How much do you think the president’s flagging approval rating will affect the midterms?
DEMOCRATS (90 VOTES)
A lot: 40%
A little: 17%
Not at all: 0%
“In elections, some things are causation, some are correlation. This is both.”
“It always has a big effect, no matter the president.”
“Democrats have yet to find a redeeming midterm voice.”
“The president’s approval ratings always matter in midterms — if he can get them up to high 40s, that helps Dems. If in the low 40s or below, will be a very bad year for Dems.”
“Obama needs to be on the upswing to prevent Democrats from the downswing.”
“But it’s not today’s ratings; it’s October’s that will impact.”
“The real question is, how much is Congress’s bad rating going to impact midterms?”
“It will have an impact, but individual campaigns will have dynamics that define their particular race.”
“He’s less of a factor than he could be, but he still raises more money than anyone else. Advice to candidates: Cash the checks.”
“They may not be flagging by November.”
“My advice to GOP: Be careful what you wish for. POTUS numbers will rebound in fall.”
“He is doing worst where it matters most: AK, AR, LA, and NC.”
“Virtually no Democrat benefits from close association with this White House.”
“Hate Washington, love your member of Congress.”
“Depends on whether Obamacare works.”
How much do you think the president’s flagging approval rating will affect the midterms?
REPUBLICANS (98 VOTES)
A lot: 70%
A little: 2%
Not at all: 2%
“Just imagine how different the atmosphere would be if his job approval were 65 percent.”
“It’s already resulted in better recruiting for the GOP than we’d have expected a year ago.”
“Winter is coming for the Democrats.”
“Pretending otherwise is nothing more than wishful thinking on the part of the Democrats.”
“For every Democrat who wanted to appear with the president and pretend they are part of the Doublemint twins, this is a huge problem.”
“America is exhausted with Barack Obama, and it will cost Democrats.”
“Like winning, the president’s approval isn’t everything — it’s the only thing.”
“Obama’s presidency is like a superhyped new TV show that never quite attracted viewers, was well-liked by a handful of critics, and finally got canceled about three years too late.”
“It’s still just May.”
“I think it will hinge more on a particular Congress member’s vote on Obamacare than the president’s approval ratings.”
“Probably not to the extent that Republicans would like it to.”
“It is already baked in the cake. Pryor, Landrieu, Begich, and Hagan are already in trouble.”
Not at all
“Only 923 days remaining.”
… … … … …
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The House Intelligence Committee voted to release the November 14 testimony of Glenn Simpson, the man at Fusion GPS who oversaw the creation of the now infamous Trump-Russia dossier. Simpson's testimony includes a number of startling claims, including that Russia infiltrated conservative political groups prior to the election, and that Trump had "long time associations" with the Italian Mafia," and that he "gradually during the nineties became associated with Russian mafia figures." Simpson also testified that Trump called off a post-election meeting with Alexander Torshin, the deputy governor of Russia’s central bank and a longtime member of the NRA, currently under investigation by the FBI for money laundering. Simpson said that the discoveries were so alarming that he felt compelled to go to the authorities. The full text of the transcript can be read here.
House Speaker Paul Ryan says he has the votes to pass a short-term spending bill tonight, but "Senate Democrats said they're confident they have the votes to block the stop-gap spending bill that the House is taking up, according to two Democratic senators and a senior party aide. And top Senate Republicans are openly worried about the situation as they struggle to keep their own members in the fold."
The bipartisan legislation, known as the Congressional Accountability Act of 1995 Reform Act, means taxpayers will "no longer foot the bill" for sexual harassment settlements involving members of Congress." The legislation "would require members to pay such settlements themselves." It also reforms the "cumbersome and degrading" complaint process by giving victims "more rights and resources," and by simplifying and clarifying the complaint process. The legislation is the first major transformation of the sexual harassment complaint system since it was created in 1995.
"The FBI is investigating whether a top Russian banker with ties to the Kremlin illegally funneled money to the National Rifle Association to help Donald Trump win the presidency." Investigators have focused on Alexander Torshin, the deputy governor of Russia’s central bank "who is known for his close relationships with both Russian President Vladimir Putin and the NRA." The solicitation or use of foreign funds is illegal in U.S. elections under the Federal Election Campaign Act (FECA) by either lobbying groups or political campaigns. The NRA reported spending a record $55 million on the 2016 elections.