Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam (D) outraised and outspent former RNC Chair Ed Gillespie (R) last month, according to new reports covering Sept. 1-30 released last night.
$1 million of Northam’s haul came from DGA Action. Northam’s in-kind donations included six figures each from Tom Steyer’s Nextgen Climate Action Committee, Virginia League of Conservation Voters, and the Planned Parenthood Virginia PAC. (Virginia Public Access Project)
Gillespie’s biggest contributions include $2 million from the RGA, $1 million of which was previously disclosed, and $50,000 from former President George W. Bush. The state Republican Party also spent six figures on his behalf. (Virginia Public Access Project)
POLL-TESTED. Northam led Gillespie 48-44 percent, according to a new Christopher Newport University Wason Center poll (Oct. 9-13; 642 LVs; +/-4.2%). Cliff Hyra (L) took 3 percent.
“This is the first poll in the Wason Center’s tracking series in which Northam’s lead is within the survey’s margin of error.” (release)
HELPING. NextGen Virginia announced Tuesday that it registered nearly 20,000 voters since August. (release)
NOT HELPING. Prince William County Supervisors Chair Corey Stewart (R) said Tuesday that he and Gillespie “haven’t been able to sit down yet” about a possible formal endorsement.
Stewart: “I can tell you that there’s a couple things in the works, not necessarily for Ed in particular but for the ticket. But at the end of the day, what we need from the Gillespie campaign is we need an indication of what they need from us. What I don’t want to do is go out there and, you know, do some things or say some things that the campaign is going to have to renounce or that they find counterproductive to the campaign.” (John Fredericks Show)
#ANALYSIS. “In both the 2013 gubernatorial race featuring Ken Cuccinelli and the 2014 Senate race featuring Gillespie, the Republican candidate dramatically overperformed compared to the final polls. The final RealClearPolitics average in 2013 had Cuccinelli trailing by 6.7 points; he lost by 2.5 points. The 2014 result was even more dramatic; the final RCP average put Democrat Mark Warner ahead by 9.7 points; he won by eight-tenths of a percentage point. … [I]t suggests that a small Democratic lead heading into Election Day might not be so reliable.” (National Review)
“Virginia’s gubernatorial candidates are bringing in the big guns to help them close the deal with voters. Barack Obama is coming to support Ralph Northam. Mike Pence visited on behalf of Ed Gillespie. All this political star power is intended to get the respective bases fired up and ready to head to the polls next month. The hard truth: They usually don’t work. … By the time a current or former president arrives, the campaign narratives and issues are largely set. It takes a special blend of circumstances, personalities and issues to make such a visit useful.” (Washington Post)
INTERNATIONAL VOLLEYS. “Spanish photojournalist Pau Coll Sanchez launched a social media campaign on Monday … demanding that Gillespie to stop using his work without permission and to pay him what he’s owed.” (ThinkProgress)