Political Insiders Poll

National Journal
Peter Bell, Sarah Mimms and Michael Catalini
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Peter Bell Sarah Mimms and Michael Catalini
June 18, 2014, 4 p.m.

Q: Who do you think will be the Re­pub­lic­an nom­in­ee in 2016?

DEMO­CRATS (90 votes)

Jeb Bush: 54%
Chris Christie: 2%
Ted Cruz: 1%
Bobby Jin­dal: 0%
John Kasich: 8%
Rand Paul: 10%
Mike Pence: 2%
Rick Perry: 4%
Marco Ru­bio: 2%
Paul Ry­an: 9%
Rick San­tor­um: 3%
Scott Walk­er: 4%
Oth­er: 1%

… … … .

Jeb Bush

Jeb Bush (Getty Im­ages)”If Bush runs, he has a bet­ter than 50-50 chance of get­ting the nom­in­a­tion.”

“The need to have a cred­ible can­did­ate will trump the oth­ers in the clown car.”

“It will be a tough ride. He is the es­tab­lish­ment fa­vor­ite, and they will win.”

“If he runs, he’ll be the nom­in­ee.”

“The GOP is tired of los­ing, and they will go with the es­tab­lish­ment can­did­ate.”

“If Jeb res­ists the urge to join the ‘me-too’ chants of the far-right can­did­ates, he can sur­vive the slug­fest and be­come a for­mid­able nom­in­ee. If not, it’s a jump ball.”

“There’s an­oth­er Bush in our polit­ic­al fu­ture.”

“They love the Bushes.”

John Kasich

“Kasich may be the true com­pas­sion­ate con­ser­vat­ive who can ap­peal broadly.”

“A per­son­able gov­ernor who has run be­fore and from Ohio, Ohio, Ohio.”

“This will be a de­moli­tion derby — Kasich may take it if Jeb stays in the stands.”

Rand Paul

“He has a base.”

“Re­pub­lic­ans will go where their heart is, and it’s all Paul.”

“He’s the smartest polit­ic­ally, and craft­i­est. He’s everything his fath­er wasn’t.”

Paul Ry­an

 “It has to be someone who can stand the scru­tiny. Ry­an had already stood the test.”

Scott Walk­er

“Bush will get cold feet or go all Gi­uliani. Paul is too weird, Ru­bio is too lame, and the rest are either noth­ing-bur­gers or freaks.”

“With Jeb play­ing Ham­let and Christie play­ing God­fath­er, the GOP es­tab­lish­ment will even­tu­ally co­alesce be­hind Scott Walk­er. The es­tab­lish­ment will not let the oth­ers win.”

Oth­er

“Rick Scott from Flor­ida.”

Q: Who do you think will be the Re­pub­lic­an nom­in­ee in 2016?

RE­PUB­LIC­ANS (92 votes)

Jeb Bush: 44%
Chris Christie: 11%
Ted Cruz: 2%
Bobby Jin­dal: 1%
John Kasich: 4%
Rand Paul: 2%
Mike Pence: 1%
Rick Perry: 1%
Marco Ru­bio: 22%
Paul Ry­an: 3%
Rick San­tor­um: 0%
Scott Walk­er: 8%
Oth­er: 1%

… … … .

Jeb Bush

“If it’s not him, we are doomed.”

“If the Clin­ton name isn’t dis­qual­i­fy­ing, neither is the Bush name.”

“The most adult can­did­ate — and prob­ably the best of all the Bushes.”

“Best fits the pro­file of all GOP primary win­ners for the past three dec­ades.”

“As gov­ernor, Bush was known in con­ser­vat­ive circles as ‘the Re­agan Bush.’ If he can re­vive that iden­tity, he can unite the party.”

“Jeb Bush with Rand Paul as VP.”

“This is more of a ‘should be’ rather than a ‘will be’ pick.”

Chris Christie

“Christie emerges from the over-hyped bridge-clos­ing is­sue and shows Re­pub­lic­ans what a full-spec­trum con­ser­vat­ive can ac­com­plish when prag­mat­ism and mov­ing the ball for­ward tri­umphs over lit­mus tests that keep us from even break­ing the huddle.”

