SPOTLIGHT

Governor Map Includes Some Non-Traditional Target States

HARTFORD, CT - APRIL 4: Connecticut Gov. Dannel Malloy speaks during the gun control law signing event at the Connecticut Capitol pril 4, 2013 in Hartford, Connecticut, After more than 13 hours of debate, the Connecticut General Assembly approved the gun-control bill early April 4, that proponents see as the toughest-in-the-nation response to the Demember 14, 2012 Newtown school shootings. (Photo by Christopher Capozziello/Getty Images)
National Journal
Scott Bland
See more stories about...
Scott Bland
Aug. 1, 2014, 7:45 a.m.

The old ad­age “all polit­ics is loc­al” seems to ap­ply less of­ten than ever. But it may make a comeback in gubernat­ori­al races this year, as a few states that don’t have much swing at the na­tion­al level have highly com­pet­it­ive races on their hands.

— Even as the num­ber of “cros­sov­er” dis­tricts in Con­gress has shrunk, gov­ernor’s races have al­ways been a little more in­de­pend­ent from na­tion­al polit­ics. At this point, though, most states we think of as Demo­crat­ic have Demo­crat­ic gov­ernors, the Re­pub­lic­an ones have Re­pub­lic­an gov­ernors, and the swing states, ap­pro­pri­ately, have a mix — with a GOP ad­vant­age after the 2010 wave elec­tion.

— 2014 could scramble the map, though. In ad­di­tion to a num­ber of highly com­pet­it­ive battle­ground state cam­paigns, some of the most likely gov­ernor­ships to change parties this year are in non-tra­di­tion­al loc­a­tions. Long-un­pop­u­lar Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn (D), for ex­ample, trails in his own party’s polling against Bruce Rau­ner (R). Quinn’s made comebacks be­fore, but he’s also nev­er faced an op­pon­ent as for­mid­able as Rau­ner. Mean­while, Con­necti­c­ut Gov. Dan­nel Mal­loy (D) is locked in a tight re­match with Tom Fo­ley (R) — again, ac­cord­ing to Demo­crats’ own polling.

— But Demo­crats also have good op­por­tun­it­ies in a few red states. There hasn’t been a pub­lic, live-caller sur­vey in Kan­sas yet, but al­most every robopoll in the past few months has shown state Rep. Paul Dav­is (D) lead­ing con­tro­ver­sial Gov. Sam Brown­back (R). And in Geor­gia, nag­ging eth­ics stor­ies con­tin­ue to weigh down Gov. Nath­an Deal (R) in a tough race versus Jimmy Carter‘s grand­son, state Sen. Jason Carter (D).

Just a few years back, Demo­crats held the gov­ernor­ships of Wyom­ing and Ok­lahoma, and Re­pub­lic­ans held five of six states in New Eng­land. We’re not ex­pect­ing any­thing quite that dra­mat­ic in 2014, but the gov­ernor’s map could move back in that dir­ec­tion.
— Scott Bland

What We're Following See More »
LEGACY PLAY
Sanders and Clinton Spar Over … President Obama
9 hours ago
WHY WE CARE

President Obama became a surprise topic of contention toward the end of the Democratic debate, as Hillary Clinton reminded viewers that Sanders had challenged the progressive bona fides of President Obama in 2011 and suggested that someone might challenge him from the left. “The kind of criticism that we’ve heard from Senator Sanders about our president I expect from Republicans, I do not expect from someone running for the Democratic nomination to succeed President Obama,” she said. “Madame Secretary, that is a low blow,” replied Sanders, before getting in another dig during his closing statement: “One of us ran against Barack Obama. I was not that candidate.”

THE 1%
Sanders’s Appeals to Minorities Still Filtered Through Wall Street Talk
11 hours ago
WHY WE CARE

It’s all about the 1% and Wall Street versus everyone else for Bernie Sanders—even when he’s talking about race relations. Like Hillary Clinton, he needs to appeal to African-American and Hispanic voters in coming states, but he insists on doing so through his lens of class warfare. When he got a question from the moderators about the plight of black America, he noted that during the great recession, African Americans “lost half their wealth,” and “instead of tax breaks for billionaires,” a Sanders presidency would deliver jobs for kids. On the very next question, he downplayed the role of race in inequality, saying, “It’s a racial issue, but it’s also a general economic issue.”

DIRECT APPEAL TO MINORITIES, WOMEN
Clinton Already Pivoting Her Messaging
11 hours ago
WHY WE CARE

It’s been said in just about every news story since New Hampshire: the primaries are headed to states where Hillary Clinton will do well among minority voters. Leaving nothing to chance, she underscored that point in her opening statement in the Milwaukee debate tonight, saying more needs to be done to help “African Americans who face discrimination in the job market” and immigrant families. She also made an explicit reference to “equal pay for women’s work.” Those boxes she’s checking are no coincidence: if she wins women, blacks and Hispanics, she wins the nomination.

THE QUESTION
How Many Jobs Would Be Lost Under Bernie Sanders’s Single-Payer System?
19 hours ago
THE ANSWER

More than 11 million, according to Manhattan Institute fellow Yevgeniy Feyman, writing in RealClearPolicy.

Source:
WEEKEND DATA DUMP
State to Release 550 More Clinton Emails on Saturday
19 hours ago
THE LATEST

Under pressure from a judge, the State Department will release about 550 of Hillary Clinton’s emails—“roughly 14 percent of the 3,700 remaining Clinton emails—on Saturday, in the middle of the Presidents Day holiday weekend.” All of the emails were supposed to have been released last month. Related: State subpoenaed the Clinton Foundation last year, which brings the total number of current Clinton investigations to four, says the Daily Caller.

Source:
×