Spotlight

Land of Hopes and Dreams

WASHINGTON, DC - SEPTEMBER 30: U.S. House Minority Leader Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) speaks as (L-R) Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD), Assistant House Minority Leader Rep. James Clyburn (D-SC), House Democratic Caucus Vice Chairman Rep. Joseph Crowley (D-NY), House Democratic Caucus Chairman Rep. Xavier Becerra (D-CA), and House Minority Whip Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-MD) listen during a news conference September 30, 2013 on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC. The U.S. government was officially shut down at midnight after the Senate and the House of the Representatives failed to come to an agreement to pass a federal spending bill to keep the government running.
National Journal
Josh Kraushaar
Add to Briefcase
Josh Kraushaar
Oct. 7, 2013, 7:48 a.m.

Demo­crats are en­ter­tain­ing the pro­spect that Re­pub­lic­an in­transigence over the budget and debt ceil­ing could put the House in play for 2014. So with the pos­sib­il­ity of these crises worsen­ing, it’s worth ex­amin­ing what would need to hap­pen for them to net the 17 seats ne­ces­sary to pull off a his­tor­ic up­set.

— The crit­ic­al num­ber for Dems is 45, the num­ber of GOP-held House seats with a Cook PVI of R+4 or bet­ter. They need to re­cruit cred­ible can­did­ates in at least 25 of them to have any hope of com­pet­ing. Even in a wave elec­tion, not every com­pet­it­ive race goes one party’s dir­ec­tion. And re­mem­ber: these in­clude battle-tested mem­bers now run­ning in ger­ry­mandered seats (Ger­lach, Reich­ert, Dent) and ones un­likely to draw much op­pos­i­tion (Paul Ry­an, Randy For­bes).

— If the Wash­ing­ton grid­lock is giv­ing Demo­crats a de­cis­ive edge, ex­pect to see it on the re­cruit­ment front in those dis­tricts. Right now, most of those in­cum­bents aren’t even fa­cing op­pon­ents, and pun­dits aren’t rat­ing the races as po­ten­tially com­pet­it­ive. There’s time for that to change, but fil­ing dead­lines in key battle­ground states aren’t far away (Feb. 2014 in Pa. and Ohio).

— Pay close at­ten­tion to the GOP-friendly sub­urb­an House dis­tricts. The big bell­weth­ers if a wave is emer­ging: Dav­id Joyce (OH-14), Mike Turn­er (OH-10), Erik Paulsen (MN-03), Re­id Ribble (WI-08), Pat Mee­han (PA-07), and John Kline (MN-02). If they’re in trouble next sum­mer, the House could be in play.

Fi­nally, a real­ity check on the PPP/Mo­ve­On.org polls: They tested GOP mem­bers against gen­er­ic Dem can­did­ates, res­ults de­signed to give overly-op­tim­ist­ic read­ings of any race. And they didn’t sur­vey any of the nine Dems in Rom­ney CDs, who would have shown sim­il­ar vul­ner­ab­il­it­ies. Take their con­clu­sions with a big grain of salt.

What We're Following See More »
WILL LEAD U.S. DELEGATION
Obama to Travel to Israel for Peres’s Funeral
1 minutes ago
THE DETAILS
FOUR-POINT LEAD IN FOUR-WAY RACE
Reuters/Ipsos Shows Clinton Ahead by 6
3 minutes ago
THE LATEST

In one of the first polls released since Monday night's debate, a Reuters/Ipsos survey shows Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump 44%-38%. When third-party candidates are thrown into the mix, Clinton's share of the vote drops to 42%, with Gary Johnson picking up 7% and Jill Stein at 2%.

Source:
NO SHUTDOWN
Senate Votes to Fund Government
1 hours ago
THE LATEST

The Senate voted on Wednesday 72-26 on a bill to fund the government through Dec. 9, averting a looming shutdown. The legislation will now go to the House, where it could be voted on as early as Wednesday. After this legislation is approved by the House, Congress will recess until the lame-duck session following elections.

FIRST OVERRIDE OF HIS PRESIDENCY
House Completes Override of Obama Veto
1 hours ago
THE LATEST

"Congress voted Wednesday to override President Obama for the first time in his eight-year tenure, as the House followed the Senate in rejecting a veto of legislation allowing families of terrorist victims to sue Saudi Arabia. The House easily cleared the two-thirds threshold to push back against the veto. The final tally was 348-77, with 18 Republicans and 59 Democrats voting no."

Source:
THEM’S FIGHTIN’ WORDS
Earnest: Overriding Obama’s Veto Was “Embarrassing”
2 hours ago
THE LATEST

Hyperbole alert! Following the Senate's decision to override President Obama's veto of a bill that would allow 9/11 victims to sue Saudi Arabia in U.S. court, the White House has responded forcefully, specifically White House Press Secretary Josh Earnest. "I would venture to say that this is the single most embarrassing thing that the United States Senate has done, possibly, since 1983," Earnest said on Air Force One. The House is likely to follow suit in overriding Obama's veto when it takes up the vote.

Source:
×