Spotlight

Land of Hopes and Dreams

None

WASHINGTON, DC - SEPTEMBER 30: U.S. House Minority Leader Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) speaks as (L-R) Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD), Assistant House Minority Leader Rep. James Clyburn (D-SC), House Democratic Caucus Vice Chairman Rep. Joseph Crowley (D-NY), House Democratic Caucus Chairman Rep. Xavier Becerra (D-CA), and House Minority Whip Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-MD) listen during a news conference September 30, 2013 on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC. The U.S. government was officially shut down at midnight after the Senate and the House of the Representatives failed to come to an agreement to pass a federal spending bill to keep the government running.
National Journal
Josh Kraushaar
Oct. 7, 2013, 7:48 a.m.

Demo­crats are en­ter­tain­ing the pro­spect that Re­pub­lic­an in­transigence over the budget and debt ceil­ing could put the House in play for 2014. So with the pos­sib­il­ity of these crises worsen­ing, it’s worth ex­amin­ing what would need to hap­pen for them to net the 17 seats ne­ces­sary to pull off a his­tor­ic up­set.

— The crit­ic­al num­ber for Dems is 45, the num­ber of GOP-held House seats with a Cook PVI of R+4 or bet­ter. They need to re­cruit cred­ible can­did­ates in at least 25 of them to have any hope of com­pet­ing. Even in a wave elec­tion, not every com­pet­it­ive race goes one party’s dir­ec­tion. And re­mem­ber: these in­clude battle-tested mem­bers now run­ning in ger­ry­mandered seats (Ger­lach, Reich­ert, Dent) and ones un­likely to draw much op­pos­i­tion (Paul Ry­an, Randy For­bes).

— If the Wash­ing­ton grid­lock is giv­ing Demo­crats a de­cis­ive edge, ex­pect to see it on the re­cruit­ment front in those dis­tricts. Right now, most of those in­cum­bents aren’t even fa­cing op­pon­ents, and pun­dits aren’t rat­ing the races as po­ten­tially com­pet­it­ive. There’s time for that to change, but fil­ing dead­lines in key battle­ground states aren’t far away (Feb. 2014 in Pa. and Ohio).

— Pay close at­ten­tion to the GOP-friendly sub­urb­an House dis­tricts. The big bell­weth­ers if a wave is emer­ging: Dav­id Joyce (OH-14), Mike Turn­er (OH-10), Erik Paulsen (MN-03), Re­id Ribble (WI-08), Pat Mee­han (PA-07), and John Kline (MN-02). If they’re in trouble next sum­mer, the House could be in play.

Fi­nally, a real­ity check on the PPP/Mo­ve­On.org polls: They tested GOP mem­bers against gen­er­ic Dem can­did­ates, res­ults de­signed to give overly-op­tim­ist­ic read­ings of any race. And they didn’t sur­vey any of the nine Dems in Rom­ney CDs, who would have shown sim­il­ar vul­ner­ab­il­it­ies. Take their con­clu­sions with a big grain of salt.

What We're Following See More »
A DARK CLOUD OVER TRUMP?
Snowstorm Could Impact Primary Turnout
1 days ago
THE LATEST

A snowstorm is supposed to hit New Hampshire today and “linger into Primary Tuesday.” GOP consultant Ron Kaufman said lower turnout should help candidates who have spent a lot of time in the state tending to retail politicking. Donald Trump “has acknowledged that he needs to step up his ground-game, and a heavy snowfall could depress his figures relative to more organized candidates.”

Source:
IN CASE OF EMERGENCY
A Shake-Up in the Offing in the Clinton Camp?
1 days ago
THE DETAILS

Anticipating a primary loss in New Hampshire on Tuesday, Hillary and Bill Clinton “are considering staffing and strategy changes” to their campaign. Sources tell Politico that the Clintons are likely to layer over top officials with experienced talent, rather than fire their staff en masse.

Source:
THE LAST ROUND OF NEW HAMPSHIRE POLLS
Trump Is Still Ahead, but Who’s in Second?
1 days ago
THE LATEST

We may not be talking about New Hampshire primary polls for another three-and-a-half years, so here goes:

  • American Research Group’s tracking poll has Donald Trump in the lead with 30% support, followed by Marco Rubio and John Kasich tying for second place at 16%. On the Democratic side, Bernie Sanders leads Hillary Clinton 53%-41%.
  • The 7 News/UMass Lowell tracking poll has Trump way out front with 34%, followed by Rubio and Ted Cruz with 13% apiece. Among the Democrats, Sanders is in front 56%-40%.
  • A Gravis poll puts Trump ahead with 28%, followed by Kasich with 17% and Rubio with 15%.
IT’S ALL ABOUT SECOND PLACE
CNN Calls the Primary for Sanders and Trump
17 hours ago
THE LATEST

Well that didn’t take long. CNN has already declared Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump the winners of the New Hampshire primary, leaving the rest of the candidates to fight for the scraps. Five minutes later, the Associated Press echoed CNN’s call.

Source:
×