Analysts: China’s Cruise-Missile Focus Raises Proliferation Stakes

A Chinese missile frigate docks in Hong Kong in 2012. A new analysis warns that China's development of advanced cruise missiles raises the risk of its technology spreading to other countries.
National Journal
Diane Barnes
Add to Briefcase
Diane Barnes
May 13, 2014, 6:14 a.m.

Ana­lysts warn that China’s de­vel­op­ment of new cruise mis­siles raises the risk of its tech­no­logy spread­ing to oth­er coun­tries.

“If China’s past re­cord of pro­lif­er­at­ing bal­list­ic mis­siles and tech­no­logy is any in­dic­a­tion of its in­ten­tions vis-à-vis cruise mis­sile trans­fers, the con­sequences could be highly dis­rupt­ive for the non­pro­lif­er­a­tion re­gime,” aca­dem­ics An­drew Eric­son, Den­nis Gorm­ley and Jing­dong Yuan wrote in a Monday ana­lys­is for the Na­tion­al In­terest.

The ex­perts said China’s pur­suit of new an­ti­sh­ip and land-at­tack cruise mis­siles is in­ten­ded largely to pre­pare against pos­sible ten­sions over Taiwan, a self-gov­ern­ing is­land claimed by Beijing as Chinese ter­rit­ory. They ad­ded, though, that out­side act­ors have pre­vi­ously ob­tained Chinese arms, which may one day in­clude an ad­vanced nuc­le­ar-ready cruise mis­sile for hit­ting land-based tar­gets.

Past Chinese ac­tions have held up Beijing’s dec­ade-old ef­fort to join the Mis­sile Tech­no­logy Con­trol Re­gime, ac­cord­ing to Eric­son and Yuan, who work as as­so­ci­ate pro­fess­ors at the U.S. Nav­al War Col­lege in Rhode Is­land and at Sydney Uni­versity, re­spect­ively.

They said mem­bers of the 34-coun­try ex­port con­trol group are skep­tic­al of China’s past as­sur­ances that it would in­form­ally ob­serve rules es­tab­lished by the or­gan­iz­a­tion, which is ded­ic­ated to lim­it­ing the spread of soph­ist­ic­ated mis­sile tech­no­lo­gies. Beijing pre­vi­ously sup­plied an­ti­sh­ip cruise mis­siles to Bangladesh, In­done­sia, Ir­an, My­an­mar and Pakistan, they wrote, cit­ing find­ings from the Stock­holm In­ter­na­tion­al Peace Re­search In­sti­tute. In ad­di­tion, Pakistan may have ob­tained land-tar­get­ing cruise mis­siles from China, ac­cord­ing to the ana­lysts.

The ana­lysts said bring­ing China in­to the mul­tina­tion­al group would rep­res­ent a sig­ni­fic­ant achieve­ment, but Beijing must first take sub­stan­tial steps to “cor­rect pre­vi­ous short­com­ings.”

Join­ing the mis­sile non­pro­lif­er­a­tion frame­work may ul­ti­mately ne­ces­sit­ate a “Her­culean ef­fort” by China to ramp up its en­force­ment of mis­sile-trade reg­u­la­tions among do­mest­ic ex­port­ers, they wrote.

Cla­ri­fic­a­tion: This story has been up­dated to identi­fy all three au­thors of the Na­tion­al In­terest ana­lys­is.

What We're Following See More »
WOULD HAVE BEEN HIS SECOND STINT
Howard Dean Pulls out of DNC Race
9 hours ago
THE LATEST

Howard Dean, the former Vermont governor and Democratic National Committee chair, announced he's pulling out of the running to regain the chairman's post. Dean "announced in a pre-recorded video to a conference of state Democratic chairs that he would step aside to allow for a new face to lead the party as it seeks to rebuild."

Source:
RUBENSTEIN FUNDING ELEVATOR REPAIR
Washington Monument Closed until 2019
10 hours ago
THE DETAILS

"Once again, businessman and philanthropist David M. Rubenstein has come through for the National Park Service. This time, he's pledged funding needed to modernize the Washington Monument's elevator-- but the monument will remain closed until 2019 while repairs and improvements are underway. Rubenstein's donation of between $2-3 million, announced Friday, will correct those ongoing elevator issues, which have shuttered the monument since August 17."

Source:
$618 BILLION IN FUNDING
By a Big Margin, House Passes Defense Bill
13 hours ago
THE DETAILS

The National Defense Authorization Act passed the House this morning by a 375-34 vote. The bill, which heads to the Senate next week for final consideration, would fund the military to the tune of $618.7 billion, "about $3.2 billion more than the president requested for fiscal 2017. ... The White House has issued a veto threat on both the House and Senate-passed versions of the bill, but has not yet said if it will sign the compromise bill released by the conference committee this week."

Source:
SUCCEEDS UPTON
Walden to Chair Energy and Commerce Committee
15 hours ago
THE DETAILS

"Republicans have elected Rep. Greg Walden (R-OR) the next chairman of the powerful House Energy and Commerce Committee. Walden defeated Reps. John Shimkus (R-IL) and Joe Barton (R-TX), the former committee chairman, in the race for the gavel" to succeed Michgan's Fred Upton.

Source:
BIPARTISAN SUPPORT
Senators Looking to Limit Deportations Under Trump
1 days ago
THE DETAILS

"Democratic and Republican members of the Senate Judiciary Committee are working on legislation that would limit deportations" under President-elect Donald Trump. Leading the effort are Judiciary Committee members Dick Durbin (D-IL) and Lindsey Graham (R-SC). Sen. Jeff Flake (R-AZ) is also expected to sign on.

Source:
×
×

Welcome to National Journal!

You are currently accessing National Journal from IP access. Please login to access this feature. If you have any questions, please contact your Dedicated Advisor.

Login