After next week, primary season will rekindle for its last stretch before everyone can finally focus entirely on the general election. And the first week back could end up being the most dangerous primary week of the year for incumbents.
— Two House incumbents are more likely to lose than not: Rep. Kerry Bentivolio (R-MI) and Scott DesJarlais (R-TN). But don’t write them into any broader pattern. Bentivolio, who was the only other Republican on the ballot in MI-11 when Thad McCotter‘s fradulent nominating petitions were thrown out, is the definition of an accidental congressman, while the 2012 revelations that DesJarlais had sexual relationships with co-workers and medical patients and pressured one to have an abortion destroyed his standing with Republicans. Both attracted very well-funded challengers with business and establishment GOP support.
— Other incumbents up at the beginning of August are better-positioned, though some still face potentially difficult challenges. Ex-Rep. Todd Tiahrt‘s (R) KS-04 comeback attempt also defies political pigeonholing. Many of the groups backing Rep. Mike Pompeo (R) had few ideological quibbles with Tiahrt while he was in Congress, per their vote scorecards, but they’re sticking with the incumbent. Both candidates are accusing the other of cronyism, and Pompeo is using Tiahrt’s service against him by attacking him over earmarks. Meanwhile, most still expect Sen. Pat Roberts (R-KS) to win renomination, but physician Milton Wolf (R) hasn’t faded as far as people thought after his X-ray controversy.
— Then, in Hawaii‘s traditional Saturday primary, there’s the lone big Democratic Senate primary of the cycle, pitting appointed Sen. Brian Schatz (D) against Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D), who wanted that appointment in the first place and was backed by late Sen. Daniel Inouye. That race and Gov. Neil Abercrombie‘s (D) contested primary are studies in contrast among Hawaii Democrats, highlighting ethnic differences, generational differences, and a long-term ideological shift within the state party.
Only two congressional incumbents have lost primaries this year (though as we’ve noted, that by itself isn’t a full measure of incumbent strength and weakness). As primaries restart, that figure could go up fast.
— Scott Bland
What We're Following See More »
"Sen. Bernie Sanders, a loyal soldier for Hillary Clinton since he conceded the Democratic presidential nomination in July, plans to push liberal legislation with like-minded senators with or without Clinton’s support if she is elected— and to aggressively oppose appointments that do not pass muster with the party’s left wing." Sanders and other similarly inclined senators are already "plotting legislation" on climate change, prison reform, the minimum wage, and tuition-free college.
"The political organization of Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe, an influential Democrat with longstanding ties to Bill and Hillary Clinton, gave nearly $500,000 to the election campaign of the wife of an official at the Federal Bureau of Investigation who later helped oversee the investigation into Mrs. Clinton’s email use."
Baseball great Curt Schilling says he still needs to clear a challenge to Sen. Elizabeth Warren with his wife, but in the meantime, he's found something to occupy him: the former hurler is going to host a daily online radio show on Breitbart.com. "The show marks Schilling’s return to media six months after ESPN fired him for sharing an anti-transgender Facebook post."
The New Yorker has endorsed Hillary Clinton, saying that "barring some astonishment," she will become the next president. Calling Clinton "distinctly capable," the magazine excoriates Donald Trump as a candidate who "favors conspiracy theory and fantasy, deriving his knowledge from the darker recesses of the Internet and 'the shows.'" Additionally, the historical nature of the possibility of "send[ing] a woman to the White House" is not lost on the editors, who note the possibility more than once in the endorsement.
AT&T agreed to a deal on Saturday to buy Time Warner Inc. for a reported $85.4 billion, a merger that would turn AT&T into a media giant. The two companies announced that they hope to have the deal closed by the end of 2017. However, the completion of the deal will likely not be smooth sailing, as the deal faces potential backlash from antitrust workers, as well as lawmakers. Following the merger's announcement, multiple lawmakers raised skepticism and said they plan to scrutinize the deal further, with Minn. Sen. Amy Klobuchar calling for a hearing.