A LOOK AHEAD

Nov. 1, 2013, 4:02 a.m.

What’s next on non­pro­lif­er­a­tion and in­ter­na­tion­al se­cur­ity, in Wash­ing­ton and around the globe.

— Nov. 2-3: The Amer­ic­an Phys­ic­al So­ci­ety is sta­ging what it calls a “re­peat per­form­ance” of a “pop­u­lar tech­nic­al work­shop”: A “Short Course on Nuc­le­ar Weapon Is­sues in the 21st Cen­tury.” To be held at George Wash­ing­ton Uni­versity’s El­li­ot School of In­ter­na­tion­al Af­fairs in Wash­ing­ton, the two-day event will fea­ture two dozen is­sue ex­perts grap­pling with how best to mon­it­or im­ple­ment­a­tion of arms-con­trol treat­ies, what an onsite in­spec­tion for the Com­pre­hens­ive Nuc­le­ar Test Ban Treaty would in­volve, the sci­ence and polit­ics sur­round­ing bal­list­ic mis­sile de­fense, a mi­cro­scop­ic look at nuc­le­ar forensics and much more.

— Nov. 4: Wo­men seem to be in­creas­ingly on the front lines of ter­ror­ism: Their num­bers re­portedly are grow­ing as in­stru­ments of ter­ror, but they also fre­quently fall vic­tim to it. Might the gender play a unique role in fight­ing ex­trem­ist vi­ol­ence? These mat­ters are to be ex­plored at a Geor­getown Uni­versity event, “Wo­men, Ter­ror­ism and Coun­terter­ror­ism: De­con­struct­ing Myths, Dis­cuss­ing Real­it­ies.” The for­um — co­sponsored by the Mc­Cain In­sti­tute for In­ter­na­tion­al Lead­er­ship; Geor­getown In­sti­tute for Wo­men, Peace and Se­cur­ity; and the Cen­ter for Se­cur­ity Stud­ies — will fea­ture the views of four policy spe­cial­ists. Among them are Jane Holl Lute, un­til re­cently the deputy sec­ret­ary of Home­land Se­cur­ity, and Bruce Hoff­man, the CSS dir­ect­or. Cindy Mc­Cain, de­scribed in the event list­ing as a “hu­man­it­ari­an” and per­haps bet­ter known as spouse of one­time GOP pres­id­en­tial nom­in­ee Sen­at­or John Mc­Cain (Ar­iz.), will join Melanne Verveer, who was the first U.S. am­bas­sad­or for glob­al wo­men’s is­sues, in of­fer­ing re­marks at the Wash­ing­ton event.

— Nov. 4: Mar­tin Hell­man, a Stan­ford Uni­versity pro­fess­or emer­it­us of elec­tric­al en­gin­eer­ing, will brief Cap­it­ol Hill staffers on the use of quant­it­at­ive risk ana­lys­is in re­du­cing nuc­le­ar threats. What the heck is that? Well, the Fed­er­a­tion of Amer­ic­an Sci­ent­ists, where Hell­man is a seni­or fel­low, de­scribes the QRA ap­proach as a use of “his­tor­ic­al data about par­tial ex­cur­sions in­to the ac­ci­dent chain to es­tim­ate the over­all risk and to high­light fail­ure mech­an­isms re­quir­ing re­medi­ation.” Uh, time for a real-world ex­ample. “Had QRA been ap­plied [at Fukushi­ma pri­or to the 2011 tsunami dis­aster], it would have shown that the sea wall was far too low,” ac­cord­ing to the event no­tice. The FAS lunch­eon is titled “Fu­ture Nuc­le­ar Risks and De­terrence.”

