Election cycles are measured in three-month fundraising intervals, and there are plenty of variables to watch in the fight for control of Congress as the off-year’s 2nd quarter concludes Friday.
The past few months have been a mixed bag for Republicans, who won all four contested special elections but now head into the July Fourth recess with continued delays to their legislative priorities despite control of Congress and the White House.
Hanging over their heads is President Trump’s approval rating, which remains at a historic low—he was at 41 percent in the RCP polling average on March 31 and 40 percent as of Wednesday morning. The latest poll, from NPR-PBS NewsHour-Marist, found Trump’s approval among independents at 31 percent, down 9 points since February.
Keep an eye on the generic congressional ballot, which Democrats led by 10 points in that poll.
Meanwhile, the start of the 3rd quarter tends to invite an influx of campaign announcements. Many House Republicans already have multiple Democratic challengers, but the wait may soon be over for Democratic senators still without an opponent.
— Kyle Trygstad