VIDEO: Gingrich Called an ‘Embarrassment’ During First Trip to Iowa

Add to Briefcase
May 18, 2011, 5:15 a.m.

Con­duc­ted 10/2-4 by Green­berg Quin­lan Ros­ner Re­search (D); sur­veyed 816 LVs; mar­gin of er­ror +/- 3.4% (re­lease, 10/7).

Obama As POTUS

- Now 9/2 Ap­prove 42% 45% Dis­ap­prove 52 52

Dir­ec­tion Of U.S.

- Now 9/2 Right dir. 29% 29% Wrong dir. 63 63

House Gen­er­al Elec­tion Match­up

- Now 9/2 Gen­er­ic GOP­er 49% 49% Gen­er­ic Dem 43 42 Oth­er 2 2 Un­dec 4 6


- Now 9/2 B. Obama 45%/44% 44%/45% The GOP 38 /42 35 /42 Dem Party 37 /47 36 /46 Dem Con­gress 36 /50 34 /50

Which Party Would Do A Bet­ter Job Hand­ling ___? (*, ^ — Split Samples)

- Dems GOP­ers Both Neither Un­dec Re­tire­ment/So­cial Se­cur­ity^ 44% 37% 1% 8% 11% Listen­ing to people^ 43 31 2 13 11 Be­ing on your side 40 38 1 8 12 Health care* 40 46 0 5 10 The eco­nomy 38 46 1 6 8 Bring­ing the right kind of change* 37 44 1 8 10 Taxes 37 48 1 6 9 Fed­er­al budget de­fi­cit* 34 46 0 8 11 Gov’t spend­ing^ 33 49 1 8 9

Re­mem­ber those five things we asked you to watch on Tues­day night? It turns out the voters de­cided to raise more ques­tions than even we had.

But here are the things we were watch­ing for:

1. How weak or strong will Mitt Rom­ney be on Wed­nes­day morn­ing?
In­ter­est­ingly enough, Rom­ney ap­peared far weak­er on Tues­day night than he turned out to be when every­one awoke the next day. With Ohio still hanging in the bal­ance at mid­night, Rick San­tor­um looked pretty good with Ten­ness­ee, Ok­lahoma, and North Dakota un­der his belt. Rom­ney had scored wins only in Mas­sachu­setts, a state he once gov­erned; Ver­mont, a neigh­bor­ing state; and Vir­gin­ia, where Ron Paul was his only com­pet­i­tion. And even there, Paul was able to con­sol­id­ate the anti-Rom­ney vote with 41 per­cent of the total.

But with his Ohio vic­tory, nar­row as it was, day­light showed Rom­ney to be so far ahead in the del­eg­ate count — with one third of those needed to clinch the nom­in­a­tion — that we were re­minded how dif­fi­cult it will be for any­one else to catch up. And he ad­ded wins in Idaho and Alaska for good meas­ure.

Mitt Rom­ney and Rick San­tor­um (CNN)

2. What is Rick San­tor­um’s path come Wed­nes­day morn­ing?
If you were ex­pect­ing San­tor­um (or Newt Gin­grich, or Paul) to fade away, you were sorely mis­taken. San­tor­um, as Rom­ney’s chief rival, was in­vig­or­ated by the re­l­at­ively in­ex­pens­ive suc­cess he had at keep­ing Rom­ney on the run. The Rom­ney forces are stress­ing their del­eg­ate ad­vant­age, but that is not new. San­tor­um, who has been able to tap in­to the rest­ive ranks of con­ser­vat­ive Re­pub­lic­ans who do not seem to trust the front-run­ner, is diving im­me­di­ately in­to Kan­sas, Mis­sis­sippi, and Alabama.

3. Will Gin­grich be cred­ible as a likely nom­in­ee even if he wins Geor­gia?
As his party’s nom­in­ee? It’s hard to see how. But as a trouble­maker for the fore­see­able fu­ture? Ab­so­lutely. “There are lots of bunny rab­bits that run through,” Gin­grich said dis­missively at his Geor­gia vic­tory party on Tues­day night. “I’m the tor­toise; I just take one step at a time.”

