What’s sticking out in the flood of fundraising numbers coming out this month? The Hotline found plenty to buy and sell in these reports:
— Senate. The most glaring fundraising disparity of the quarter was in North Carolina: Sen. Kay Hagan‘s (D) $3.6 million far outpaced the $1.6 million Thom Tillis raised, as the state House speaker toils in an extended special legislative session. The other EMILY’s List nominees in Georgia and Kentucky raised about as much or more. Meanwhile, Rep. Tom Cotton (R-AR) outraised Sen. Mark Pryor (D) again, and state Sen. Joni Ernst‘s (R) quarter in Iowa was important considering her previous fundraising struggles — but even though she bested Rep. Bruce Braley (D-IA), she still has catching up to do in cash on hand.
— House. Rep. Mike Coffman (R-CO) ($742,000) and challenger Andrew Romanoff (D) ($842,000) are both winners: They’re keeping pace with each other and might be the best-equipped opponents out there to define themselves in outside spending-dominated House races. Rep. Patrick Murphy‘s (D-FL) continued strong fundraising ($752,000) has helped keep his race quiet, while Rep. Chris Gibson‘s (R-NY) $819,000 quarter was especially important given Sean Eldridge‘s (D) self-funding ability. But further south in New York, Rep. Michael Grimm‘s (R) paltry $71,000 means he might run out of money quickly in the fall — when outside help might not be there, either.
— Governors. Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R), who raised $8.2 million from January through June, is a sound stand-in for the ranks of incumbent guvs vastly outraising their competition. (Mary Burke (D) raised $3.6 million and trails Walker in cash 3-to-1.) Georgia state Sen. Jason Carter (D) was one of the few to buck the trend. But in Massachusetts, favorite Martha Coakley‘s (D) efforts have been underwhelming, both compared to Democratic rivals and especially to Charlie Baker (R).
Candidate fundraising doesn’t mean what it used to, but it’s still important — and more than a few candidates have something to celebrate or mourn in the recent reports.
— Hotline Staff
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Democratic National Committee Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz "will not have a major speaking role or preside over daily convention proceedings this week," and is under increasing pressure to resign. The DNC Rules Committee on Saturday named Ohio Democratic Rep. Marcia Fudge as "permanent chair of the convention." At issue: internal DNC emails leaked by Wikileaks that show how "the DNC favored Clinton during the primary and tried to take down Bernie Sanders by questioning his religion."
- A Rasmussen Reports poll shows Donald Trump ahead of Hillary Clinton, 43%-42%, the fourth week in a row he's led the poll (one of the few poll in which he's led consistently of late).
- A Reuters/Ipsos survey shows Clinton leading 40%-36%. In a four-way race, she maintains her four-point lead, 39%-35%, with Gary Johnson and Jill Stein pulling 7% and 3%, respectively.
- And the LA Times/USC daily tracking poll shows a dead heat, with Trump ahead by about half a percentage point.
In an election between two candidates around 70 years of age, millennials strongly prefer one over the other. Hillary Clinton has a 47%-30% edge among votes 18 to 29. She also leads 46%-36% among voters aged 30 to 44.
According to an online tracking poll released by New Latino Voice, Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump among Latino voters, attracting support from 81 percent of Latino voters, to just 12 percent support for Trump. The results of this poll are consistent with those from a series of other surveys conducted by various organizations. With Pew Research predicting the 2016 electorate will be 12 percent Hispanic, which would be the highest ever, Trump could be in serious trouble if he can't close the gap.