“He is still re­cov­er­ing, but the Dems wer­en’t able to sink him.”

“Only Bush and Christie have a chance against Hil­lary.”

Ted Cruz

“After los­ing their shirts in this year’s primary battles, the ex­treme ele­ments of the party will rise up and take over the pres­id­en­tial nom­in­at­ing con­test and start the jour­ney to the most over­whelm­ing gen­er­al-elec­tion de­feat in the coun­try’s his­tory.”

Bobby Jin­dal

“Jin­dal has demon­strated elect­or­al suc­cess in tough cir­cum­stances, has the most com­pel­ling story, is ideo­lo­gic­ally sound, and is the smartest one of the bunch.”

John Kasich

“Kasich’s brash prag­mat­ism has won over many Demo­crats in this crit­ic­al swing state. If he’s reelec­ted gov­ernor in Novem­ber, look out.”

Mike Pence

“Great story and keeps all the dif­fer­ent parts of the GOP [to­geth­er].”

Rick Perry

“Perry will pull a Nix­on and re­bound from a sear­ing de­feat to unite both wings of the party.”

Sen. Marco Ru­bio (Getty Im­ages)Marco Ru­bio

“Ru­bio’s polit­ic­al skills will gradu­ally over­come his dis­astrous flir­ta­tion with am­nesty.”

“Vis­ion, en­ergy, youth. Ru­bio is the fu­ture of the party, today.”

“Ru­bio could emerge as the more dis­cip­lined can­did­ate than Christie and with a bet­ter abil­ity to unite base voters and mod­er­ates than the rest of the field.”

“Pick­ing Ru­bio re­quires two as­sump­tions: 1) Jeb is out; 2) We want to keep a loss to Hil­lary to 3 points.”

Paul Ry­an

“He is tested and ac­cept­able to all fac­tions and gen­er­a­tion­ally right.”

“He’s a genu­inely smart per­son and a genu­ine con­ser­vat­ive. He’ll plug along, while the prima don­nas tear each oth­er up … and come out the win­ner.”

Scott Walk­er

“But is he Tim Pawlenty 2.0: great résumé that does not trans­late out­side his state?”

“Checks all the boxes. Won con­sist­ently in a swing state, fought hard on con­ser­vat­ive prin­ciples and pre­vailed.”

Oth­er

“This [ques­tion is] about a year pre­ma­ture. Might as well throw a dart.”

… … … .

Demo­crat­ic Polit­ic­al In­siders Jill Alp­er, John An­za­lone, Brad Ban­non, Dave Beat­tie, Andy Bech­hoe­fer, Cor­nell Belch­er, Matt Ben­nett, Mitchell W. Ber­ger, Mike Ber­man, Stephanie Bosh, Paul Brath­waite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brew­er, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Bon­nie Camp­bell, Bill Car­rick, Guy Cecil, Mar­tin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Larry Co­hen, Jerry Craw­ford, Jeff Daniel­son, Peter Daou, Howard Dean, Scott De­Fife, Jim De­mers, Tad Dev­ine, Dav­id Di Mar­tino, Debbie Din­gell, Mon­ica Dix­on, Patrick Dor­ton, Pat Du­jakovich, An­ita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve El­men­d­orf, Carter Eskew, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Fer­son, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Fo­ley, Jef­frey For­bes, Vin­cent Fril­lici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Mi­chael Gonza­lez, Joe Grand­mais­on, Anna Green­berg, Stan Green­berg, Pat Griffin, Larry Griso­lano, Mi­chael Gron­stal, Lisa Grove, Mar­cia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Dick Har­poot­li­an, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Doug Hat­t­away, Mike Henry, Kar­en Hicks, Leo Hindery Jr., Har­old Ickes, Mar­cus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jard­ing, Jona­thon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kauf­man, Lisa Koun­toupes, Celinda Lake, Dav­id Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Le­hane, Jeff Link, Bob Malo­ney, Jim Man­ley, Steve Marchand, Jim Mar­gol­is, Paul Maslin, Keith Ma­son, Susan Mc­Cue, Ger­ald McEntee, Steve McMa­hon, Tom McMa­hon, Phil Mc­Namara, Dav­id Med­ina, Mi­chael Mee­han, Mark Mell­man, John Mer­rigan, Mi­chael Mon­roe, Steve Murphy, Janet Na­pol­it­ano, Dav­id Nas­sar, Mar­cia Nich­ols, John Nor­ris, Tom Ochs, Tom O’Don­nell, Jef­frey Peck, De­bora Pig­na­telli, Tony Podesta, Je­frey Pol­lock, Jack Quinn, Larry Rasky, Mame Re­iley, Ed Rendell, Steve Ric­chetti, Will Robin­son, Steve Rosenth­al, Dav­id Rudd, Ry­an Rudom­in­er, John Ry­an, Mi­chael Sar­geant, Stephanie Schriock, Terry Shu­maker, Sean Sin­clair, Phil Sing­er, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Greg Speed, Darry Sragow, Ken Strasma, Doug Thor­nell, Jef­frey Tram­mell, Ed Tur­l­ing­ton, Rick Wien­er, James Wil­li­ams, JoDee Win­ter­hof, Bri­an Wolff, Jon Young­dahl, and Jim Zo­gby.

