Ted Cruz Is Losing His Grip on the GOP

Early presidential polling doesn’t tell you much about 2016. But a steep drop in support for the Texas Republican shows he may need another filibuster.

Republican Senator Ted Cruz of Texas attends a hearing on sequestration effects on military budget and spending before the Senate Armed Services Committee on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC, November 7, 2013.
National Journal
Matt Berman
Add to Briefcase
Matt Berman
Jan. 16, 2014, midnight

Hid­den in a new NBC News/Mar­ist poll on Chris Christie are some pretty bleak num­bers for Sen. Ted Cruz.

The poll asked Re­pub­lic­ans and Re­pub­lic­an-lean­ing in­de­pend­ents who, if they were vot­ing today, they’d sup­port in a 2016 GOP pres­id­en­tial primary. Christie came in first with 16 per­cent sup­port, fol­lowed by Rep. Paul Ry­an, R-Wis. (12 per­cent), Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky. (9 per­cent), former Flor­ida Gov. Jeb Bush (8 per­cent), and Sen. Marco Ru­bio, R-Fla. (7 per­cent).

You’ll no­tice Cruz — who was in the top five in dis­tant Decem­ber, 2013 — is miss­ing from that list. That’s be­cause the Texas Re­pub­lic­an, who briefly led the GOP pack in at least one poll fol­low­ing his 21-hour Septem­ber Sen­ate floor speech, dropped from 10 per­cent sup­port in Decem­ber to 5 per­cent sup­port in Janu­ary. If Chris Christie doesn’t run, Ted Cruz is still not a top five choice, be­ing beat out by the likes of Rick San­tor­um. The poll does have a 5 per­cent mar­gin of er­ror among Re­pub­lic­an voters though, so good news for Cruz is, he could really be back up at 10. Or, you know, all the way down to zero.

This bears re­peat­ing: 2016 polls so far out are really, really silly for try­ing to get a good sense of who is go­ing to win come Elec­tion Day. In the NBC News/Mar­ist poll, a quarter of GOP voters are un­de­cided. But these new num­bers do show just how fleet­ing polit­ic­al crushes can be.

Def­in­itely don’t bet against Cruz re­gain­ing some of that fall 2013 fire ahead of a pos­sible pres­id­en­tial cam­paign. But right now, he seems to be drift­ing away from the radar.

What We're Following See More »
WHILE ROME BURNS?
Trump Hosting $100,000/Couple Fundraiser at Mar-a-Lago
43 minutes ago
THE LATEST

Even while Congress works to avoid a government shutdown at 5 p.m. today, "President Donald Trump will mark the first anniversary of his inauguration on Saturday with a celebration at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida, with tickets starting at $100,000 a pair. That amount, according to the invitation, will pay for dinner and a photograph with the president. For $250,000, a couple can also take part in a roundtable." The event will boost the Trump presidential campaign and the RNC.

Source:
DACA STILL A STICKING POINT
House Passes Spending Bill, but Senate May Balk
1 hours ago
THE LATEST

"The House approved a stopgap spending bill on Thursday night to keep the government open past Friday, but Senate Democrats — angered by President Trump’s vulgar aspersions and a lack of progress on a broader budget and immigration deal — appeared ready to block the measure. The House approved the measure 230 to 197, despite conflicting signals by President Trump sent throughout the day and a threatened rebellion from conservatives that ended up fizzling. But the bill, which would keep the government open through Feb. 16, provided only a faint glimmer of hope that a crisis could be averted before funding expires at midnight on Friday. In the Senate, at least about a dozen Democratic votes would be needed to approve the measure, and there was little chance that those would materialize."

Source:
RYAN SAYS HOUSE WILL VOTE TONIGHT
Senate Dems Say They Can Block Spending Measure
19 hours ago
THE LATEST

House Speaker Paul Ryan says he has the votes to pass a short-term spending bill tonight, but "Senate Democrats said they're confident they have the votes to block the stop-gap spending bill that the House is taking up, according to two Democratic senators and a senior party aide. And top Senate Republicans are openly worried about the situation as they struggle to keep their own members in the fold."

Source:
HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS IN SUSPICIOUS CHECKS FLAGGED
Mueller’s Team Scrutinizing Russian Embassy Transactions
21 hours ago
THE LATEST
PRO-TRUMP SPENDING COULD VIOLATE FECA
FBI Investigating Potential Russian Donations to NRA
21 hours ago
THE DETAILS

"The FBI is investigating whether a top Russian banker with ties to the Kremlin illegally funneled money to the National Rifle Association to help Donald Trump win the presidency." Investigators have focused on Alexander Torshin, the deputy governor of Russia’s central bank "who is known for his close relationships with both Russian President Vladimir Putin and the NRA." The solicitation or use of foreign funds is illegal in U.S. elections under the Federal Election Campaign Act (FECA) by either lobbying groups or political campaigns. The NRA reported spending a record $55 million on the 2016 elections.

Source:
×
×

Welcome to National Journal!

You are currently accessing National Journal from IP access. Please login to access this feature. If you have any questions, please contact your Dedicated Advisor.

Login