— Nov. 5: The Cen­ter for Stra­tegic and In­ter­na­tion­al Stud­ies is con­ven­ing a daylong Wash­ing­ton con­fer­ence jam-packed with in­triguing top­ics and in­flu­en­tial voices. De­fense Sec­ret­ary Chuck Hagel kicks off the event as key­note speak­er. Among the plen­ti­ful head­liners at the “Glob­al Se­cur­ity For­um“ are two former na­tion­al se­cur­ity ad­visers — Zbig­niew Brzez­in­ski and re­tired Lt. Gen. Brent Scow­croft — dis­cuss­ing “Geo­pol­it­ic­al Im­plic­a­tions of a Re­con­nect­ing Euras­ia”; a 12-star pan­el — that’s three re­tired brai­n­i­ac Gens. James Cartwright, Peter Chiarelli and Ron­ald Fogle­man — on “What Bat­tle­field Les­sons Have We Learned From 12 Years of War?”; former State De­part­ment Spe­cial Ad­viser for Non­pro­lif­er­a­tion and Arms Con­trol Robert Ein­horn and oth­er thinkers on “Can a U.S.-Ir­an Deal Work?”; and a two-hour “Sim­u­lated Crisis in East Asia” — read North Korea — fea­tur­ing too many rock-star wonks to list here. Re­gis­tra­tion is by in­vite only but if you are lucky enough to snare one, this is an event not to be missed.

— Nov. 6: Care to brush up on how elec­tro­mag­net­ic pulse works — you know, those tran­si­ent dis­turb­ances that can be caused by det­on­at­ing a nuc­le­ar war­head in just the right way so as to knock out en­tire swaths of the elec­tric­al grid? Then ven­ture right back to the Cen­ter for Stra­tegic and In­ter­na­tion­al Stud­ies for a sem­in­ar on the tech­no­logy and strategy in­volved in gen­er­at­ing what many simply call “EMP.” Fea­tured speak­ers are Henry Cooper, who formerly dir­ec­ted the Stra­tegic De­fense Ini­ti­at­ive Or­gan­iz­a­tion — now known as the De­fense De­part­ment’s Mis­sile De­fense Agency — and George Baker, who headed the De­fense Nuc­le­ar Agency’s EMP ef­fort.

— Nov. 7: The Sen­ate Armed Ser­vices Com­mit­tee is to ex­am­ine the ef­fects of se­quest­ra­tion on the De­fense De­part­ment at a hear­ing in which each of the four ser­vice chiefs is to testi­fy. Keep an ear out for yet more dis­cus­sion of the risks of re­duced read­i­ness in the nuc­le­ar ar­sen­al — as well as de­grad­a­tion of U.S. ef­forts to com­bat the glob­al spread of weapons of mass de­struc­tion — as a res­ult of con­gres­sion­ally man­dated fund­ing re­duc­tions.

— Nov. 7: A pro­voc­at­ive for­um on Syr­i­an vi­ol­a­tions of the Chem­ic­al Weapons Con­ven­tion jux­ta­posed with U.S. and Rus­si­an delays in im­ple­ment­ing the agree­ment will be held at the Uni­versity of Mary­land’s Cen­ter for In­ter­na­tion­al and Se­cur­ity Stud­ies. Both of the former su­per­powers have missed dead­lines in their on­go­ing ef­forts to elim­in­ate their Cold War chem­ic­al ar­sen­als. Dav­id Koplow, who dir­ects the Cen­ter for Ap­plied Leg­al Stud­ies and is a Geor­getown Uni­versity Law Cen­ter schol­ar, will of­fer re­marks at the Col­lege Park gath­er­ing.

— Nov. 7-8: Hap­pen to be on a boomer sub­mar­ine docked at Kings Bay, Geor­gia? You’re in just the right place to at­tend a con­fer­ence on “Sus­tain­ing the Tri­ad: The En­dur­ing Re­quire­ments of De­terrence,” sponsored by the Cam­den Part­ner­ship. Its slate of not­able speak­ers in­cludes Kat­rina Mc­Far­land, the as­sist­ant sec­ret­ary of De­fense for ac­quis­i­tion, U.S. Stra­tegic Com­mand head Gen. Robert Kehler and vari­ous oth­er gen­er­al and flag of­ficers from the Air Force and Navy, re­spect­ively. Bo­nus treat: U.S. na­tion­als may tour an Ohio-class bal­list­ic mis­sile sub­mar­ine after the dis­cus­sions con­clude.

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