Spotlight

Land of Hopes and Dreams

WASHINGTON, DC - SEPTEMBER 30: U.S. House Minority Leader Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) speaks as (L-R) Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD), Assistant House Minority Leader Rep. James Clyburn (D-SC), House Democratic Caucus Vice Chairman Rep. Joseph Crowley (D-NY), House Democratic Caucus Chairman Rep. Xavier Becerra (D-CA), and House Minority Whip Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-MD) listen during a news conference September 30, 2013 on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC. The U.S. government was officially shut down at midnight after the Senate and the House of the Representatives failed to come to an agreement to pass a federal spending bill to keep the government running.
National Journal
Josh Kraushaar
Add to Briefcase
Josh Kraushaar
Oct. 7, 2013, 7:48 a.m.

Demo­crats are en­ter­tain­ing the pro­spect that Re­pub­lic­an in­transigence over the budget and debt ceil­ing could put the House in play for 2014. So with the pos­sib­il­ity of these crises worsen­ing, it’s worth ex­amin­ing what would need to hap­pen for them to net the 17 seats ne­ces­sary to pull off a his­tor­ic up­set.

— The crit­ic­al num­ber for Dems is 45, the num­ber of GOP-held House seats with a Cook PVI of R+4 or bet­ter. They need to re­cruit cred­ible can­did­ates in at least 25 of them to have any hope of com­pet­ing. Even in a wave elec­tion, not every com­pet­it­ive race goes one party’s dir­ec­tion. And re­mem­ber: these in­clude battle-tested mem­bers now run­ning in ger­ry­mandered seats (Ger­lach, Reich­ert, Dent) and ones un­likely to draw much op­pos­i­tion (Paul Ry­an, Randy For­bes).

— If the Wash­ing­ton grid­lock is giv­ing Demo­crats a de­cis­ive edge, ex­pect to see it on the re­cruit­ment front in those dis­tricts. Right now, most of those in­cum­bents aren’t even fa­cing op­pon­ents, and pun­dits aren’t rat­ing the races as po­ten­tially com­pet­it­ive. There’s time for that to change, but fil­ing dead­lines in key battle­ground states aren’t far away (Feb. 2014 in Pa. and Ohio).

— Pay close at­ten­tion to the GOP-friendly sub­urb­an House dis­tricts. The big bell­weth­ers if a wave is emer­ging: Dav­id Joyce (OH-14), Mike Turn­er (OH-10), Erik Paulsen (MN-03), Re­id Ribble (WI-08), Pat Mee­han (PA-07), and John Kline (MN-02). If they’re in trouble next sum­mer, the House could be in play.

Fi­nally, a real­ity check on the PPP/Mo­ve­On.org polls: They tested GOP mem­bers against gen­er­ic Dem can­did­ates, res­ults de­signed to give overly-op­tim­ist­ic read­ings of any race. And they didn’t sur­vey any of the nine Dems in Rom­ney CDs, who would have shown sim­il­ar vul­ner­ab­il­it­ies. Take their con­clu­sions with a big grain of salt.

What We're Following See More »
CITES CONFLICT OF INTEREST
Lieberman Withdraws from Consideration for FBI Job
3 days ago
THE LATEST
MINIMUM 2 PERCENT GDP
Trump Tells NATO Countries To Pay Up
3 days ago
BREAKING
MANAFORT AND FLYNN
Russians Discussed Influencing Trump Through Aides
3 days ago
THE DETAILS

"American spies collected information last summer revealing that senior Russian intelligence and political officials were discussing how to exert influence over Donald J. Trump through his advisers." The conversations centered around Paul Manafort, who was campaign chairman at the time, and Michael Flynn, former national security adviser and then a close campaign surrogate. Both men have been tied heavily with Russia and Flynn is currently at the center of the FBI investigation into possible collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia.

Source:
BUT WHITE HOUSE MAY USE AGAINST HIM ANYWAY
Ethics Cops Clear Mueller to Work on Trump Case
5 days ago
THE LATEST

"Former FBI Director Robert Mueller has been cleared by U.S. Department of Justice ethics experts to oversee an investigation into possible collusion between then-candidate Donald Trump's 2016 election campaign and Russia." Some had speculated that the White House would use "an ethics rule limiting government attorneys from investigating people their former law firm represented" to trip up Mueller's appointment. Jared Kushner is a client of Mueller's firm, WilmerHale. "Although Mueller has now been cleared by the Justice Department, the White House may still use his former law firm's connection to Manafort and Kushner to undermine the findings of his investigation, according to two sources close to the White House."

Source:
BUSINESSES CAN’T PLEAD FIFTH
Senate Intel to Subpoena Two of Flynn’s Businesses
5 days ago
THE LATEST

Senate Intelligence Committee chairman Richard Burr (R-NC) and ranking member Mark Warner (D-VA) will subpoena two businesses owned by former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn. Burr said, "We would like to hear from General Flynn. We'd like to see his documents. We'd like him to tell his story because he publicly said he had a story to tell."

×
×

Welcome to National Journal!

You are currently accessing National Journal from IP access. Please login to access this feature. If you have any questions, please contact your Dedicated Advisor.

Login