The clearest dividing line on how people think about the Obamacare right now is between college- and non-college-educated white voters, a key distinction as one red-state Democratic group goes on the air with TV ads defending the law as strongly as any spots in four years.
— In new data from the Pew Research Center, Obamacare approval only narrowly trails disapproval among college whites, 42%-49%. But that gap becomes a chasm among non-college whites (22%-66%). And while college whites split 31%-33% on whether the law will affect their families positively or negatively in the future, non-college whites emphatically reject the possibility that it will help (17%-48%).
— That sets up very different fights over the law in, say, Colorado and New Hampshire (where recent exit polls put college whites at over half the electorate) versus red states like Arkansas or Montana (or Kentucky, where the state health exchange has performed well) where there have been non-college white majorities of voters.
— That makes the latest TV ad out in Alaska particularly interesting: The pro-Mark Begich super PAC there is featuring a woman cancer survivor who says that after being denied coverage by insurance companies, “I now have health insurance again, because of Mark Begich.” Personalizing the issue, which research demonstrates to work better than statistics, looks like a stab at “showing, not telling” people that Obamacare could affect them positively in the future.
Among non-college whites, at least, there’s really no where for Democrats to go on Obamacare but up. Whether that represents an opportunity to message to them in new ways, or a harsh reality ahead of November, remains to be seen.
— Scott Bland
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The national polls, once again, tell very different stories: Clinton leads by just one point in the IBD, Rasmussen, and LA Times tracking polls, while she shows a commanding 12 point lead in the ABC news poll and a smaller but sizable five point lead in the CNN poll. The Republican Remington Research Group released a slew of polls showing Trump up in Ohio, Nevada, and North Carolina, a tie in Florida, and Clinton leads in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Virginia. However, an independent Siena poll shows Clinton up 7 in North Carolina, while a Monmouth poll shows Trump up one in Arizona
If you need a marker for how confident Hillary Clinton is at this point of the race, here's one: CNN's Jeff Zeleny reports "she's been talking to Republican senators, old allies and new, saying that she is willing to work with them and govern."
Sources tell CNN that longtime Democratic operative Ron Klain, who has been Vice President Biden's chief of staff, is "high on the list of prospects" to be chief of staff in a Clinton White House. "John Podesta, the campaign chairman, has signaled his interest in joining the Cabinet, perhaps as Energy secretary."