RACE FOR THE HOUSE | WV-3 | WI-7 | WA-5 | WA-3 | OH-10 | NC-9 | NY-18 | NJ-5 | NV-4 | NV-3 | IA-2 | CA-21 | IL-14 | WA-8 | NJ-3 | TN-4 | TX-4 | UT-1

Dems Betting on Turnout Surge

The Cook Political Report shifted 13 race ratings.

April 6, 2018, 11:18 a.m.

“Democrats are fielding challengers for nearly every GOP House incumbent this year—a change from the last midterm election in 2014, when 36 Republicans won re-election without facing a general election opponent. In contrast, about 60 House Democrats won’t face a GOP opponent this November. The goal is to maximize their opportunities if there is a surge in Democratic turnout, as has happened in some special elections. Democrats need a net gain of 23 seats to retake control of the House. Yet, Corry Bliss, executive director of the Congressional Leadership Fund, the super PAC aligned with House Speaker Paul Ryan .. said he would start paying attention to these candidates only if they can raise big money.”

Bliss: “It makes no difference how good your story is and how bad the environment is, without money, none of these people are real.” (Wall Street Journal)

TOWN HALLS. “Students … are calling on” Rep. Peter Roskam (R) and his Democratic challenger, clean-energy entrepreneur Sean Casten (D), “to discuss gun violence prevention Saturday as part of the national Town Hall for Our Lives movement led by survivors of the Parkland, Fla., school shooting. The town hall is organized by five area high school students who wrote letters inviting Roskam and Casten to the event. Roskam’s campaign has declined Saturday’s invitation, citing scheduling conflicts. Casten plans to attend. … Roskam’s campaign is looking at a possible alternative time for students to come to meet with the congressman to discuss gun safety.” (Chicago Tribune)

“Johnson County high school students organizing a town hall in Olathe Saturday said they found out from local newspapers that” Rep. Kevin Yoder (R) “would not attend their event. … Yoder’s staff never replied to their requests before his campaign inaccurately referred to their town hall as a Democratic primary event in a statement to media.” (Kansas City Star)

HEALTH CARE. Heading into the midterm elections, a new poll (March 23-26; 1,000 interviews, including 872 RV) says “American voters are more likely to say they’re focused about health care than any other issue. Asked to select their top two issues from a list in a new HuffPost/YouGov poll, 30 percent of registered voters picked health care. … The survey also looks at which issues each party is perceived as focusing mostly on. In the case of the Democratic Party, that’s guns, followed by Trump’s record. In the case of the GOP, it’s taxes, immigration, and the economy. … At times, a perceived mismatch between those issues and the topics on Americans’ minds has served as a warning sign … This year, although neither party is overwhelmingly seen as concentrating on health care, twice as many voters say Democrats are focusing most on the topic as say that Republicans are.” (Huffington Post)

“The decision by Democrats to take the offensive on health care marks a switch in tactics from 2010, when the party lost 64 seats and the House majority after passing the Affordable Care Act. … The failed GOP repeal attempt gave Democrats a chance to promote popular aspects of the law — including its ban on jacking up rates for patients with pre-existing medical conditions. After years of attacks by Republicans, Obamacare gained majority public approval in a Gallup poll for the first time in April 2017. A Gallup poll last month found that the cost and availability of health care is Americans’ top issue for the fifth year in a row.” (Bloomberg)

RATINGS CHANGE. Cook Political Report has shifted 13 race ratings. (Cook Political Report)

  • CA-21 Valadao (R): Likely R to Lean R
  • IA-02 Loebsack (D): Likely D to Solid D
  • NC-09 Pittenger (R): Likely R to Lean R
  • NJ-03 MacArthur (R): Likely R to Lean R
  • NJ-05 Gottheimer (D): Lean D to Likely D
  • NV-03 OPEN (D): Toss Up to Lean D
  • NV-04 OPEN (D): Lean D to Likely D
  • NY-18 Maloney (D): Likely D to Solid D
  • OH-10 Turner (R): Solid R to Likely R
  • WA-03 Beutler (R): Solid R to Likely R
  • WA-05 McMorris Rodgers (R): Likely R to Lean R
  • WI-07 Duffy (R): Solid R to Likely R
  • WV-03 OPEN (R): Solid R to Likely R
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