CONGRESS

With Doubts, Voters Prefer Obama Jobs Plan

Jobless: Desperate times.
National Journal
Ronald Brownstein
Add to Briefcase
Ronald Brownstein
Sept. 12, 2011, 5:35 p.m.

Des­pite deep­en­ing doubts about Pres­id­ent Obama’s eco­nom­ic agenda, Amer­ic­ans gen­er­ally prefer the pro­pos­als he offered last week for re­viv­ing the eco­nomy to the com­pet­ing ideas ad­vanced by con­gres­sion­al Re­pub­lic­ans and the GOP’s 2012 pres­id­en­tial field, a United Tech­no­lo­gies/Na­tion­al Journ­al Con­gres­sion­al Con­nec­tion Poll has found.

The poll sug­gests Amer­ic­ans re­main un­con­vinced that either party’s agenda can sig­ni­fic­antly dent the na­tion’s longest peri­od of sus­tained un­em­ploy­ment since the De­pres­sion. The share of Amer­ic­ans who said that Obama’s policies have com­poun­ded eco­nom­ic dif­fi­culties was nearly double the por­tion who said he has im­proved con­di­tions. And just one-in-six said they ex­pec­ted the jobs plan he sent to Con­gress will sig­ni­fic­antly re­duce un­em­ploy­ment.

Yet, nearly half of those sur­veyed thought his plan would help some­what, and the pres­id­ent still held a 37 per­cent to 35 per­cent ad­vant­age over con­gres­sion­al Re­pub­lic­ans when re­spond­ents were asked whom they trus­ted more to re­vive the eco­nomy.

The Con­gres­sion­al Con­nec­tion Poll, con­duc­ted by Prin­ceton Sur­vey Re­search As­so­ci­ates In­ter­na­tion­al, in­ter­viewed 1,010 adults by land­line and cell phone Sept. 8-11 for most of the ques­tions in the sur­vey; those ques­tions have a mar­gin of er­ror of plus or minus 3.6 per­cent­age points. In­ter­views about Obama’s new jobs plan, which he an­nounced on the even­ing of Sept. 8, were con­duc­ted with 783 adults Sept. 9-11; those ques­tions have a mar­gin of er­ror of 4.1 per­cent­age points.

With some ex­cep­tions, those polled saw more prom­ise in the ideas that Obama offered in his speech than pro­pos­als Re­pub­lic­ans are tout­ing in Con­gress and in the 2012 cam­paign. The sur­vey spe­cific­ally iden­ti­fied the al­tern­at­ives as pro­pos­als from the GOP or Pres­id­ent Obama.

The most pop­u­lar Re­pub­lic­an pro­pos­al is the call to pass a con­sti­tu­tion­al amend­ment to cap fed­er­al spend­ing at a fixed share of the eco­nomy and re­quire Wash­ing­ton to bal­ance its budget. Two-thirds of those polled thought that idea would be either very ef­fect­ive or some­what ef­fect­ive at cre­at­ing more jobs.

From Na­tion­al Journ­al:
PIC­TURES: GOP Can­did­ates De­bate in Tampa


Is Perry Mak­ing Rom­ney a Bet­ter Can­did­ate?

GRAPH­IC: Flor­ida’s Polit­ic­al Cor­ridor

Obama Gets Spe­cif­ic in His Jobs Bill

Charlie Cook: Volat­il­ity Now the Watch­word

But oth­er corner­stones of the GOP agenda drew more mod­est sup­port. Just 52 per­cent thought re­du­cing cor­por­ate taxes would be very ef­fect­ive or some­what ef­fect­ive at cre­at­ing jobs. When it came to what re­spond­ents thought would lead to a big jobs boost, 50 per­cent cited re­peal of Obama’s health care law, and 47 per­cent cited both Mitt Rom­ney’s pro­pos­al to re­quire Wash­ing­ton to re­peal a reg­u­la­tion for each new one pro­mul­gated and an ex­ten­sion of George W. Bush’s tax cuts for all earners.

Nearly as many (46 per­cent) thought that ex­tend­ing the Bush tax cuts would not be too ef­fect­ive or not ef­fect­ive at all. That was the most skep­ti­cism ex­pressed about any GOP ideas — al­though at least 37 per­cent also said ex­pressed doubt that re­peal­ing the health care law, lim­it­ing reg­u­la­tions as Rom­ney pro­posed, or cut­ting cor­por­ate taxes would do much good.

Ideas Obama touted in last week’s speech gen­er­ally fared bet­ter. Three-fourths of those polled said they be­lieved his pro­pos­al to cut taxes on em­ploy­ers who hire new work­ers, or provide a raise to ex­ist­ing ones, would be either very or some­what ef­fect­ive in cre­at­ing jobs. Sev­en-in-10 said the same about his pro­pos­al to provide state and loc­al gov­ern­ments funds to pre­vent lay­offs of teach­ers and po­lice of­ficers. Two-thirds rendered the same ver­dict on the idea of help­ing more homeown­ers re­fin­ance their mort­gages at lower in­terest rates.

