Newsweek’s Clift writes, “While it’s unlikely that the GOP will pick up all 10 seats needed to gain control of the Senate, what’s going on is reminiscent of” ‘80, “when the GOP won the Senate by knocking off a bunch of” Dem stalwarts. 6 years later, “many of the victors … would be turned out by the voters in what proved a short-lived majority.”
Winners rode Ronald Reagan’s coattails, “but the bulk of the winning class had no staying power. They were perfect for the moment, but, to put it gently, not all had the look of eagles.” Paula Hawkins (R-FL) and Jeremiah Denton (R-AL) “are remembered more for their personal eccentricities than any legislative achievement.” This year, “Exhibit A” is KY SEN nominee Rand Paul (R).
CT’s Linda McMahon (R) and NV’s Sharron Angle (R) and Sue Lowden all “seem just as unlikely to last on the national scene should they succeed” in Nov. Dems “should take heart. It could be six long years, but the tide that washes in some of these outliers will be there to carry them out, just as it has in elections past” (5/28).
“Any year there’s a huge anti-incumbent, populist tide, it’s bound to wash in its share of oddballs.” ‘94 gave us IN’s John Hostettler, who “tried boarding a DC-bound plane with a loaded 9-mm Glock in his carry-on”; TX’s Steve Stockman, who said Waco “was a government conspiracy”; and ID’s Helen Chenoweth, who “held endangered-sockeye-salmon fundraising bakes.”
OR’s Jim Bunn left his wife for his 31-year old CoS. IN’s Mark Souder just resigned over an affair with an aide. FL’s Mark Foley resigned in ‘06. And Rep. Steve LaTourette (R-OH) and Sen. John Ensign (R-NV) have each dealt with affairs (Senior, New York magazine, 5/30).
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The national polls, once again, tell very different stories: Clinton leads by just one point in the IBD, Rasmussen, and LA Times tracking polls, while she shows a commanding 12 point lead in the ABC news poll and a smaller but sizable five point lead in the CNN poll. The Republican Remington Research Group released a slew of polls showing Trump up in Ohio, Nevada, and North Carolina, a tie in Florida, and Clinton leads in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Virginia. However, an independent Siena poll shows Clinton up 7 in North Carolina, while a Monmouth poll shows Trump up one in Arizona
If you need a marker for how confident Hillary Clinton is at this point of the race, here's one: CNN's Jeff Zeleny reports "she's been talking to Republican senators, old allies and new, saying that she is willing to work with them and govern."
Sources tell CNN that longtime Democratic operative Ron Klain, who has been Vice President Biden's chief of staff, is "high on the list of prospects" to be chief of staff in a Clinton White House. "John Podesta, the campaign chairman, has signaled his interest in joining the Cabinet, perhaps as Energy secretary."