Spotlight

Burning Down the House

WASHINGTON, DC - OCTOBER 15: The morning sun begins to rise behind the U.S. Capitol, October 15, 2013 in Washington, DC. With the government shutdown going into the fifteenth day and the deadline for raising the debt ceiling fast approaching, Democrats and Republicans may come to an agreement soon on passing a budget. 
National Journal
Josh Kraushaar
Add to Briefcase
See more stories about...
Josh Kraushaar
Oct. 22, 2013, 7:40 a.m.

If you’re look­ing for signs that the House could be in play in 2014, there are plenty in the wake of the gov­ern­ment shut­down. Between the macro trends (grow­ing D leads on the gen­er­ic bal­lot) and the race-by-race de­vel­op­ments (a crop of new re­cruits run­ning), Demo­crats have reas­ons to be cau­tiously op­tim­ist­ic.

— The most en­cour­aging news for the party is on the re­cruit­ment front. Party op­er­at­ives now ex­pect to land a num­ber of re­cruits in both: a) swing dis­tricts where ser­i­ous chal­lengers usu­ally don’t run, even in good years; b) Re­pub­lic­an-friendly seats where chal­lengers only run in strong Demo­crat­ic years, like 2006 and 2008.

— To wit: Dems are clos­ing to land­ing a former gubernat­ori­al nom­in­ee (Alex Sink) to run in FL-13, and a former con­gress­man’s son (Bill Hughes, Jr.) to chal­lenge Rep. Frank Lo­Bi­ondo (R-NJ). Neither seat has been in play for dec­ades. In solidly-Re­pub­lic­an sub­urb­an seats around Omaha (NE-02), Little Rock (AR-02) and South Bend (IN-02), Dems ex­pect to re­cruit mod­er­ate can­did­ates cap­able of win­ning cros­sov­er voters. These races alone aren’t enough to tip the ma­jor­ity, but if they’re in­dic­at­ive of a trend, stay tuned.

— This re­cruit­ing boom­let is a product of the more fa­vor­able na­tion­al land­scape for Dems. The latest ABC News/Wash­ing­ton Post poll shows Dems hold­ing an 8-point lead on the gen­er­ic, with Amer­ic­ans’ ap­prov­al of their own rep­res­ent­at­ive at an all-time low (43%/47%). The only sil­ver lin­ing for the GOP: Obama‘s ap­prov­al re­mains me­diocre, and even a D+8 isn’t a guar­an­tee of pick­ing up the 17 seats ne­ces­sary for con­trol. Also: this is the GOP’s low-wa­ter mark, and the Dem num­bers will prob­ably take a hit giv­en Obama­care’s im­ple­ment­a­tion woes.

It wasn’t long ago that there was talk about wide­spread voter dis­sat­is­fac­tion lead­ing to per­man­ent wave elec­tions. That’s still not likely this time, but the po­ten­tial ex­ists as voter ap­prov­al con­tin­ues to hit re­cord lows.

What We're Following See More »
ON THE CALL: “AT LEAST THAT WAS SACRED”
Gen. Kelly Rips Rep. Wilson for Criticism
24 minutes ago
THE LATEST
GOP FORMER PRES V. GOP CURRENT PRES
Bush Slams Trump, Implicitly
38 minutes ago
THE DETAILS
AMENDMENT WOULD HAVE PREVENTED CONSIDERATION
Senate Rejects Effort to Nix SALT Tax Changes
1 hours ago
THE LATEST

"Senate Democrats on Thursday failed in their first attempt to save the state and local tax deduction, which helps many residents of California and other high-cost states reduce their federal income tax bills. The Republican-controlled Senate voted 52-47 to reject an amendment that would have prevented the Senate from considering any bill that repeals or limits the deduction as part of a planned tax overhaul."

Source:
MEETING WITH SENATE GOP
Trump to Hill Next Tuesday
2 hours ago
THE DETAILS
INTERPARTY FEUDING CONTINUES UNDER PEREZ
Longtime Progressive Members Pushed Out at DNC
3 hours ago
THE LATEST

"A shake-up is underway at the Democratic National Committee as several key longtime officials have lost their posts, exposing a still-raw rift in the party and igniting anger among those in its progressive wing who see retaliation for their opposition to DNC Chairman Tom Perez. The ousters come ahead of the DNC's first meeting, in Las Vegas, Nevada, since Perez took over as chairman with a pledge this year to unite a party that had become badly divided during the brutal Bernie Sanders-Hillary Clinton 2016 primary race."

Source:
×
×

Welcome to National Journal!

You are currently accessing National Journal from IP access. Please login to access this feature. If you have any questions, please contact your Dedicated Advisor.

Login