The Hotline’s House Race Rankings: The 30 Districts Most Likely to Change Hands in November

Republicans are on offense in the House and will likely pick up seats in this election. But Democrats still have a few opportunities on the board, too.

Jack Fitzpatrick
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Jack Fitzpatrick
Oct. 8, 2014, 4:07 p.m.

Less than a month be­fore Elec­tion Day, dozens of House races are still in flux—but Demo­crat­ic in­cum­bents face far more coin tosses than Re­pub­lic­ans, mean­ing the GOP is likely to ex­pand its ma­jor­ity in the House of Rep­res­ent­at­ives this Novem­ber. Re­pub­lic­ans ex­pect mod­er­ate gains this cycle, us­ing a fa­vor­able polit­ic­al cli­mate to at­tack a slew of Demo­crat­ic fresh­men and add to their already sol­id ma­jor­ity. But few of those dis­tricts are ob­vi­ous wins: Demo­crat­ic in­cum­bents like Car­ol Shea-Port­er of New Hamp­shire, Ann Kirk­patrick of Ari­zona, and Bill En­yart of Illinois—among the most en­dangered Demo­crats on the bal­lot—still have roughly 50-50 shots at be­ing reelec­ted, ac­cord­ing to a sur­vey of strategists from both sides who are watch­ing and work­ing on these races.

Re­pub­lic­ans have a large num­ber of pickup op­por­tun­it­ies to choose from this year. Fif­teen of our 30 top races are dis­tricts where Re­pub­lic­an chal­lengers have le­git­im­ate shots at beat­ing Demo­crat­ic in­cum­bents. That’s in ad­di­tion to two safe bets for the GOP and nine oth­er open-seat races.

Demo­crats, mean­while, are on of­fense in a se­lect num­ber of dis­tricts, hop­ing to pick off sev­er­al seats where Re­pub­lic­an in­cum­bents have tripped over their own feet. In New York, Rep. Mi­chael Grimm’s fraud in­dict­ments dealt his reelec­tion pro­spects a heavy blow. In Flor­ida, Rep. Steve South­er­land’s gender-cent­ric gaffes may have ali­en­ated wo­men voters, mak­ing Gwen Gra­ham an even stronger chal­lenger—and Re­pub­lic­ans already knew the polit­ic­al scion was a threat. And in Neb­raska, Rep. Lee Terry’s re­fus­al to give up his own pay dur­ing last year’s gov­ern­ment shut­down con­tin­ues to be an an­chor on his reelec­tion hopes.

For Re­pub­lic­ans, the races that have fallen off the radar are just as im­port­ant as some of their pickup op­por­tun­it­ies. In­cum­bents like Rod­ney Dav­is, Dan Ben­ishek, Mike Fitzpatrick, Joe Heck, and Dav­id Valadao look sig­ni­fic­antly more safe than they did at the start of the elec­tion cycle or even a few months ago. That has al­lowed Re­pub­lic­ans to go on the of­fens­ive, spend­ing very little money on re­tain­ing seats.

While the Sen­ate and gubernat­ori­al races are awash in polling data right now, de­tailed, non­par­tis­an polls are hard to find in House races. These rat­ings are based partly on what polls are out there, but also on Na­tion­al Journ­al‘s cu­mu­lat­ive re­search and re­port­ing on these dis­tricts, in­clud­ing fin­an­cial in­form­a­tion, his­tor­ic­al data, and in­form­a­tion from the cam­paigns, party com­mit­tees, out­side groups, and act­iv­ists in­volved in these races.

These rank­ings fo­cus on which dis­tricts are most likely to flip from one party to an­oth­er, with the most likely sus­pects lis­ted at the top. That in­cludes sev­er­al races that are no longer con­sidered com­pet­it­ive, like Mia Love’s cam­paign in Utah. It does not in­clude com­pet­it­ive in­tra-party races like Rep. Mike Honda’s reelec­tion cam­paign in Cali­for­nia. With that, here is our list of the 30 House dis­tricts most likely to change hands this fall.

1. UT-04: Demo­crat­ic Rep. Jim Math­eson re­tir­ing. Re­pub­lic­an Mia Love, former may­or of Saratoga Springs, is the heavy fa­vor­ite to win in one of the most heav­ily Re­pub­lic­an-lean­ing dis­tricts cur­rently held by a Demo­crat. Mitt Rom­ney won 67 per­cent of the vote in this dis­trict in 2012 while Math­eson just squeaked by against Love; without the in­cum­bent Demo­crat on the tick­et, this is Love’s seat.

