Political Connections

Why Seniors Need Kids of Color

Older whites should get out of their defensive crouch and embrace the Americans who will be paying their entitlement bills—the rapidly expanding population of different races.

New American citizens celebrate after being sworn in at South Mountain Community College in Phoenix in 2007.
AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin
Ronald Brownstein
Add to Briefcase
Ronald Brownstein
Sept. 13, 2017, 8 p.m.

Donald Trump’s polarizing presidency has provided few reasons for optimism about any aspect of American race relations.

From violence in Charlottesville to the repeal of the deferred-action program for young undocumented immigrants, from battles over voter-identification laws to a border wall, racially barbed conflict has been a defining feature of the Trump era—with the president appealing to white racial resentments more explicitly than any national political figure since George Wallace.

But demographic trends offer some guarded reasons for hope that the United States is living through peak years of discord over its growing racial and ethnic diversity—even if the temperature isn’t likely to lower very quickly. That sliver of good news is embedded in an otherwise sobering new study from PolicyLink and the Program for Environmental and Regional Equity (PERE) at the University of Southern California.

The two groups track the trajectory and implications of the twin demographic revolutions remaking American society. The country is simultaneously diversifying, especially among young people, and aging. While kids of color are expected to become a majority of the under-18 population by around 2020, nearly four-fifths of today’s senior population is white.

The contrast and conflict between these kaleidoscopically diverse younger generations and preponderantly white older ones—groups I’ve called the brown and the gray—has emerged as one of the central fault lines in American life. Hillary Clinton won overwhelming majorities among younger minority voters. Trump, meanwhile, carried over three-fifths of whites older than age 45, and they provided a majority of his votes.

The new study quantifies another implication of what the authors call the “racial generation gap,” a concept initially developed by demographer William Frey. Analyzing state spending trends, they found that since 1990 states and counties with the biggest gaps between mostly white seniors and mostly nonwhite kids “tend to spend less” on K-12 public education on a per capita basis. (PolicyLink and PERE have partnered with The Atlantic on similar data projects.)

Many of the states with the widest racial generation gaps, including Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico, Texas, California, and Florida, spend the least per person on public education. Conversely, many states that are more racially homogeneous, from Vermont, Connecticut, and New Hampshire to West Virginia, Wyoming, and North Dakota, spend more.

As the authors note, the resistance by so many older whites to invest in future generations is extraordinarily shortsighted. One of the central dynamics of 21st-century America is that an increasingly nonwhite workforce will be paying the taxes that fund Social Security and Medicare for a growing and mostly white retiree population. As I’ve written before, there is no financial security for the gray without economic opportunity for the brown.

Trump has implicitly mobilized his coalition, centered on older and working-class whites, around the opposite argument: that diverse younger generations can rise only at their expense. Not only does his agenda on crime and immigration target white anxieties, he also tilts starkly toward the gray in his budget proposals. He would preserve Social Security and Medicare, which benefit mostly white seniors, while slashing domestic-discretionary programs that invest in the productivity of the highly diverse rising generations.

Even so, PERE director Manuel Pastor finds reason for optimism. Since the 1990s, the racial generation gap rapidly widened as the minority share of the youth population exploded, from 34 percent in 1995 to 48 percent in 2013. That share has grown much more slowly among seniors, rising only from 16 percent to 21 percent in that same period. In future years, the Census Bureau projects that minorities will increase their share of the youth population somewhat more slowly and steadily age into a growing portion of the elderly. The result is that the racial generation gap likely peaked around 2013, and will decline, albeit slowly, in years ahead.

One possible political consequence is that as whites recede to less than half the population, even more of them will respond to Trump-like appeals to racial nationalism. But Pastor notes that California, a state at the forward edge of demographic change, experienced its greatest racial tension—with initiatives to ban affirmative action, bilingual education, and services for undocumented immigrants—precisely as its racial generation gap peaked in the mid-1990s. As the gap has diminished, so has the state’s racial conflict.

As Pastor points out, the racial generation gap won’t close nearly as fast nationally as it did in California, which means that waiting for demographic change alone to defuse tension “could be a long and grinding process.” That raises the stakes in finding new ways to build bridges across generations. “The task,” he said, “is to speed up the process of intergenerational understanding and interdependence.”

What We're Following See More »
Omnibus Released
3 hours ago

The $1.3 trillion agreement to fund the government through the rest of the fiscal year is expected to come up for a vote in the House soon.

McCabe Authorized Criminal Probe Of Sessions One Year Before Firing
6 hours ago

"Nearly a year before Attorney General Jeff Sessions fired senior FBI official Andrew McCabe for what Sessions called a 'lack of candor,'" McCabe launched a federal criminal investigation into whether Sessions withheld information from Congress regarding his contact with Russian operatives. "Democratic lawmakers have repeatedly accused Sessions of misleading them" during his testimony, "and called on federal authorities to investigate." When Sessions recused himself from the Russia investigation, "several top Republican and Democratic lawmakers were informed of the probe during a closed-door briefing with Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein and McCabe."

Senate Passes Bill Combating Sex Trafficking Online
7 hours ago

The Senate passed the Stop Enabling Sex Traffickers Act, or SESTA, by a vote of 97-2. The bill now heads to the White House, where President Trump is expected to sign it into law. SESTA lifts federal immunity for internet platforms involved in sex trafficking, "a move that prosecutors, victims and anti-trafficking activists are heralding as an essential step in cracking down on the crime." Opponents of SESTA argue had argued that lifting the immunity could open websites up to lawsuits based on user-generated content, which could lead to a crackdown on free speech.

How Trade Associations Come Down on the Tariffs
7 hours ago

The Economist

Mark Zuckerberg Responds To Cambridge Analytica Scandal
8 hours ago

In a lengthy Facebook post, Mark Zuckerberg responded to reports that Cambridge Analytica had accessed the personal data of 50 million users, and kept the data after being told by the social media company to delete it. "I started Facebook," wrote Zuckerberg, "and at the end of the day I'm responsible for what happens on our platform ... While this specific issue involving Cambridge Analytica should no longer happen with new apps today, that doesn't change what happened in the past." On Monday, Sen. Mark Warner, the top Democrat on the Senate Intelligence Committee, called for “Mr. Zuckerberg and other CEOs” to testify "about social media manipulation in the 2016 election."


Welcome to National Journal!

You are currently accessing National Journal from IP access. Please login to access this feature. If you have any questions, please contact your Dedicated Advisor.