How Democrats could see blue in Green’s seat

Republican Rep. Mark Green’s surprise resignation announcement tees up another barometric test for Democrats as they look to put a check on President Trump and flip the House in the midterms.

Green announced this week that he will resign after the House vote on the Senate’s version of the budget-reconciliation bill, expected in early July. The vacancy will lead to a special election in the Middle Tennessee seat. Despite partisan headwinds—President Trump carried the 7th District by 20 points—the race could play into Democrats’ hands in the right conditions.

Earlier this year, Democrats posted overperformances in two deep-red special elections in Florida. Trump had carried the two seats by more than 30 points in November, yet Democrats came within 15 points of winning.

Shortly after the closer-than-expected races, the White House pulled the nomination of Rep. Elise Stefanik of New York to be ambassador to the United Nations out of fear of losing her seat in a special election. Trump carried Stefanik's North Country seat by about 20 points—the same margin as Green’s seat.

“This is so exciting,” Davidson County Democratic Party Chair Dakota Galban told National Journal.

Galban said the special election presents a unique opportunity for Democrats given recent party performances in special elections. But a few things still need to go their way.

Democrats have historically performed better in special elections in which higher-propensity voters make up a larger share of the electorate. That has contributed to several strong special-election performances up and down the ballot across the country this year. Catalist, a Democratic data firm, found that Democrats performed better among more consistent voters in 2024.

Per state law, Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee must declare a special election within 10 days of the vacancy. Statute allows the timeline to go two directions, according to information from the secretary of state’s office shared with National Journal. The governor could call a general election within 130 to 135 days of the proclamation, with the primary occurring 75 to 80 days afterward. The other option is more expedited; the election would occur within 100 to 107 days and a primary 55 to 60 days after the announcement.

Despite an uncertain timeline, the field is already developing to replace Green. Republican Jason Knight, a Montgomery County commissioner, launched his campaign Wednesday.

Knight leaned into his military experience, saying his experience running for county commissioner will prevent the seat from flipping, even if Democrats perform better than expected.

“I believe in duty, honor, and country, and I think those values will ensure that this seat stays within Republican hands,” said Knight, who did three combat tours in Iraq and Afghanistan and continues to serve as a major in the Army Reserve.

A local Democratic strategist said the party has been performing well enough in special elections for several Democrats to consider a bid. Clarksville Mayor Joe Pitts, as well as state Reps. Vincent Dixie and Bo Mitchell, could jump into the race.

“I think we need to consolidate around a single Democratic candidate,” Galban said. “I don’t think we can afford to have a competitive primary.”

A GOP analysis of the statewide, federal, and presidential results in the district shared with National Journal found that only once since 2018 has a Republican carried the seat by fewer than 10 points. Former Gov. Phil Bredesen, the last Democrat to win statewide in the Volunteer State, lost this seat by half a point during his Senate run that year.

National Democrats have not put the district on their battlefield for the midterms, instead focusing on the neighboring 5th District, which is 2 points bluer and represented by Republican Rep. Andy Ogles, who carries some baggage from investigations into his campaign finance filings.

But in a special election, the soon-to-be-vacant 7th District offers some optimism. The seat carries significant urban and suburban populations, and roughly a fifth of its voters are Black, a demographic that traditionally favors the Democratic Party.

Democratic former Rep. Jim Cooper, who represented the Nashville area for 20 years, told National Journal that a “middle-of-the-road nominee who would follow the long Tennessee political tradition of moderation” could perform well and potentially win a difficult seat like this.

But, Cooper said, the work will be hard.

“I’m not sure the Democratic Party still exists in Tennessee as a viable force,” he said. “But I tell folks this is actually the best time to be a Democratic candidate,” citing the surprise vacancy, Republican Rep. John Rose’s run for governor, and Ogles’ legal trouble.

Even if Democrats were to pull off an upset, they’d likely only hold it temporarily. The seat would be all but certain to flip back to Republican hands in the midterms, given its strong Republican lean.

Republicans don’t expect it to get that far.

“This is a ruby-red district,” National Republican Congressional Committee spokeswoman Maureen O’Toole told National Journal.

“Enough said.”