How Technology Is Unraveling the Clues of Flight MH17

A look at the technology helping piece together what happened to Flight MH17 in Ukraine.

National Journal
Patrick Tucker, Defense One
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Patrick Tucker, Defense One
July 22, 2014, 8:13 a.m.

Over the week­end, the Malay­sia Air­lines Flight MH17 tragedy turned in­to a “Law and Or­der” epis­ode on the in­ter­na­tion­al stage with Sec­ret­ary of State John Kerry ap­pear­ing on Fox News and oth­er out­lets to make a sys­tem­ic case against Rus­sia, prompt­ing Fox News in­ter­view­er Chris Wal­lace to ob­serve that Kerry was once “a pro­sec­utor in Mas­sachu­setts.”

So what does Kerry’s case con­sist of? The U.S. is con­fid­ent that the murder weapon was an SA-11 Gad­fly 9K37M1Buk -1M fired mis­sile. A dis­patch from the U.S. Em­bassy in Ukraine in­dic­ates that the rock­et launch­er was giv­en to pro-Rus­si­an sep­ar­at­ists by Mo­scow. At this point, no one is say­ing that the sep­ar­at­ists in­ten­ded to down a pas­sen­ger jet. Evid­ence (see be­low) sug­gests that rebel forces be­lieved the plane was a Ukrain­i­an mil­it­ary trans­port vehicle, since the Buk radar guid­ance sys­tem provides very, very little in­form­a­tion about the type of tar­get it’s point­ing at. Pro-Rus­si­an con­spir­acy mon­gers, mean­while, are look­ing to plant blame for the in­cid­ent on Ukraine, claim­ing that the down­ing of the plane was a de­lib­er­ate act of the Ukrain­i­an gov­ern­ment.

The en­tire fu­ture of the Ukrain­i­an con­flict could change dra­mat­ic­ally and de­cis­ively as a res­ult of last week’s events. The United States may fi­nally have the jus­ti­fic­a­tion to be­gin bet­ter arm­ing the Ukrain­i­ans, which would es­cal­ate the con­flict. So far the Pentagon has only provided non-leth­al as­sist­ance. But Kerry said the U.S. is talk­ing with the Kiev about “what they need,” and that could in­clude “any­thing ex­cept Amer­ic­an troops”

The U.S. will also look to con­vince European part­ners to im­pose tough­er sanc­tions on Rus­sia. “Four per­cent of Rus­sia’s trade is with the United States; 50 per­cent of their en­gage­ment is with Europe,” Kerry told Fox News. If the U.S. can present a case to show that Rus­sia gave the Ukrain­i­ans the arms and the train­ing to down an air­liner car­ry­ing mostly Dutch cit­izens, European part­ners may side with the U.S. in a tough­er sanc­tions re­gime.

The ar­gu­ment against Rus­sia must be in­cred­ibly per­suas­ive. Here’s a look at the forensic tech­no­lo­gies that will make the case.

In­frared Satel­lite Im­agery

“We know with a cer­tainty that we saw the launch from this area”¦we know that it oc­curred at this very mo­ment that this air­craft dis­ap­peared from the radar screen” said Kerry on Sunday.

The most im­port­ant ele­ment in in­stilling sim­il­ar cer­tainty among European part­ners will prob­ably be in­frared satel­lite im­agery. The Na­tion­al Re­con­nais­sance Of­fice, or NRO, and the Air Force Space Com­mand op­er­ate a num­ber of in­frared satel­lites, such as the Space Based In­frared Sys­tem (SBIRS). There are cur­rently two SBIRS satel­lites in or­bit but there will be six by 2022, with Lock­heed Mar­tin as de­veloper, un­der con­trol of Air Force Space Com­mand.

The NRO couldn’t com­ment on the use of in­frared satel­lites in the MH17 case, ex­cept to tell De­fense One that “facts about the NRO con­stel­la­tion, in­clud­ing cap­ab­il­it­ies and past and present op­er­a­tions are clas­si­fied.” But the U.S.has un­der­stood the im­port­ance of in­frared satel­lite im­agery for re­con­nais­sance since the 1950s when we de­veloped these sys­tems for very much the same reas­on we are us­ing them today, to track rock­et launches from ma­chines like the SA-11. For a great primer, read Sean Galla­gh­er’s piece here.

