With the likelihood of an extended government shutdown increasing, it’s time to take stock of political winners and losers.
— Most at risk is Ken Cuccinelli, campaigning alongside Ted Cruz this weekend. He’s out with a new radio ad, a preemptive strike declaring his opposition to a shutdown and turning the tables on McAuliffe. But that only underscores how vulnerable he is. Mitch McConnell can’t win, facing fire from his right for privately floating a compromise and from Dems for looking helpless as the shutdown goes on. Paul Ryan, the GOP’s Congressional flavor of 2012, has been virtually invisible, eclipsed by a more confrontational cadre of conservatives.
— Dems face problems, too. There’s been a Democratic divide, between those in conservative House seats and those representing Republican states. Maintaining a united front, Senate Dems have stood together. But for the red-state Dems up (Pryor/Landrieu/Begich) in 2014, their votes against short-term funding could backfire, and will be used as fodder in GOP challengers’ campaign ads. There’s a reason swing-district House Dems ““ even Dan Maffei and Steven Horsford — voted with Republicans.
— There’s a bipartisan list of winners. Harry Reid‘s chances of remaining Majority Leader ticked up a bit. Ambitious GOP governors like Christie, Jindal and Snyder can run against Washington dysfunction without costing them conservative bona fides. In the wake of Ted Cruz’s activism, Rand Paul now looks downright pragmatic. Democratic challengers from competitive suburban House seats, like Andrew Romanoff (CO-06) and Kevin Strouse (PA-08), are now looking more credible.
One final winner: Incumbency. Despite the “throw the bums out” sentiment, it’s unlikely 2014 will be a wave election. Cook rates only 67 of 435 House seats (15%) as potentially competitive, a product of the ideological realignment that took place over the last several elections.
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If a new poll is to be believed, Hillary Clinton has a big lead in the all-important swing state of Pennsylvania. A new Suffolk University survey shows her ahead of Donald Trump, 50%-41%. In a four-way race, she maintains her nine-point lead, 46%-37%. "Pennsylvania has voted Democratic in the past six presidential elections, going back to Bill Clinton’s first win in 1992. Yet it is a rust belt state that could be in play, as indicated by recent general-election polling showing a close race."
"President Barack Obama has chosen Jackson Park, a lakefront park that once hosted the world’s fair on the city’s South Side, for his $500 million presidential library, according to a person familiar with the matter."
Wednesday was the third night in a row that the Democratic convention enjoyed a ratings win over the Republican convention last week. Which might have prompted a fundraising email from Donald Trump exhorting supporters not to watch. "Unless you want to be lied to, belittled, and attacked for your beliefs, don't watch Hillary's DNC speech tonight," the email read. "Instead, help Donald Trump hold her accountable, call out her lies and fight back against her nasty attacks."
The Clintons will retain their Secret Service "code names from the last time they lived in the White House. Hillary Clinton is EVERGREEN and Bill ClintonEAGLE. Donald Trump is MOGUL, according to reports, and Melania Trump MUSE. The vice presidents get code names, too: Mike Pence is HOOSIER—a little on the nose—and his wife HUMMINGBIRD. Tim Kaine is DAREDEVIL, somewhat ambitiously. His wife's? To be determined."