The new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll is filled with signs that the government shutdown damaged the GOP’s ability to win back the Senate, while giving Democrats an outside chance at contesting the House.
— The most important poll numbers in the battle for Congress are the president’s approval rating and the generic Congressional ballot. President Obama‘s approval numbers inched up to 47%, Democrats now hold an eight-point lead (largest since Oct. 2009) on their version of the generic ballot, and Obamacare approval got a bounce despite its implementation problems. Voters blame Republicans for the shutdown over Obama by a whopping 22-point margin.
— Context is important. The Democrats’ +8 edge, if it holds, probably wouldn’t be enough to retake the House. Dems held larger advantage in the wave years of 2008 (D+12) and 2006 (D+15), facing a more favorable landscape. In the Senate, nearly every competitive race is taking place in a world apart, in states Mitt Romney comfortably carried. Regardless, even in deep-red states, running as a member of the House won’t be easy. (We’re looking at you, Steve Daines, Bill Cassidy and Tom Cotton.)
— The biggest loss for Republicans is their opportunity cost. The GOP could have used the disastrous health care exchange launch as a lesson to convincing soft Obamacare supporters that the law wasn’t working. In the GOP-friendly Senate battlegrounds, the message would have found a receptive audience. Instead, there’s anecdotal evidence voters are now blaming the exchange problems on the shutdown itself.
If the midterms were held today, it would still be a status quo election with probable Democratic House gains and the party holding a slightly-smaller majority in the Senate. But all bets are off if there’s a debt default. That’s why Republicans are scrambling to make a deal.
What We're Following See More »
"A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll found that 34% of registered voters think the three presidential debates would be extremely or quite important in helping them decide whom to support for president. About 11% of voters are considered 'debate persuadables'—that is, they think the debates are important and are either third-party voters or only loosely committed to either major-party candidate."
Will he or won't he? That's the question surrounding Donald Trump and his on-again, off-again threats to bring onetime Bill Clinton paramour Gennifer Flowers to the debate as his guest. An assistant to flowers initially said she'd be there, but Trump campaign chief Kellyanne Conway "said on ABC’s 'This Week' that the Trump campaign had not invited Flowers to the debate, but she didn’t rule out the possibility of Flowers being in the audience."
NBC's Lester Holt hasn't hosted the "Nightly News" since Tuesday, as he's prepped for moderating the first presidential debate tonight—and the first of his career. He's called on a host of NBC talent to help him, namely NBC News and MSNBC chairman Andy Lack; NBC News president Deborah Turness; the news division's senior vice president of editorial, Janelle Rodriguez; "Nightly News" producer Sam Singal, "Meet the Press" host Chuck Todd, senior political editor Mark Murray and political editor Carrie Dann. But during the debate itself, the only person in Holt's earpiece will be longtime debate producer Marty Slutsky.
"The House passed legislation late Thursday that would prohibit the federal government from making any cash payments to Iran, in protest of President Obama's recently discovered decision to pay Iran $1.7 billion in cash in January. And while the White House has said Obama would veto the bill, 16 Democrats joined with Republicans to pass the measure, 254-163."
In contrast to Hillary Clinton's meticulous debate practice sessions, Donald Trump "is largely shunning traditional debate preparations, but has been watching video of…Clinton’s best and worst debate moments, looking for her vulnerabilities.” Trump “has paid only cursory attention to briefing materials. He has refused to use lecterns in mock debate sessions despite the urging of his advisers. He prefers spitballing ideas with his team rather than honing them into crisp, two-minute answers.”