What Indiana Can Tell Us About the House

If Dems are competing for multiple House seats there, it will likely be a rough election night for the GOP.

House Speaker Paul Ryan of Wis. administers the House oath of office to Rep. Trey Hollingsworth, R-Ind., during a mock swearing in ceremony on Capitol Hill, Tuesday, Jan. 3, 2017, in Washington.
AP Photo/Zach Gibson
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Kyle Trygstad
Feb. 8, 2018, 9:52 a.m.

If an election wave crashes into Indiana, we’ll be talking about how large the Democrats’ House majority is in the 116th Congress.

As candidate filing closes in the state Friday, it’s worth noting that three Republican incumbents were outraised in the fourth quarter: Reps. Jackie Walorski, Jim Banks, and Trey Hollingsworth. However, President Trump and Mitt Romney carried each of their districts by double-digits, which will test the limits of fundraising and a potentially favorable environment.

The DCCC and House Majority PAC combined to spend more than $2 million against Hollingsworth in the open-seat 9th District race last cycle, but the Republican—who benefited from more than $1 million in NRCC IEs—still defeated Democrat Shelli Yoder by 14 points. More positive conditions could invite outside spending once again to the Bloomington-based district, as well as to Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly‘s former South Bend-based 2nd District seat, where Walorski’s opponent had more than $400,000 on hand by the start of the election year.

Meanwhile, there are primaries to watch in the open seats created by Republican Reps. Todd Rokita and Luke Messer running against each other for the Senate. Both GOP races feature a connection to Vice President Mike Pence, with a former adviser running in the 4th District and his brother seeking the 6th.

Kyle Trygstad


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