GOP Polit­ic­al In­siders Dan Al­len, Stan An­der­son, Gary An­dres, Saul­i­us (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bain­wol, Bri­an Baker, Gary Bauer, Dav­id Beck­with, Paul Ben­necke, Clark Ben­son, Wayne Ber­man, Bri­an Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Bla­lock, Car­mine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bon­jean, Jeff Bu­ley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Al Carde­n­as, Danny Car­roll, Alex Cas­tel­lanos, Ron Christie, Jim Cic­coni, Jonath­an Col­le­gio, Rob Collins, Cesar Conda, Jake Cor­man, Scott Cot­ting­ton, Jay Cran­ford, Greg Crist, Di­ane Crookham-John­son, Fer­gus Cul­len, Tom Dav­is, Mike Den­nehy, Ken Duber­stein, Debi Durham, Sara Fa­gen, Frank Fahren­kopf, John Fee­hery, Don Fierce, Mindy Finn, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Bruce A. Gates, Sam Geduldig, Adam Geller, Ben­jamin Gins­berg, Dav­id Gir­ard-di­Carlo, Bill Green­er, Jonath­an Grella, Lanny Grif­fith, Janet Mullins Gris­som, Doug Gross, Todd Har­ris, Steve Hart, Chris­toph­er Healy, Ral­ph Hell­mann, Chris Hen­ick, Terry Holt, Dav­id Ian­nel­li, Ed Ingle, Jim In­no­cenzi, Clark Judge, Dav­id Keat­ing, Dav­id Ken­sing­er, Bob Kjel­lander, Ed Kut­ler, Chris La­Civ­ita, Jim Lake, Steven Law, Steve Lom­bardo, Kev­in Mad­den, Joel Maiola, Gary Malo­ney, Dav­id Mar­in, Mary Matal­in, Dan Mat­toon, Bri­an Mc­Cor­mack, Mark McKin­non, Kyle Mc­Slar­row, Ken Mehl­man, Jim Mer­rill, Lisa Cam­ooso Miller, Tim Mor­ris­on, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nel­son, Neil Ne­w­house, Dav­id Nor­cross, Zi­ad Ojakli, Jack Oliv­er, Todd Olsen, Kev­in O’Neill, Con­nie Par­toy­an, Billy Piper, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, Dav­id Rehr, Tom Reyn­olds, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, Dav­id Roeder­er, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, An­drew Shore, Kev­in Shuvalov, Don Sipple, Ken Spain, Fred Steep­er, Bob Steven­son, Terry Sul­li­van, Dav­id Tamasi, Eric Tan­en­blatt, Richard Temple, Heath Thompson, Jay Tim­mons, War­ren Tomp­kins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Don­gen, Jan van Lo­huizen, Stew­art Ver­dery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Lezlee West­ine, Dave Win­ston, Ginny Wolfe, Fred Wszolek, and Mat­thew Zablud.

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