April 30, 2025, 4:03 p.m.
No stranger to high-profile governor races, the Peach State is bracing for yet another brutal battle next year.
Of the 36 contests for chief executive in 2026, Georgia’s is one of just six considered a true coin toss. Term-limited Republican Gov. Brian Kemp’s absence from the ballot increases the stakes, with Democrats eyeing the opportunity to flip the governor’s mansion in an open-seat race after a series of near-misses over the last two cycles.
“This is an opportunity for people who want to run for governor [that] we're not going to see again for a decade, because there is no incumbent,” said Democratic pastor Olu Brown, who launched his long-shot bid last year, said in an interview with National Journal. “So it's wide open on the Republican side, wide open on the Democrat side, and wide open on the independent side.”
Despite recent Democratic victories at the federal level in Georgia, state-level success has been more elusive. In 2018, Democratic nominee Stacey Abrams came within striking distance of flipping the governor’s mansion, losing to Kemp, then the secretary of state, by less than 2 points. Abrams’ masterful get-out-the-vote operation paved the way for Democratic Sens. Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock to represent their party in Washington, but when it came to her second fight against Kemp in 2022, the game had changed. Kemp entered his reelection bid as a formidable incumbent, and Abrams was unable to replicate the tight margins of her first contest. In the end, Kemp more than doubled his margin of victory, and Abrams’s campaign was in financial ruin.
Despite her back-to-back defeats, Abrams is still considered a potential candidate for governor next year. Her superstardom froze the field in years past, but her shine has dimmed in the four years since her second loss. In addition to Brown, state Sen. Jason Esteves launched his campaign last week, becoming the first major Democrat in the race. In an announcement video last week, Esteves emphasized his background in education as a former teacher and chair of the Atlanta Public Schools Board of Education.
Former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms is expected to join Esteves in the race soon. On Monday, Bottoms took a formal step towards a gubernatorial bid by filing paperwork to begin raising money.
Bottoms would have a number of advantages, including the enthusiastic support of Black women in the state and high name recognition in the Atlanta metro. While her tenure as mayor has been heralded for her support of social justice issues including affordable housing, she will also be met with questions regarding her unusual and abrupt decision not to seek reelection in 2021.
“While I am not yet certain of what the future holds,” she said at the time, “I trust that my next season will continue to be one full of passion and purpose, guided by the belief that within each of us is the power and responsibility to make a positive difference in the lives of others.”
In an interview with National Journal, former DeKalb County CEO Michael Thurmond said he is also keeping his options open on a gubernatorial bid. Thurmond said he has been traveling the state for the last six months to get a better sense of how Georgians are feeling about the state of their state and country.
“It's been a very enlightening process. Speaking specifically to Democrats, many are really just depressed and distressed, and helping me to better understand how to move the state forward as a candidate for governor,” Thurmond said.
Thurmond also emphasized that his distinction among the Democratic candidates is that he is the only one to win a statewide election, having served three terms as the Georgia labor commissioner.
“I'm very familiar with Georgia and Georgians, and I will bring that knowledge and expertise,” he said.
While Democratic operatives are expressing confidence in their growing bench, two of the party’s most high-profile potentials—Rep. Lucy McBath and former state Sen. Jason Carter, the grandson of President Carter and 2014 nominee for governor—have taken their names out of the running as their spouses are both battling cancer.
Stark ideological differences between the Democratic candidates aren’t expected, but the GOP primary has the potential to highlight fractures within the party. While primaries centering on loyalty to President Trump have become commonplace in Republican politics, the contest in Georgia could be particularly illustrative as candidates find themselves on opposing sides of Trump’s 2020 stolen-election conspiracy theories.
State Attorney General Chris Carr is the only candidate in the race thus far, having launched his bid in November of last year. Carr has been supportive of Trump’s second term, but he has a complicated relationship with the president. Like Kemp and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, who is also considered a potential 2026 gubernatorial candidate, Carr refused to participate in Trump’s attempts to overturn his 2020 loss in Georgia. Carr’s refusal drew the ire of Trump, who endorsed his unsuccessful primary opponent in the 2022 elections.
While Carr will likely feel the heat from Trump’s most loyal voters, he is taking the bet that others are looking for a continuation of the “proven conservative” leadership that was found with Kemp, the late Sen. Johnny Isakson, and former Gov. Nathan Deal.
“I’ve seen what it takes to be successful,” Carr told the Associated Press last year. “And I want to run as the proven conservative who will create jobs for hardworking Georgians, keep our families and neighborhoods safe, and vigorously defend our Constitution and freedoms.”
Carr is all but certain to face Lt. Gov. Burt Jones in the primary. In stark contrast to Carr’s refusal to overturn the Peach State’s election results, Jones was one of Georgia’s “fake electors” who cast ballots for Trump at the state Capitol after his loss to former President Biden was certified. Another conservative firebrand, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, told The Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s podcast in February that she was open to either a run for governor or Senate in 2026.
As in all midterm contests, the success or failure of the first years of the president's term is expected to impact the mood of the general-election electorate in the purple state.
“Look, Trump could totally implode. Tariffs go off the wall, the economy tanks, and suddenly everybody's running like scalded cats from having to be associated with the guy,” former state GOP chair and state Senate Minority Leader Chuck Clay told National Journal. “But that's not true right now.”
