FNC commentator/ex-Bill Clinton adviser Dick Morris touted ex-Speaker Newt Gingrich (R) for WH ‘12 in a speech to FL GOP voters 10/1, referring to Pres. Obama as “the most evil president we’ve had to defeat” and promising Gingrich “could mop the floor with Barack Obama in a debate. He could run rings around him, and he doesn’t need a teleprompter to do that” (Gant, Daytona Beach News-Journal, 10/2).
Call Him Newtradamus
Gingrich predicted on 10/6 that GOPers “are on the verge of winning 55 to 65 seats in the House” on 11/2. He predicted his party would do “much better” than picking up the 39 seats they need to win back control of the House.
Gingrich said GOPers are “in striking range of winning back the 10 seats they need” to take back the Senate, but he stopped short of predicting an outright takeover. Gingrich: “All I’ll tell you is that, as a general principle right now, Republicans are probably between plus-55 and plus-65 in the House and they’re between plus-seven and plus-12 in the Senate.”
He also opined that the GOP wave would extend to state races. Gingrich: “And there’re going to be between 32 and 34 Republican governors after election night.”
Gingrich said the eletions might not be on the magnitude of ‘94 or ‘80, but probably closer to the ‘32 elections that saw Dems pick up 97 seats in the House. Gingrich: “I think that will be a bigger sweep than ‘94; it may [not be] comparable to anything we’ve seen since 1932” (O’Brien, The Hill, 10/7).
A lot has happened, but nothing has changed.
This, believe it or not, is what passes for searing insight into the race for the White House from the top advisers to President Obama and Mitt Romney.
What they mean is the battle was joined in June and July, huge amounts of money were spent on TV ads, sharp blows were exchanged over Bain Capital and tax returns (Obama on Romney) and Solyndra and “You didn’t build that” (Romney on Obama). There have been gaffes galore (Romney, Romney, and Romney again), discouraging economic news aplenty for Obama (quarterly GDP, unemployment, retail sales, and consumer confidence), and the emergence of a potentially profound philosophical choice America will make about direction, fairness, government, and growth.
A helluva lot has happened. But not much has changed … in the polls. The race remains a national tie within the margin of error. The Gallup tracking poll 100 days out had it tied at 46 percent (since 1964, every candidate who led this poll 100 days out except Michael Dukakis in 1988 went on to win). In swing states, Obama has picked up a bit of momentum, but margins remain too close for comfort. Obama has sold off some of his likability, but retains a huge likability edge over Romney. The economic news continues its gloomy slog. Romney retains his upside potential to sell himself as a turn-around specialist.
On the surface, not much has changed. At a deeper level, we know more than we did six weeks ago:
1. Romney can take a punch. Obama hit him and hit him hard on Bain, outsourcing, and tax returns. Romney wobbled but didn’t fall. Top Romney advisers aren’t stupid enough to believe they’ve taken all of Obama’s best shots, but they believe they’ve taken most of them, and they won’t be playing “rope-a-dope” ever again.
2. Obama has sown doubts about Romney. These are exposition doubts about values, middle-class connectedness, and shared goals. Not falling is not the same as gaining ground. Romney’s team knows this and understands it has got to do more to move undecided voters from curious but suspicious to curious and persuaded. They know Romney looks too rich for too long, like a misshapen vessel for middle-class aspirations. That they must change, which is why Romney debuted a new “I Believe” biography ad on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Obama retains these advantages even as he has traded down likability to grind up Mitt.
3. Obama has paid dearly to keep the race static. In the face of drab economic news, Obama has had to attack relentlessly. It’s been costly. Campaign to campaign, Obama has outspent Romney heavily in every swing state — with at least 70 percent of the statewide TV cost in Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Nevada, Iowa, Colorado, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire. Only in North Carolina is the Obama spending blitz below 70 percent of statewide TV cost (65 percent). Obama needs to feed this TV machine, which is why his fundraisers multiply, and when surrogates like the first lady show up in Boston (as she will next week) there is no ceremony or idle glad-handing. To attend, you have to write checks — personal ones. It’s cold and ruthless. Because Obama needs the money.
4. Narratives are coming. We are entering a new phase of the campaign where narratives begin to shape discussions and interpretations. Romney will hit the economy on Friday after the July jobs report comes out and add new specifics to his economic plan (responding to critics like Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker). Top aides said that from now on, Romney will talk less about generalities (taxes and debt) and more about middle-class specifics (take-home pay and cost of debt per child). He will also roll out his vice presidential pick (yes, there’s an app for that), and use the GOP convention to fan what appears to be organic small-business fury over Obama’s “You didn’t build that” remark. Obama will have his narratives of “forward” progress, an economy built to last, and breaking the D.C. stalemate. Both campaigns will devote time and energy soon to their own stories — reducing the frequency and intensity of the hour-to-hour skirmishes that dominated June and July.
5. Romney wasted time overseas. Israeli diplomat Abba Eban once famously said that the Arabs (not the Palestinians, as lore would have it) “never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity.” This can now be said of Romney. His hash of an overseas tour was a study in mismanagement and mediocrity. OK, he had a decent speech and good “golden hour” pictures in Jerusalem. How hard is that? If Olympic judges had scored his London visit, he would have been disqualified. The ranting at reporters in Poland (“Kiss my ass” and “Shove it”) from Romney’s press staff only heightened the image of frayed nerves. Will Romney lose the election because of the trip? No. But every day is precious, and fighting to ugly draws or losing them completely when you’re supposed to project strength, competence, and diplomatic acumen is malpractice. Gross malpractice.
A lot has happened. But the campaigns know each other better (like boxers), and voters have begun to sift a lot more information. It all looks static, and it sounds like white noise in saturated media markets (43,000-plus gross ratings points already in Des Moines!). But not much has changed. Or has it?
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The Presidential Inaugural Committee "acknowledged late Monday that a final report it filed with the Federal Election Commission this month was riddled with errors, many of which were first identified through a crowdsourced data project at HuffPost." The committee raised about $100 million for the festivities, but the 500-page FEC report, which detailed where that money came from, was riddled with problems. The likely culprit: a system of access codes sent out by the GOP's ticketing system. Those codes were then often passed around on the secondary market.
The Michael Flynn story is not going away for the White House as it tries to refocus its attention. The White House has denied requests from the House Oversight Committee for information and documents regarding payments that the former nationals security adviser received from Russian state television station RT and Russian firms. House Oversight Chairman Jason Chaffetz and ranking members Elijah Cummings also said that Flynn failed to report these payments on his security clearance application. White House legislative director Marc Short argued that the documents request are either not in the possession of the White House or contain sensitive information he believes are not applicable to the committee's stated investigation.
The U.S. deployed "F-35 joint strike fighters" to Estonia on Tuesday. The "jets will stay in Estonia for several weeks and will be a part of training flights with U.S. and other NATO air forces." The move comes at a time of high tension between the U.S. and Estonia's neighbor, Russia. The two nations have been at odds over a number of issues recently, most of all being Vladimir Putin's support of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in light of Assad's chemical weapons attack on his own people in the midst of a civil war.
It took long enough, but the Trump administration finally includes an Agriculture secretary. "The Senate easily approved Sonny Perdue on Monday" by a count of 87-11. Perdue enjoyed the support of Democrats like Delaware's Chris Coons and Wisconsin's Tammy Baldwin, both of whom spoke in his favor.