2. NC-07: Demo­crat­ic Rep. Mike McIntyre re­tir­ing. Re­pub­lic­an Dav­id Rouzer has a ma­jor ad­vant­age in an­oth­er con­ser­vat­ive dis­trict. Demo­crat Jonath­an Bar­field isn’t seen as a ser­i­ous con­tender in a dis­trict Rom­ney won by a 20-point mar­gin in 2012.

3. CA-31: Re­pub­lic­an Rep. Gary Miller re­tir­ing. Demo­crats should have beaten Miller two years ago, but a mass of Demo­crats in the dis­trict’s top-two primary led to a two-Re­pub­lic­an gen­er­al elec­tion after the pro­gress­ive vote split in the primary. Demo­crats faced a sim­il­ar scen­ario this cycle, but Red­lands May­or Pete Aguilar sur­vived the primary and is favored to beat Navy vet­er­an Paul Chabot.

4. NY-21: Demo­crat­ic Rep. Bill Owens re­tir­ing. Demo­crats have clearly lost con­fid­ence in their pro­spect­ive re­place­ment for Owens. The Demo­crat­ic Con­gres­sion­al Cam­paign Com­mit­tee pulled two weeks of air­time sup­port­ing doc­u­ment­ary film­maker Aaron Woolf. It doesn’t help that Green Party can­did­ate Matt Fu­ni­ci­ello could pull a sig­ni­fic­ant num­ber of votes from Woolf. Re­cent sur­veys have shown Re­pub­lic­an Elise Stefanik lead­ing Woolf and Fu­ni­ci­ello pick­ing up a healthy level of sup­port for a third-party can­did­ate.

5. IA-03: Re­pub­lic­an Rep. Tom Lath­am re­tir­ing. It hasn’t been a per­fect cam­paign for Demo­crat­ic former state Sen. Staci Ap­pel—her mis­steps on na­tion­al se­cur­ity in a de­bate gave Re­pub­lic­ans an easy tar­get in at­tack ads—but she still holds an edge over her Re­pub­lic­an op­pon­ent, former con­gres­sion­al aide Dav­id Young. Ap­pel holds a ma­jor fin­an­cial ad­vant­age over Young, who struggled to win the Re­pub­lic­an nom­in­a­tion while Ap­pel faced no primary com­pet­i­tion. A Demo­crat­ic poll showed Ap­pel with a 3-point lead in late Septem­ber, and a Lor­as Col­lege poll earli­er in Septem­ber showed her with a 6-point lead.

6. NH-01: Demo­crat­ic Rep. Car­ol Shea-Port­er run­ning for reelec­tion. Shea-Port­er looks like the most vul­ner­able in­cum­bent in the coun­try be­cause of a hos­tile polit­ic­al at­mo­sphere and a strong chal­lenger. Pub­lic polling between her and ex-Rep. Frank Guinta, the Re­pub­lic­an nom­in­ee, has been all over the map. Guinta beat Shea-Port­er soundly in 2010 and lost to her by a nar­row mar­gin in 2012. With lower turnout this year and a tough­er at­mo­sphere for Demo­crats, Guinta seems to have an edge in this quint­es­sen­tial swing dis­trict.

7. AZ-01: Demo­crat­ic Rep. Ann Kirk­patrick run­ning for reelec­tion. Kirk­patrick faces an even harsh­er polit­ic­al at­mo­sphere in a dis­trict where Re­pub­lic­ans are con­fid­ent that voters’ con­cerns over Obama­care and im­mig­ra­tion will drag down any Demo­crat. But she has a slight ad­vant­age in that her op­pon­ent, Re­pub­lic­an state House Speak­er Andy To­bin, struggled through his primary and has to earn the sup­port of tea parti­ers who pre­vi­ously op­posed him. Re­pub­lic­ans have re­leased two polls show­ing To­bin lead­ing. Demo­crats have poin­ted to the polls’ un­usu­ally low samples of Nat­ive Amer­ic­ans, who over­whelm­ingly sup­port Kirk­patrick, but they haven’t re­leased any polls of their own. Kirk­patrick has shown enough in­de­pend­ence and au­then­ti­city to earn The Ari­zona Re­pub­lic‘s en­dorse­ment, but this is still one of the top dis­tricts where Pres­id­ent Obama’s un­pop­ular­ity is an an­chor for any Demo­crat. After all, Obama didn’t carry it in either 2008 or 2012.

