Democrats are entertaining the prospect that Republican intransigence over the budget and debt ceiling could put the House in play for 2014. So with the possibility of these crises worsening, it’s worth examining what would need to happen for them to net the 17 seats necessary to pull off a historic upset.
— The critical number for Dems is 45, the number of GOP-held House seats with a Cook PVI of R+4 or better. They need to recruit credible candidates in at least 25 of them to have any hope of competing. Even in a wave election, not every competitive race goes one party’s direction. And remember: these include battle-tested members now running in gerrymandered seats (Gerlach, Reichert, Dent) and ones unlikely to draw much opposition (Paul Ryan, Randy Forbes).
— If the Washington gridlock is giving Democrats a decisive edge, expect to see it on the recruitment front in those districts. Right now, most of those incumbents aren’t even facing opponents, and pundits aren’t rating the races as potentially competitive. There’s time for that to change, but filing deadlines in key battleground states aren’t far away (Feb. 2014 in Pa. and Ohio).
— Pay close attention to the GOP-friendly suburban House districts. The big bellwethers if a wave is emerging: David Joyce (OH-14), Mike Turner (OH-10), Erik Paulsen (MN-03), Reid Ribble (WI-08), Pat Meehan (PA-07), and John Kline (MN-02). If they’re in trouble next summer, the House could be in play.
Finally, a reality check on the PPP/MoveOn.org polls: They tested GOP members against generic Dem candidates, results designed to give overly-optimistic readings of any race. And they didn’t survey any of the nine Dems in Romney CDs, who would have shown similar vulnerabilities. Take their conclusions with a big grain of salt.
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Trump, in a statement: “Based on the fact that the Democratic nominating process is totally rigged and Crooked Hillary Clinton and Deborah Wasserman Schultz will not allow Bernie Sanders to win, and now that I am the presumptive Republican nominee, it seems inappropriate that I would debate the second place finisher. ... I will wait to debate the first place finisher in the Democratic Party, probably Crooked Hillary Clinton, or whoever it may be.”
"It's about time for unity," said UAW President Dennis Williams. "We're endorsing Hillary Clinton. She's gotten 3 million more votes than Bernie, a million more votes than Donald Trump. She's our nominee." He called Sanders "a great friend of the UAW" while saying Trump "does not support the economic security of UAW families." Some 28 percent of UAW members indicated their support for Trump in an internal survey.
"Donald Trump on Thursday reached the number of delegates needed to clinch the Republican nomination for president, completing an unlikely rise that has upended the political landscape and sets the stage for a bitter fall campaign. Trump was put over the top in the Associated Press delegate count by a small number of the party's unbound delegates who told the AP they would support him at the convention."
"Clinton and Bernie Sanders "are now devoting additional money to television advertising. A day after Sanders announced a new ad buy of less than $2 million in the state, Clinton announced her own television campaign. Ads featuring actor Morgan Freeman as well as labor leader and civil rights activist Dolores Huerta will air beginning on Fridayin Fresno, Sacramento, and Los Angeles media markets. Some ads will also target Latino voters and Asian American voters. The total value of the buy is about six figures according to the Clinton campaign." Meanwhile, a new poll shows Sanders within the margin of error, trailing Clinton 44%-46%.