Satel­lite im­ages provide a lit­er­al smoking-gun por­trait of the events sur­round­ing the downed plane. But the U.S. has burned its fin­gers on smoking gun satel­lite im­ages be­fore. Oth­er pieces of evid­ence will likely play a role as the U.S. builds its case.

Chem­ic­al Sig­na­tures on Air­plane Parts

To prove that its the­ory of the events is true, the U.S. needs data from in­vest­ig­at­ors on the ground in Ukraine from the Or­gan­iz­a­tion for Se­cur­ity and Co-op­er­a­tion in Europe, OSCE. They, in turn, need ac­cess to the debris at the crash site to col­lect samples from evid­ence. That’s proven to be a thorny is­sue, as evid­enced by news re­ports that the con­trolling sep­ar­at­ist forces in Don­etsk are ob­stin­ate, threat­en­ing, com­monly in­tox­ic­ated and have blocked both me­dia and in­vest­ig­at­ors.

Kerry said that OSCE mon­it­ors were giv­en just three hours to ac­cess the scene on Sat­urday — and the site is already com­prom­ised. “We un­der­stand air­plane parts have been re­moved,” Kerry said.

If the Obama ad­min­is­tra­tion is cor­rect, what will the ground evid­ence show? The dis­tri­bu­tion of debris, once fully cata­logued, would con­firm a vi­ol­ent sud­den ex­plo­sion, as op­posed to a long trail of parts in­dic­at­ing a slow break­ing apart and would in­clude mis­sile shrapnel. It would also show that the radar-guided mis­sile likely ex­ploded with­in about 65 feet from the tar­get. In­frared ima­ging might show ex­plos­ive residue some­what evenly dis­trib­uted on the bot­tom of the plane. Con­versely, an ex­cess­ive amount of ex­plos­ive residue on the en­gines could in­dic­ate that the mis­sile was heat seek­ing and not shot from an SA-11 and that the U.S.was wrong.

The Black Boxes

The Boe­ing 777, like all com­mer­cial air­craft, has two com­pon­ents re­cord­ing in­f­light data. There’s a cock­pit voice re­cord­er in the front and a flight data re­cord­er in the tail of the plane, which re­cords in­form­a­tion from the vari­ous sensors and oth­er in­dic­at­ors throughout the craft. Data from these two sources is col­lec­ted in the crash sur­viv­able memory unit orC­SMU, which have been built to with­stand the heat, wa­ter, and the phys­ic­al ef­fects of a ma­jor crash.

Con­tro­versy has sur­roun­ded the con­di­tion these boxes at theM­H17 crash site, with con­flict­ing re­ports in­dic­at­ing that they were to be sent to Mo­scow. At last check, the Don­etsk rebels and Malay­si­an rep­res­ent­at­ives had brokered a deal to ex­change the boxes. Hours earli­er on Monday morn­ing, the spec­u­la­tion over their con­di­tion reached a fever pitch when the New York Post ran a scream­ing head­line de­clar­ing a “rebel plot” to steal the re­cord­ers. Cer­tainly they were in rebel hands for at least sev­er­al hours.

How hard is it to hack a black box? Ac­cord­ing to tech­nic­al ex­perts fa­mil­i­ar with their design who spoke to De­fense One, the an­swer is not very. Mod­ern-day flight data re­cord­ers use sol­id state drives, SSDs, to store in­form­a­tion. Un­like the hard drive in most PCs, SSDs con­sist of a bunch of memory flash drives stacked on top of one an­oth­er. They store memory with no mov­ing parts so they are con­sidered far more rugged than con­ven­tion­al hard drives. This is why en­gin­eers began us­ing them on planes.