8. NY-11: Re­pub­lic­an Rep. Mi­chael Grimm run­ning for reelec­tion. The line of at­tack against Grimm is clear: He was in­dicted on 20 counts re­lat­ing to skimp­ing on payroll taxes while em­ploy­ing un­doc­u­mented im­mig­rants at his res­taur­ant. And he threatened to throw a re­port­er off a bal­cony and break him in half, “like a boy.” Some of that neg­at­ive press may not res­on­ate with some loy­al sup­port­ers, but it’s hard to see this race go­ing any­where but down­hill for Grimm. A mid-Septem­ber Demo­crat­ic poll shows Grimm tied with former New York City Coun­cil­man Domen­ic Rec­chia, and an earli­er Si­ena Col­lege poll showed Grimm with a 4-point lead.

9. IL-12: Demo­crat­ic Rep. Bill En­yart run­ning for reelec­tion. Like Kirk­patrick, En­yart isn’t par­tic­u­larly well-known, which may be what forced the DCCC, which usu­ally runs at­tack ads, to air pos­it­ive TV spots boost­ing En­yart this fall. En­yart faces a chal­lenge from high-pro­file Re­pub­lic­an state Rep. Mike Bost in a mod­er­ate-to-con­ser­vat­ive down­state dis­trict where Gov. Pat Quinn’s coat­tails, or lack there­of, aren’t much help. A mid-Septem­ber sur­vey by the Re­pub­lic­an-af­fil­i­ated Tar­rance Group showed Bost with a 4-point lead, but as with most House races, de­tailed data is tough to come by.

10. FL-02: Re­pub­lic­an Rep. Steve South­er­land run­ning for reelec­tion. South­er­land has dug him­self in­to a hole with wo­men voters, first hold­ing a men-only fun­draiser that dir­ec­ted at­tendees to “tell the Misses not to wait up,” and then re­spond­ing to ac­cus­a­tions of sex­ism by say­ing he lives with five wo­men and ask­ing if his op­pon­ent had “ever been to a linger­ie shower.” More im­port­antly, South­er­land faces at­tor­ney Gwen Gra­ham, the daugh­ter of pop­u­lar former Demo­crat­ic Sen. and Gov. Bob Gra­ham. Gra­ham may be Demo­crats’ top triple threat: She’s a pro­lif­ic fun­draiser, she has high name iden­ti­fic­a­tion, and she has no polit­ic­al re­cord that can be used against her—though that hasn’t stopped Re­pub­lic­ans from try­ing to tie her to Minor­ity Lead­er Nancy Pelosi.

11. NE-02: Re­pub­lic­an Rep. Lee Terry run­ning for reelec­tion. Last year’s gov­ern­ment shut­down hasn’t hurt any in­cum­bent as much as it’s hurt Terry, who re­fused to give up his pay dur­ing the shut­down be­cause, he said, he had “a nice house and a kid in col­lege.” This wasn’t seen as a top-tier race earli­er this cycle, but Demo­crat­ic state Sen. Brad Ash­ford has kept the fo­cus on con­gres­sion­al pay and perks, call­ing for a 10 per­cent con­gres­sion­al pay cut—which Terry un­wisely sided against.

12. WV-03: Demo­crat­ic Rep. Nick Ra­hall run­ning for reelec­tion. Ra­hall is swim­ming against a strong polit­ic­al cur­rent. Rom­ney won his dis­trict with 65 per­cent of the vote in 2012, and the En­vir­on­ment­al Pro­tec­tion Agency’s pro­pos­al to lim­it car­bon emis­sions has led this race to fo­cus heav­ily on Obama’s “war on coal.” But he has held this seat since 1977 and is fa­mil­i­ar to voters. He’s also suc­cess­fully pushed back against ads by Amer­ic­ans for Prosper­ity, ty­ing his op­pon­ent, state Sen. Evan Jen­kins, to “out-of-state bil­lion­aires from New York City.” Still, his levels of sup­port have fallen in re­cent elec­tions, and Re­pub­lic­ans re­main op­tim­ist­ic they can tip him be­low a win­ning mar­gin this year.

13. GA-12: Demo­crat­ic Rep. John Bar­row run­ning for reelec­tion. Bar­row is in the same boat as Ra­hall. They both rep­res­ent dis­tricts that heav­ily fa­vor Re­pub­lic­ans, but also have strong repu­ta­tions in­di­vidu­ally, and Bar­row is a par­tic­u­larly good cam­paign­er and per­former in TV ads like this one. Like Ra­hall, Bar­row touts his en­dorse­ment from the Na­tion­al Rifle As­so­ci­ation. Con­struc­tion-com­pany own­er Rick Al­len could beat Bar­row, but the bur­den is on him to un­seat a well-known in­cum­bent.

