Republicans are in the midst of a messy civil war between their establishment wing and the tea-party insurgents. But with President Obama’s approval ratings collapsing amid problems with his signature health care law, Democrats are starting to face their own divisions.
— President Obama v. the Clintons. It’s hard to believe Bill Clinton’s recommendation that Obama honor his health care promise was an accident. Not only did it provide cover for congressional Democrats to break with the White House, it also added to the pressure on an administration desperately trying to come up with any last-ditch administrative fix to stop the bleeding — without harming the law itself. Clinton knows how damaging the Obamacare problems could be to Senate Democrats and, if not resolved soon, that they could have a lasting impact on his wife’s (likely) presidential campaign. Hillary Clinton can’t tweak her old boss, but her husband certainly can (and has before).
— Congressional divide between red-state Democrats and Obama loyalists. We’re already seeing red-state Democrats and senators on the ballot in 2014 begin to break away from the White House. As politically palatable legislation to alter Obamacare comes through with bipartisan support, there will be a lot of pressure on others to join in (paging reliably liberal Sens. Dianne Feinstein and Ben Cardin). The White House may resist, but a veto-proof majority may soon be building to make significant changes to the law, given the current political sentiment. Despite difficult relations with Congress, Obama usually could count on party loyalty to get him through rocky patches. Not anymore.
— The party’s Hillary Clinton-Elizabeth Warren split. Clinton looks closer to a lock than anyone for the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination this far out — assuming she runs. But the party’s progressive wing is already started to push Elizabeth Warren as a credible candidate. That’s unlikely. Warren, despite the buzz, isn’t a smooth campaigner. She would appeal mainly to a narrow, affluent slice of the Democratic electorate, and many of her Massachusetts Senate donors would go with Clinton. But as 2016 draws closer, Democrats may start to worry about Obama’s baggage spreading to the party’s future nominee. Expect to hear growing progressive angst to find any liberal outsider to challenge the formidable front-runner.
American political history shows that the president’s party tends to be united, while the opposition often looks leaderless, rudderless, and divided. But when the president’s approval rating sinks into dangerous territory, that formula becomes inoperative. And Obama is facing the reality that many longtime allies are now looking out more for their political survival than his legacy or the fate of his namesake law.
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"Senate Democrats on Thursday failed in their first attempt to save the state and local tax deduction, which helps many residents of California and other high-cost states reduce their federal income tax bills. The Republican-controlled Senate voted 52-47 to reject an amendment that would have prevented the Senate from considering any bill that repeals or limits the deduction as part of a planned tax overhaul."
"President Donald Trump's former campaign manager Corey Lewandowski appeared on Capitol Hill for a closed-door interview with the Senate intelligence committee Wednesday, according to a source familiar with the matter. Lewandowski is the latest senior official in Trump's orbit who has met with the committee as part of its investigation into Russian election meddling and possible collusion with the Trump campaign."
"A growing number of key Republicans are sending this message to the leaders of the congressional committees investigating potential Trump campaign collusion with the Russians: Wrap it up soon. In the House and Senate, several Republicans who sit on key committees are starting to grumble that the investigations have spanned the better part of the past nine months, contending that the Democratic push to extend the investigation well into next year could amount to a fishing expedition."