The ele­ment of Obama’s plan that costs the most, and is most likely to at­tract sup­port from con­gres­sion­al Re­pub­lic­ans, ac­tu­ally polled the weak­est: cut­ting the So­cial Se­cur­ity payroll taxes paid by work­ers and em­ploy­ers. Just 42 per­cent of those sur­veyed be­lieved that would be even some­what ef­fect­ive, while 52 per­cent thought it would have little or no ef­fect

For the most part, re­ac­tion to these ideas showed re­mark­able con­sist­ency across most of the demo­graph­ic fault lines. Par­tis­an­ship, not sur­pris­ingly, was the big ex­cep­tion: Re­pub­lic­ans re­spon­ded much more fa­vor­ably to the GOP ideas, and Demo­crats showed more en­thu­si­asm for Obama’s pro­pos­als. Oth­er than that, one of the few telling con­trasts came over tax cuts: Whites (at 51 per­cent) were much more likely than minor­it­ies (just 39 per­cent) to be­lieve that ex­tend­ing the Bush tax cuts would sig­ni­fic­antly help cre­ate jobs.

Con­versely, minor­it­ies (at 51 per­cent) were much more likely than whites (just 38 per­cent) to be­lieve that cut­ting So­cial Se­cur­ity taxes would im­prove con­di­tions. Seni­ors were es­pe­cially du­bi­ous of cut­ting So­cial Se­cur­ity taxes.

More fa­mil­i­ar di­vides re­sur­faced in as­sess­ments of Obama’s re­cord and his new plan. Over­all, about one-fifth of those sur­veyed said Obama’s eco­nom­ic policies since tak­ing of­fice had im­proved the eco­nomy; nearly two-fifths said he had made the eco­nomy worse, while the rest said his policies have had no ef­fect. That is Obama’s worst show­ing since tak­ing of­fice, when com­pared with earli­er find­ings on the same ques­tion from the non­par­tis­an Pew Re­search Cen­ter.

Re­ac­tions on that ques­tion showed a sharp ra­cial di­vide: though weak it­self, the share of minor­it­ies who thought Obama’s agenda had im­proved the eco­nomy (29 per­cent) still ex­ceeded the por­tion who thought he had weakened it (18 per­cent). But among whites, fully 48 per­cent thought his ac­tions had hurt the eco­nomy-nearly triple the 17 per­cent who be­lieved he had im­proved it. Col­lege-edu­cated whites, who have gen­er­ally been more pos­it­ive to­ward Obama, were as neg­at­ive on this judg­ment as whites without a col­lege de­gree, his toughest audi­ence throughout his pres­id­ency.

All of these res­ults un­der­score how much Obama’s hopes next year may turn on con­vin­cing voters to see the 2012 elec­tion as a for­ward-look­ing choice between com­pet­ing vis­ion rather than a ref­er­en­dum on his res­ults since 2009.

Load­ing

 

Load­ing

 

Load­ing

 

Load­ing

 

What We're Following See More »
IT’S OFFICIAL
Trump to Nominate Carson to Lead HUD
2 hours ago
THE LATEST

As has been rumored for a week, Donald Trump will nominate Ben Carson, his former rival, to lead the Department of Housing and Urban Development. In a statement, Trump said, "We have talked at length about my urban renewal agenda and our message of economic revival, very much including our inner cities. Ben shares my optimism about the future of our country and is part of ensuring that this is a Presidency representing all Americans. He is a tough competitor and never gives up."

Source:
TOO COSTLY, SAYS GREEN PARTY
Stein Drops Pennsylvania Recount
2 hours ago
THE LATEST

"Supporters of Green Party presidential candidate Jill Stein on Saturday withdrew a last-ditch lawsuit in Pennsylvania state court aimed at forcing a statewide ballot recount, another major setback in the effort to verify the votes in three states that provided President-elect Donald Trump his margin of victory. Ms. Stein’s campaign announced in a statement Saturday that the Pennsylvania lawsuit had been dropped after the court demanded that a $1 million bond be posted by the 100 Pennsylvania residents who brought the suit."

Source:
ANOTHER MORNING TWEETSTORM
Trump Threatens 35% Tariff on Companies that Move Overseas
2 hours ago
THE LATEST

In a series of early-morning tweets on Sunday, Donald Trump threatened companies that attempt to relocate out of the country. "Any business that leaves our country for another country, fires its employees, builds a new factory or plant in the other country, and then thinks it will sell its product back into the U.S. without retribution or consequence, is WRONG!," he wrote. "There will be a tax on our soon to be strong border of 35% for these companies."

Source:
EASEMENT DENIED
Army Corps Stopping Work on Dakota Pipeline
2 hours ago
THE LATEST

"The Army Corps of Engineers has decided to deny the easement for the construction of the Dakota Access Pipeline, the National Congress of American Indians said in a statement Sunday. The decision would essentially halt the construction of the oil pipeline right above the Standing Rock Sioux Reservation and it also comes as demonstrators across the country flocked to North Dakota in protest."

Source:
LOSES REFERENDUM VOTE
Italian Prime Minister to Step Down
2 hours ago
WHY WE CARE

Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi will submit his resignation today, after a referendum vote went against his side. The development represents yet another win for populism around the globe, as the populist 5 Stars Movement, Renzi's chief rivals, took 60 percent of the vote. Renzi claimed the reforms "were vital to modernize Italy."

Source:
×
×

Welcome to National Journal!

You are currently accessing National Journal from IP access. Please login to access this feature. If you have any questions, please contact your Dedicated Advisor.

Login