14. IL-10: Demo­crat­ic Rep. Brad Schneider run­ning for reelec­tion. Schneider isn’t in as bad shape as fel­low Illinois Demo­crat En­yart, but he faces a chal­lenge from former Rep. Bob Dold, and has been tar­geted by the U.S. Cham­ber of Com­merce and Cross­roads GPS. Schneider was one of four in­cum­bents whom the DCCC bought more air­time to sup­port this week.

15. AZ-02: Demo­crat­ic Rep. Ron Barber run­ning for reelec­tion. Barber faces one of the top Re­pub­lic­an chal­lengers in the coun­try: re­tired Air Force fight­er pi­lot Martha Mc­Sally, whom he beat by only about 2,500 votes in 2012. But Barber, who re­placed Gab­ri­elle Gif­fords in the House two years ago, has also played his cards right, tout­ing his in­de­pend­ence from party polit­ics and sup­port for tough­er bor­der se­cur­ity. Pub­lic polling has been scarce; a June poll con­duc­ted for Demo­crats’ House Ma­jor­ity PAC showed Barber with an 8-point lead. The race is still widely viewed as a toss-up.

16. FL-26: Demo­crat­ic Rep. Joe Gar­cia run­ning for reelec­tion. Gar­cia also faces a prized Re­pub­lic­an re­cruit in Miami-Dade County School Board mem­ber Car­los Cur­belo. The Na­tion­al Re­pub­lic­an Con­gres­sion­al Com­mit­tee has run re­peated ads on Gar­cia’s eth­ics is­sues—his former cam­paign man­ager pleaded guilty to ab­sent­ee-bal­lot fraud. But Cur­belo has suffered from some bad press, too: He was re­cently cap­tured on cam­era call­ing So­cial Se­cur­ity a “Ponzi scheme” while talk­ing to a group of Col­lege Re­pub­lic­ans. An early Septem­ber in­tern­al poll for Cur­belo showed him with a 4-point lead. The next couple weeks will show us wheth­er Cur­belo’s poll was on the money or op­tim­ist­ic—and wheth­er his com­ments have af­fected the race.

17. CA-52: Demo­crat­ic Rep. Scott Peters run­ning for reelec­tion. Peters and former San Diego City Coun­cil­man Carl De­Maio ap­pear dead­locked. Polling in the dis­trict, much of it from the auto­mated firm Sur­vey­USA, has bounced around. And the DCCC and NR­CC have spent roughly the same amount on the race so far. Both can­did­ates hope to neg­at­ively define each oth­er, with Peters ty­ing De­Maio to the tea party and De­Maio blam­ing Peters for San Diego’s pen­sion crisis.

18. CO-06: Re­pub­lic­an Rep. Mike Coff­man run­ning for reelec­tion. Coff­man rep­res­ents a nearly 20 per­cent Latino dis­trict that Obama won by a 5-point mar­gin in 2012, and his op­pon­ent, former state House Speak­er An­drew Ro­man­off, has proved to be a strong fun­draiser. But Coff­man has be­ne­fit­ted from more out­side spend­ing, and hasn’t made any ma­jor mis­takes on the cam­paign trail like South­er­land or Terry (or the 2012 vin­tage of Coff­man, for that mat­ter).

19. CA-07: Demo­crat­ic Rep. Ami Be­ra run­ning for reelec­tion. Be­ra ap­pears to have about a 50-50 chance at reelec­tion over Re­pub­lic­an former Rep. Doug Ose. Last month, a Demo­crat­ic poll showed Be­ra with a 4-point lead, and a Re­pub­lic­an poll showed Ose with a 4-point lead. The dis­trict leans slightly Demo­crat­ic, but both polls showed Obama’s ap­prov­al rat­ing un­der­wa­ter.

20. AR-02: Re­pub­lic­an Rep. Tim Griffin re­tir­ing. Demo­crats hope this could be their biggest sur­prise pickup. The dis­trict is con­ser­vat­ive, but Demo­crat Patrick Henry Hays, the former may­or of North Little Rock, has been on the air­waves to tout his work at­tract­ing loc­al jobs and bal­an­cing the town’s budget. And the DCCC has ag­gress­ively gone after “mil­lion­aire banker” French Hill. An in­tern­al poll showed Hays hold­ing a 3-point edge over Hill, per­haps ex­plain­ing why the DCCC re­cently re­in­forced its ad buy here.

