“Donald Trump’s flailing campaign offers Democrats renewed hope that they can cut deeply into the Republican House majority. But even after the release of Trump’s 2005 tape, polling does not yet show the bottom falling out for congressional Republicans.”
Hotline’s top 15 districts that are most likely to flip: FL-02; VA-04; FL-10; FL-13; NV-04; NH-01; IL-10; MN-02; FL-26; TX-23; IA-01; ME-02; FL-07; NJ-05; FL-18. (Hotline reporting)
HELPING HAND. Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI) will travel to California next to campaigns with Reps. Jeff Denham (R-CA 10); David Valadao (R-CA 21); and Steve Knight (R-CA 25). He will also stump with Sacramento County Sheriff Scott Jones (R), who is challenging Rep. Ami Bera (D-CA 07). (Los Angeles Times)
LOOPHOLE. “The Democratic Party is directing millions of extra dollars to its House candidates this fall by way of a legal loophole that has helped them bypass the typical limits on coordinated spending between parties and candidates — all while linking some vulnerable Republicans to Donald Trump. Typically, Federal Election Commission regulations limit parties to just $48,100 of spending in direct coordination with most House candidates. But under a decade-old FEC precedent, candidates that word their TV ads a certain way — including references to generic ‘Democrats’ and ‘Republicans’ as well as specific candidates — can split the cost of those ads with their party, even if that means blowing past the normal coordinated spending caps. To date, more than a dozen Democratic challengers are benefiting from such ‘hybrid’ advertising, getting extra hundreds of thousands of dollars apiece from the” DCCC. (Politico)
PREDICTIONS. DCCC Chairman Ben Ray Luján (D-NM) said he believes Trump's 2005 video will lead to more House gains but stopped short of speculating on a number.
"What I can say is that a result of the American people finding out about the vitriol that Donald Trump spoke of women through the release of the tapes, since the release of those tapes, I’m more optimistic that we’ll pick up more seats than was originally expected,” Luján said. “What those numbers are, we’ll see going into election night.” (Roll Call)