From the House to the Senate

Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., left, Rep. John Fleming, R-La., and Senate candidate, Rep. Bill Cassidy, R-La., right, wait to speak at a campaign stop at VFW Post 5951 in Bossier City, La., Monday, Oct. 13, 2014.
AP Photo/Gerald Herbert
Andrea Drusch
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Andrea Drusch
Nov. 4, 2016, 6:54 a.m.

Just two of the 14 House members who sought Senate seats this cycle are favored to win with less than a week to go. Reps. Chris Van Hollen of Maryland and Tammy Duckworth of Illinois are the only members holding significant leads, while Florida Rep. Ron DeSantis is the only failed Senate candidate poised for reelection to his House seat.

Reps. Joe Heck of Nevada and Todd Young of Indiana, are deadlocked in competitive Senate races that are central to determining who holds the majority, while Florida Rep. Patrick Murphy trails Sen. Marco Rubio by a few points. Arizona Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick challenged Sen. John McCain after her House district was reshaped, but McCain holds a solid lead.

In California and Louisiana, both of which hold unusual top-two primaries, three House members are running behind statewide-elected officials from their own party. Public polling shows a difficult path for either of Reps. Charles Boustany or John Fleming to advance to Louisiana’s Dec. 10 runoff. Republican state Treasurer John Kennedy leads the pack and could face an easy race against either of two leading Democrats. Meanwhile California Rep. Loretta Sanchez, who advanced from a June primary with Democratic state Attorney General Kamala Harris, trails her President Obama-endorsed opponent by double digits.

Reps. Marlin Stutzman of Indiana, Alan Grayson of Florida, and Donna Edwards of Maryland lost primaries earlier this year to fellow members of Congress. Florida Rep. David Jolly, like DeSantis, returned to his House race after Rubio announced his plans to seek reelection. But Jolly’s seat was redistricted to add a significant number of Democrats, making him the underdog against former Gov. Charlie Crist.

If Rubio wins, all three senators who ran for president, including Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, who is also up for reelection this year, will remain in the Senate. Should Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine become vice president, the special election a year from now could be between a Republican congressman and a former House Democrat appointed to the Senate in January.

Andrea Drusch

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