But un­like in Geor­gia, the afore­men­tioned San­tor­um plans to give Gin­grich a run for those anti-Rom­ney voters. As the res­ults in Vir­gin­ia demon­strated, the former Mas­sachu­setts gov­ernor is more vul­ner­able one-on-one. And as the res­ults in South Car­o­lina and Ten­ness­ee showed, Rom­ney is weak­er in the South.

The longer Gin­grich and San­tor­um duke it out, the bet­ter for Rom­ney. But that does not im­prove the map for Gin­grich.

Rom­ney aides told re­port­ers in a post-Su­per Tues­day strategy memo: “As Gov­ernor Rom­ney’s op­pon­ents at­tempt to ig­nore the ba­sic prin­ciples of math, the only per­son’s odds of win­ning they are in­creas­ing are Pres­id­ent Obama’s.”

4. How vig­or­ously will Pres­id­ent Obama try to use his White House bully pul­pit to stomp on the GOP’s big day?
Well, he did try. A White House news con­fer­ence or­din­ar­ily sucks all the air out of the room. But since the meet­ing with re­port­ers was dom­in­ated by ques­tions about na­tion­al se­cur­ity and U.S.-Is­rael re­la­tions, there was pre­cious little time de­voted to polit­ics.

But when it did come up — in the form of a ques­tion about what he wanted to say to Rom­ney, who had called him “the most feck­less pres­id­ent since Carter” — the pres­id­ent shrugged it off. “Good luck to­night,” he said to laughter. “Really?” a re­port­er asked. “Really,” the pres­id­ent replied, firmly and with a politi­cian’s smile.

It was a handy re­mind­er that the Obama cam­paign has nev­er taken its eye off the Rom­ney ball. They don’t mind that Rom­ney is in a dam­aging dog­fight, but they have al­ways con­sidered him to be the can­did­ate they will face in the fall.

5. Will Re­pub­lic­ans be­gin to co­alesce around a win­ner?
See above. Not quite yet. But ex­pect Rom­ney to spend the next sev­er­al weeks try­ing with all his might to roll out enough en­dorse­ments, raise enough money, and pull enough strings to rally the party around the strongest ar­gu­ment he has right now: in­ev­it­ab­il­ity.

What We're Following See More »
Former Rep. Bill Goodling Dies
18 minutes ago

Former Rep. Bill Goodling (R-PA), who served 26 years in the House representing York County, PA, died Sunday at age 89. Goodling, who succeeded his father George Goodling in 1975, "faced few serious opponents over the years, winning 13 consecutive terms. He retired in 2001." He also served as chair of the House Education and Labor Committee from 1995-2001.

Don Jr. and Conway Give Up Secret Service Protection
1 hours ago

"Donald Trump Jr., his wife Vanessa Trump, and Kellyanne Conway are dropping Secret Service protection, Fox News has confirmed. The move to get rid of round-the-clock protection came after Trump Jr. wished to have more privacy. Other family members of the president will remain under Secret Service protection." Conway dropped the protection after the threat level against her dropped from earlier in the administration.

UK Foreign Sec. Johnson Threatens to Resign
1 hours ago

British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson "will resign as Foreign Secretary before the weekend if Theresa May veers towards a 'Swiss-style' arrangement with the EU in her Brexit speech in Florence, The Telegraph understands." He "believes he will have no option but to walk out of the Cabinet if the Prime Minister advocates permanently paying for access to the single market."

Trillion-Dollar Tax Cut in the Offing for Senate GOP
1 hours ago

"Senate Republicans are considering writing a budget that would allow for up to $1.5 trillion in tax cuts over the next decade. ... A budget that creates fiscal room for a $1.5 trillion tax cut, if adopted, would then be followed by a tax bill that would specify rate cuts and other policy changes that don’t exceed that figure. Calling for a tax cut in the budget would let Republicans lower tax rates while making fewer tough decisions on what tax breaks to eliminate to help pay for the cuts."

Senate Votes to Boost Defense Spending by $700 Billion
1 hours ago

"The Senate has overwhelmingly approved a sweeping defense policy bill that would pump $700 billion into the military, putting the U.S. armed forces on track for a budget greater than at any time during the decade-plus wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Senators passed the legislation by an 89-8 vote Monday."


Welcome to National Journal!

You are currently accessing National Journal from IP access. Please login to access this feature. If you have any questions, please contact your Dedicated Advisor.