Welsh Air Force

National Journal
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Jan. 15, 2014, 10:49 a.m.

When you con­sider the re­gis­tra­tion ad­vant­age Dems en­joy in CA, and the re­cent trend­lines, GOP­ers look like they’re out of their minds in tar­get­ing sev­er­al mem­bers of the del­eg­a­tion. But they may have an ace up their sleeve, in at least one re­gion.

— We’ve seen stor­ies crop up all over the Cent­ral Val­ley re­cently re­gard­ing the tur­moil over Ag is­sues. But it hit home for us in a big way this week­end when Jim Costa (D-20) re­por­ted that his farm-rich CD has a 35-45% un­em­ploy­ment rate, and Dems are get­ting the blame for farm sub­sidies that are “dry­ing up” along with the wa­ter. That leads to the loss of jobs. Wa­ter, or a lack of it, is a huge con­cern in the re­gion, as en­viros and farm­ers fight over wa­ter rights for fish versus farm­ers. Reps. Jerry McNer­ney (D-11) and Den­nis Car­doza (D-18) face sim­il­ar prob­lems.

— On the sur­face, these are nearly im­possible CDs for GOP­ers to win: Pres. Obama car­ried these CDs with nearly 58% each in ‘08. But the GOP has re­cruited in­ter­est­ing can­did­ates against McNer­ney and Car­doza (Car­doza’s chal­lenger is an Ir­rig­a­tion Dis­trict dir.), and George W. Bush did win the CDs with a 51% av­er­age in ‘04. If the land­scape re­turns to its ‘04 levels here, the en­viro could be a dan­ger­ous one for these Cent­ral Val­ley Dems.