The DCCC rolled out over $43 million in fall TV reservations today, setting the table for this year’s general election. Here’s what we saw inside the list:
— First things first: This round of reservations breaks down almost evenly between Republican- and Democratic-held districts. The reservations are for markets with 20 Dem seats and 19 GOP ones, a split that highlights how difficult the path toward a Democratic House majority is — but also the race-by-race nature of this year’s House. The political environment favors the GOP, but not to such an overwhelming degree that local campaign characteristics are outweighed.
— Also, these reservations aren’t a perfect barometer for the landscape’s competitiveness. Rep. Chris Gibson‘s (R) NY-19 is missing, for example, though both parties think it’s a competitive district. A TV buy could come later, or Dems may make the calculation that self-funding Sean Eldridge (D) is capable of taking care of himself. But if other touted potential Democratic targets, like Rep. Joe Heck (NV-03), stay off the list of reservations in the future, that’s a bad sign for their prospects. Several districts that seem on their faces like bigger Dem reaches than suburban Vegas made today’s list, including ones in Arkansas and Michigan.
— Lastly, early reservations allow TV buyers to secure low rates before advertising floods in and prices go up in the fall. But that doesn’t mean anything is guaranteed. Another way to save is to trim buys in expensive markets and try to get more for the money in multiple, less expensive districts. Last cycle, for example, the DCCC’s late money-moving stripped expensive Philadelphia out of its spending plan and added places like Palm Springs, where Raul Ruiz (D-CA) ended up winning. As races clarify in the fall, how much of committee’s $2.8 million in DC for VA-10 and $2.5 million in Philly for three PA and NJ districts will stay online?
See the full breakdown of DCCC TV reservations below. It’s not final, but it’s a new, detailed data set on what we can expect to happen in the fall.
— Scott Bland
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Today in bad news for Donald Trump:
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In some of the first state-by-state surveys since Monday night's debate, Hillary Clinton has the edge in five battlegrounds, according to polls by Public Policy Polling. In four-way matchups, Clinton leads Donald Trump 46%-40% in Colorado, 45%-43% in Florida, 44%-42% in North Carolina, 45%-39% in Pennsylvania, and 46%-40% in Virginia. Gary Johnson doesn't top 7% in any state. Voters in all five states thought that Clinton decisively won the debate.