Democrats Don’t Need Policy Wins to Score Politically

So far, Demo­crats have made 2014 — all two weeks of it — all about in­come in­equal­ity, push­ing policies to close the gap between the na­tion’s wealthy and poor. A pro­pos­al to raise the fed­er­al min­im­um wage and a bill to ex­tend fed­er­al un­em­ploy­ment be­ne­fits have dom­in­ated head­lines.

But from a polit­ic­al stand­point, does it mat­ter wheth­er Demo­crats can get their policies passed?

Some strategists say it doesn’t, ar­guing that push­ing these pro­pos­als against Re­pub­lic­an res­ist­ance will be more ef­fect­ive in Novem­ber’s midterm elec­tions than policy vic­tor­ies.

“In some ways, the fail­ure to get these things done, I think, makes these is­sues as clear and sharp a dis­tinc­tion between the two parties as if they get through,” said Demo­crat­ic poll­ster Guy Mo­lyneux.

Re­pub­lic­ans have ar­gued that a min­im­um-wage hike would do more harm than good, mak­ing com­pan­ies less likely to provide the jobs Amer­ic­ans sorely need. “The min­im­um wage makes it more ex­pens­ive for em­ploy­ers to hire low-skilled work­ers,” said Rep. Paul Ry­an, in re­marks pre­pared for a speech at the Brook­ings In­sti­tu­tion on Monday.

Demo­crats, on the oth­er hand, have em­phas­ized the un­fair­ness of a min­im­um wage whose pur­chas­ing power peaked in the 1960s, and are push­ing a pro­pos­al to raise the fed­er­al min­im­um to $10.10 an hour from its cur­rent level of $7.25.

“If some­body worked full-time, year-round and makes the min­im­um wage “¦ they’re still rais­ing a fam­ily be­low the poverty line,” Jason Fur­man, chair­man of the White House Coun­cil of Eco­nom­ic Ad­visers, said Tues­day.

The pub­lic, for now, has largely sided with the Demo­crats’ point of view.

A poll re­leased by Quin­nipi­ac Uni­versity last week in­dic­ated that 71 per­cent of Amer­ic­an voters sup­port rais­ing the min­im­um wage, com­pared with 27 per­cent who op­pose it. A Decem­ber NBC News/Wall Street Journ­al poll showed sim­il­ar en­thu­si­asm for high­er wages, with 63 per­cent of Amer­ic­ans sup­port­ing an in­crease to $10.10.

Un­em­ploy­ment in­sur­ance is slightly more di­vis­ive. The same Quin­nipi­ac poll in­dic­ated that 58 per­cent sup­port an ex­ten­sion of job­less be­ne­fits for three months, com­pared to 37 per­cent who would op­pose such a move.

This is why polit­ic­al ana­lysts see little down­side for Demo­crats who have pledged to put these is­sues front and cen­ter, even if they stall in Con­gress — and stall they might.

On Tues­day, le­gis­lat­ive ef­forts to ex­tend job­less be­ne­fits were blocked in the Sen­ate and ne­go­ti­ations stalled, while Con­gress-watch­ers see little chance for the min­im­um wage to move through.

“I just don’t see it mak­ing it through the House,” said Greg Val­liere, chief polit­ic­al strategist for the Po­tom­ac Re­search Group.

It’s too soon to de­term­ine the ex­tent to which these in­di­vidu­al is­sues will shape elec­tion res­ults, even if Demo­crats re­tain the pub­lic’s sup­port on un­em­ploy­ment in­sur­ance and the min­im­um wage. The lat­ter “is an is­sue that the Demo­crats are count­ing on to take every­body’s fo­cus off of Obama­care’s prob­lems,” Re­pub­lic­an poll­ster Glen Bol­ger said. Ac­cord­ing to a Gal­lup poll re­leased Fri­day, 54 per­cent of Amer­ic­ans dis­ap­prove of the Af­ford­able Care Act, com­pared with 38 per­cent who ap­prove of the 2010 health re­form law.

“I think a lot of Re­pub­lic­ans would say the pub­lic an­ti­pathy to­ward Obama­care is a much big­ger factor in the elec­tion than the min­im­um wage,” Val­liere said.

Oth­er polit­ic­al ana­lysts cau­tion against put­ting too much stock in either is­sue be­ing de­cis­ive. Chris­toph­er Wlez­i­en, a gov­ern­ment pro­fess­or at the Uni­versity of Texas, said the state of the eco­nomy (shaken by a weak­er-than-ex­pec­ted Decem­ber jobs re­port), for­eign policy, and any ma­jor scan­dals that af­fect the pres­id­ent’s ap­prov­al rat­ing tend to be more im­port­ant than in­di­vidu­al policy po­s­i­tions.

“In or­der to get a single is­sue to have a big in­flu­ence on an elec­tion, it has to be one that is really sa­li­ent to lots of voters and on which the parties are really, really split “¦ and where the pub­lic is really one-sided, and that’s a hard trio to have,” Wlez­i­en said.

Re­pub­lic­ans in re­cent weeks have been work­ing to close that di­vide by of­fer­ing their own pro­pos­als to deal with the coun­try’s in­come dis­par­ity. Sen. Marco Ru­bio has pro­posed that the fed­er­al gov­ern­ment cre­ate a single agency that would fun­nel its an­ti­poverty money to states.

“Rais­ing the min­im­um wage may poll well,” Ru­bio said in a speech last week, “but hav­ing a job that pays $10 an hour is not the Amer­ic­an Dream.”