RACE FOR THE HOUSE | WA-5 | WA-3 | VA-10 | UT-4 | NY-21 | NY-22 | GA-6 | CA-45 | TX-29 | NY-11 | CA-50 | FL-26

Monmouth Generic Ballot: Dems 47%, GOP 45%

Steny Hoyer said Democrats have a 90 percent chance of taking back the House.

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Ally Mutnick
Feb. 1, 2018, 11:21 a.m.

Democrats hold just a 2-point lead on a new Monmouth generic ballot (Jan. 28-30; 711 RVs; +/- 3.7%). Democratic candidates took 47 percent of the vote compared to Republicans’ 45 percent. “This marks a dramatic shift from last month, when Democrats held a 15 point advantage on the generic ballot,” 51 percent to 36 percent. Opinion was divided on the GOP tax bill with 44 percent both approving and disapproving of the legislation—that’s an increased in public support since December when only 26 percent approved. (release)

FEELING BULLISH. House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer “said Wednesday he thinks Democrats have a 90 percent chance of retaking the House in the November election, and said his party should pick up at least 30 seats. Hoyer: “We have a lot of candidates who want to run in a lot of districts. A large number are competitive, certainly enough for us to take back the majority.” (Washington Examiner)

ON BOARD. End Citizens United endorsed 2016 state Senate candidate Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D) in FL-26, former Navy SEAL Josh Butner (D) in CA-50, Army veteran Max Rose in NY-11, and state Sen. Sylvia Garcia (D) in TX-29. (release)

“Winning for Women, Inc., is making its first endorsements and announcing its key staff on Thursday. The initial round of endorsements, … includes 12 women running for Senate or re-election to the House.” The group, which aims to increase Republican women in Congress, backed: Rep. Martha Roby (AL-02), Mimi Walters (CA-45), Karen Handel (GA-06), Claudia Tenney (NY-22), Elise Stefanik (NY-21), Mia Love (UT-04), Barbara Comstock (VA-10), Jaime Herrera Beutler (WA-03), and Cathy McMorris Rodgers (WA-05). (Roll Call)

ON THE WEB. “Congressional Leadership Fund is targeting independent voters in battleground House districts. Independents have been skeptical of Trump’s polarizing leadership, putting the GOP’s House majority in jeopardy in the midterms. But snap polling from Tuesday evening’s State of the Union showed that independent voters were pleased with Trump’s address, and CLF is using it to try and drive a wedge between them and the Democrats.” (Washington Examiner) The group released a six-figure digital ad highlights Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi’s, and other Democrats’, reaction during the State of the Union.

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