Iron­ic­ally, SSDs may ac­tu­ally be more hack­able than the con­ven­tion­al hard drives they re­placed. When you over­write a file on an SSD, you don’t leave the same clear re­cord that you do when you de­lete a file on your com­puter. In fact, some mem­bers of the com­puter forensics com­munity have soun­ded the alarm about the grow­ing pop­ular­ity of SSDs and the trouble they could cause in terms of evid­ence dis­cov­ery and re­ten­tion in the fu­ture. Graeme Bell and Richard Bod­ding­ton of the Uni­versity of Mur­doch in Aus­tralia even went so far as to opine that “it seems pos­sible that the golden age for forensic re­cov­ery and ana­lys­is of de­leted data and de­leted metadata may now be end­ing” be­cause of SSDs.

In the case of MH17, the boxes aren’t likely to provide much new in­form­a­tion. Forensics teams use them to de­term­ine the mech­an­ic­al or hu­man cause of a crash. But re­cov­er­ing the boxes could be use­ful in this case to cat­egor­ic­ally rule out pi­lot er­ror or mech­an­ic­al mal­func­tion. If the data on the boxes does in fact sug­gest that something else happened to the plane, that de­vel­op­ment would no doubt fuel the con­spir­acy the­or­ies that have already taken route across the In­ter­net, which could play to Rus­sia’s ad­vant­age.

The Eye­wit­ness Testi­mony

In the case of MH17, the world already knows who the most im­port­ant wit­nesses are, mem­bers of the sep­ar­at­ist army who quickly took to so­cial me­dia to brag about shoot­ing down a plane they be­lieved was a Ukrain­i­an cargo jet. Of par­tic­u­lar sig­ni­fic­ance is a post from former Rus­si­an mil­it­ary of­ficer Ig­or Strelkov, the self-de­clared Min­is­ter of De­fense of the Don­etsk People’s Re­pub­lic. It ap­peared on VK.Com, Rus­sia’s ver­sion of Face­book, and re­portedly boas­ted that his troops had scored a hit, stat­ing “we warned you — do not fly in our sky.”

The prob­lem is that the wit­nesses are re­cant­ing. Strelkov (or someone) re­moved the post in short or­der. Sim­il­arly, as Agence France Press re­ports, pro-sep­ar­at­ist forces began tak­ing down in­crim­in­at­ing tweets and posts shortly after they ap­peared. In one par­tic­u­larly re­veal­ing ex­change, the Don­etsk Re­pub­lic Twit­ter feed, @dnr­press, ac­know­ledged that “self-pro­pelled Buk sur­face-to-air mis­sile sys­tems have been seized by theD­NR from (Ukrain­i­an) sur­face-to-air mis­sile re­gi­ment A1402,” ac­cord­ing to AFP.

In many ways, that may be the most im­port­ant tweet in the en­tire con­flict, since it now pur­ports to show not only that not only did the sep­ar­at­ists have the means to carry out the at­tack, but that they did not ac­quire the mis­sile launch­er from Rus­sia, as the U.S. be­lieves. Should Rus­sia de­cide to put more dis­tance between Mo­scow and the sep­ar­at­ists, it may use that ar­gu­ment. It’s un­clear how the so­cial me­dia posts, in total, will af­fect the U.S. case.

The good news for in­vest­ig­at­ors is that items on the In­ter­net tend to stay on the In­ter­net, es­pe­cially if they are in­ter­est­ing. Mul­tiple screen grabs caught the posts be­fore they van­ished, each one cor­rob­or­at­ing the oth­er.

All of this evid­ence tells the story of a unique mo­ment in his­tory.

In one swift com­mand ex­e­cu­tion, one man, sit­ting be­hind an old radar screen and armed with a 1,500 pound rock­et, caused the deaths of al­most 300 people, af­fected Putin’s re­la­tion­ship with the sep­ar­at­ists as well as Rus­sia’s with Europe and pos­sibly changed the dir­ec­tion of the con­flict — and his­tory. If the last sev­er­al days provide any in­dic­a­tion of what lies ahead, there will be deni­al, ac­cus­a­tion and overt ly­ing to come. We may nev­er really know what happened to MH17, but we can still get much closer to truth.

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