It’s easy for Democrats to get excited about Michelle Nunn (D): She raises a lot of money, has a last name famous in Georgia, and has had close to a year to build her campaign before the general election. But now that David Perdue (R) has (somewhat unexpectedly) won the Republican Party’s nomination for Senate, it’s time for a reality check. Is a Democrat really going to win in Georgia, and are they really going to do it in 2014? — Democrats haven’t won a Senate or gubernatorial race in Georgia since 2000, when Zell Miller claimed victory. The state’s changing demographics have nudged it toward competitiveness, but President Obama lost handily there in 2008 and 2012. We might soon talk about the Peach State as a presidential battleground, but it’s not quite there yet. — Consider, especially, that it’s a midterm year — when minority participation drops as a share of the electorate — in which Obama’s approval numbers are dismal. A poll commissioned by Democracy Corps and the Women’s Voices Women Vote Action Fund released Tuesday found that in a dozen presidential battlegrounds (including Georgia), the president stood at just 37 percent. — Republicans eyeing the race believe it will be competitive but are confident that Perdue will ultimately prevail. Their big, early general election spending has not yet come to Georgia: No major outside group like the Chamber of Commerce or American Crossroads targeted Nunn in TV ads during the two-month runoff, the perfect time, in theory, to soften her up before the fall. It’s a sign Republicans aren’t feeling threatened by her, at least not yet. Perdue, a former high-flying CEO who Rep. Jack Kingston (R) knocked for living in a gated community, will be vulnerable to the same playbook Democrats so effectively ran in 2012 against Mitt Romney, and it would be foolhardy to write this race off yet. But as this race reaches the general election, it’s hard to consider Nunn anything other than a clear-cut underdog.— Alex Roarty
What We're Following See More »
The national polls, once again, tell very different stories: Clinton leads by just one point in the IBD, Rasmussen, and LA Times tracking polls, while she shows a commanding 12 point lead in the ABC news poll and a smaller but sizable five point lead in the CNN poll. The Republican Remington Research Group released a slew of polls showing Trump up in Ohio, Nevada, and North Carolina, a tie in Florida, and Clinton leads in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Virginia. However, an independent Siena poll shows Clinton up 7 in North Carolina, while a Monmouth poll shows Trump up one in Arizona
If you need a marker for how confident Hillary Clinton is at this point of the race, here's one: CNN's Jeff Zeleny reports "she's been talking to Republican senators, old allies and new, saying that she is willing to work with them and govern."
Sources tell CNN that longtime Democratic operative Ron Klain, who has been Vice President Biden's chief of staff, is "high on the list of prospects" to be chief of staff in a Clinton White House. "John Podesta, the campaign chairman, has signaled his interest in joining the Cabinet, perhaps as Energy secretary."