residents. The five-term senator has said she plans to run for reelection, but she hasn’t made a formal announcement. If she chooses to suddenly retire, the ball will be in Democrats’ court. Right now, Democrats are hoping that Mills will jump into the race despite her initial lack of interest. Popular in the state, with 51 percent favorability in the same University of New Hampshire poll, and with a growing profile challenging the Trump administration, Mills could be an ideal candidate for Democrats. Former congressional staffer Jordan Wood, who raised more than $1 million last quarter, is currently running in the Democratic primary. State House Speaker Ryan Fecteau and brewer Dan Kleban could enter if Mills chooses to pass. But don’t count Collins out just yet. She outran Trump by 7 points in 2020 and posted the largest haul—$2.4 million—for a GOP incumbent during the second quarter. This isn’t Collins’s first rodeo. If she chooses to run for reelection, she won’t go down without a fight.

4. Michigan: Open (D)
Holding Michigan was going to be a battle for Democrats in the best of circumstances. Trump carried the Wolverine State twice, posting his strongest result last year. Sen. Gary Peters’s retirement opened the floodgates to a highly competitive field. Flipping the open seat won’t be easy for Republicans, though, especially in a state that hasn’t elected a Senate Republican since 1994. Returning from his narrow loss last year against Sen. Elissa Slotkin, former Rep. Mike Rogers is the current GOP front-runner, with the backing of the NRSC. Rep. Bill Huizenga threatened to rain on his parade before passing on a run on Wednesday. Democrats have a larger field than in 2024, with Rep. Haley Stevens jumping to the head of the pack in recent polling. State Sen. Mallory McMorrow, 2018 gubernatorial candidate Abdul El-Sayed, and state Rep. Joe Tate are also vying for the Democratic nomination. Republicans have consolidated their field early and left Democrats to fight in what could be a messy primary, but Rogers will still need to leverage the name recognition from his last Senate race to turn out Trump voters and compete with strong fundraisers on the Democratic side.

5. New Hampshire: Open (D)
Sen. Jeanne Shaheen’s departure opens up another Democratic-held seat in a purple state, which backed former Vice President Kamala Harris by only 2 points. Republicans believe their party’s success at the state level can translate into their first Senate win since 2010. An April NRSC polling memo touted the GOP’s voter-registration advantage and inroads it has made with independent voters heading into the midterms. Democrats have coalesced behind their desired candidate—Rep. Chris Pappas—believing he can keep the seat blue. Republicans are not so sure whom to nominate. Former Sen. Scott Brown, formerly of Massachusetts, who unsuccessfully challenged Shaheen in 2014, and state Sen. Dan Innis are running, but Trump’s political team is simultaneously trying to recruit its own candidate into the race.

7. Iowa: Sen. Joni Ernst (R)
Ernst is expected to win reelection next year in a state Trump won by 13 points, but Democrats won’t make it easy. MAGA Republicans heavily criticized the senator for initially hesitating to support Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s nomination, calling for her to be primaried. Talk of a primary challenge quieted after she voted to approve Hegseth, but then Democrats raised fury against the senator after she made a grim comment at a May town hall in response to reduced federal Medicaid spending. Taking fire from all sides, Ernst is swatting away retirement rumors, adding that she’ll make a formal campaign announcement in the fall. The senator won reelection in 2020 by roughly 7 points, slightly underperforming Trump’s 9-point margin against Joe Biden. If Ernst decides to retire, the race could become slightly more favorable for Republicans, especially if Rep. Ashley Hinson jumps in. Democrats’ prime weakness is the lack of a clear front-runner for the nomination. State Sen. Zach Wahls, state Rep. J.D. Scholten, and former Knoxville Chamber of Commerce Executive Director Nathan Sage are pursuing bids, while state Rep. Josh Turek and Des Moines School Board Chair Jackie Norris are also thinking of joining the crowded primary.

8. Minnesota: Open (D)
Democratic Sen. Tina Smith’s retirement could have given Republicans an opening for an elusive Senate seat in the North Star State. But Republican Royce White’s rebound Senate bid may dash GOP hopes in a state Harris won by 4 points. The former NBA player lost to Sen. Amy Klobuchar by 16 points last year, spending nearly 70 percent of his campaign expenses on “credit card fees.” After a push from grassroots activists, White unexpectedly won the state GOP’s endorsement during its convention last year, a result Republicans are trying to avoid again. Former Navy SEAL Adam Schwarze is currently running against White, and former NBA player Willie Burton and state Rep. Kristin Robbins are considering bids as well. Regardless of who Republicans nominate, Democrats are confident they can hold onto this seat with either Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan or Rep. Angie Craig as their nominee.

9. Alaska: Sen. Dan Sullivan (R)
Sullivan is set to face his first election under the state’s ranked-choice voting system, looking to avoid a strong challenge for his third term. Republicans are confident the senator can prevail in the reliably conservative state, especially with Alaska-specific provisions included in the GOP's Big Beautiful Bill. Democrats argue the senator’s vote actually makes him vulnerable. They contend the bill’s reductions to federal Medicaid spending won’t be received well in one of the most Medicaid-dependent states. Democrats lack an opponent at the moment, but remain hopeful that Peltola, who’s also mulling gubernatorial and House bids, ultimately decides to challenge Sullivan. Peltola benefitted from ranked-choice voting to win two House races in 2022, but the national headwinds last year were too much for her to overcome. If Peltola opts out, Democrats could struggle to boost a candidate against Sullivan’s name recognition and $3.9 million war chest.

10. Nebraska: Sen. Pete Ricketts (R)
Independent Dan Osborn has returned, but unlike in his closer-than-expected challenge to Sen. Deb Fischer last year, his opponent this year won’t be caught off guard. Ricketts has two terms as governor under his belt and is ready to handle an Osborn candidacy from the start. Fischer won reelection last year by 7 points, although Osborn led in several late polls. Ricketts won a simultaneous special election against a weaker opponent by 25 points. Osborn is targeting Ricketts’s wealth, while attempting to maintain distance from Democrats once again. However, an eleventh-hour donation last year from the Democratic-aligned Senate Majority PAC to a pro-Osborn super PAC could make it difficult for the independent to replicate his 2024 over-performance. An Osborn internal poll released in April found Ricketts ahead by 1 point, suggesting a competitive contest could be on the horizon once again.