21. VA-10: Re­pub­lic­an Rep. Frank Wolf re­tir­ing. Re­pub­lic­an state Del. Bar­bara Com­stock, who used to work for Wolf, hopes to run on his leg­acy—Wolf even ap­peared in her first TV ad. But the in­creas­ingly di­verse (and in­creas­ingly blue) dis­trict is in play for Fair­fax County Su­per­visor John Foust. Per­haps the biggest bar­ri­er to Demo­crats flip­ping this seat: Foust ac­cused Com­stock, who has mostly worked in polit­ics, of nev­er hav­ing “a real job,” which Re­pub­lic­ans called sex­ist. If Foust fails to hold an ad­vant­age among wo­men voters, this could be a wasted op­por­tun­ity for Demo­crats.

22. MN-08: Demo­crat­ic Rep. Rick No­lan run­ning for reelec­tion. Stew­art Mills, “the Brad Pitt of the Re­pub­lic­an Party,” turned No­lan’s reelec­tion bid in­to a toss-up des­pite Demo­crats’ slight re­gis­tra­tion ad­vant­age in the dis­trict. No­lan also seemed to run a leth­ar­gic cam­paign—al­though his re­cent an­nounce­ment that he raised an im­press­ive $641,000 in the third quarter of the year looks like a good sign.

23. MA-06: Demo­crat­ic Rep. John Tier­ney lost primary. Demo­crats have a bet­ter chance at hold­ing this seat now that Mar­ine Corps vet­er­an Seth Moulton is their can­did­ate in­stead of Tier­ney, whose fam­ily’s rack­et­eer­ing con­vic­tions would have been a bur­den. Re­pub­lic­an former state Sen. Richard Ti­sei nearly beat Tier­ney in 2012. He’s still a con­tender this cycle, but he has less to run against, though Moulton has to re­plen­ish his cam­paign cash quickly after the Septem­ber primary.

24. WV-02: Re­pub­lic­an Rep. Shel­ley Moore Capito run­ning for Sen­ate. The open-seat race may be Demo­crats’ most am­bi­tious le­git­im­ate at­tempt at flip­ping a seat. Like West Vir­gin­ia’s 3rd Dis­trict, this is a con­ser­vat­ive area where Obama is un­pop­u­lar. But Demo­crats hope that Re­pub­lic­an Alex Mooney, who lived in Mary­land and con­sidered a con­gres­sion­al run there be­fore mov­ing across the bor­der, fails to con­nect with voters who see him as a car­pet­bag­ger. Nick Ca­sey, the former chair­man of the West Vir­gin­ia Demo­crat­ic Party, has struck a bi­par­tis­an tone in the hopes of win­ning over in­de­pend­ents and Re­pub­lic­ans who want a loc­al to rep­res­ent them.

25. NY-01: Demo­crat­ic Rep. Tim Bish­op run­ning for reelec­tion. Bish­op faces a tough reelec­tion bid partly be­cause of al­leg­a­tions that he asked for a cam­paign con­tri­bu­tion after help­ing a con­stitu­ent get a per­mit. The NR­CC has run TV ads call­ing Bish­op “cor­rupt and proud of it.” But a Si­ena Col­lege poll last month had Bish­op lead­ing Re­pub­lic­an state Sen. Lee Zeld­in by 10 points.

26. ME-02: Demo­crat­ic Rep. Mike Michaud run­ning for gov­ernor. This dis­trict leans left, but Michaud’s gubernat­ori­al run has left the seat open and giv­en Re­pub­lic­ans hope at an up­set. Re­pub­lic­an former state treas­urer Bruce Poli­quin led a small Uni­versity of New Hamp­shire poll by 10 points, but he is still seen as an un­der­dog to Demo­crat­ic state Sen. Emily Cain, who has a col­lec­tion of ma­jor Demo­crat­ic groups back­ing her up.

27. CA-26: Demo­crat­ic Rep. Ju­lia Brown­ley run­ning for reelec­tion. Brown­ley’s dis­trict also fa­vors Demo­crats, but Demo­crats have ac­know­ledged that state As­sembly­man Jeff Gorell is keep­ing the race close, and the Con­gres­sion­al Lead­er­ship Fund is spend­ing $500,000 to sup­port Gorell. This Ven­tura County-based dis­trict is chan­ging quickly, and Re­pub­lic­ans may not get an­oth­er good shot at it for a while if Gorell can’t beat Brown­ley this year.

28. NJ-03: Re­pub­lic­an Rep. Jon Run­yan re­tir­ing. After Run­yan an­nounced his re­tire­ment, this mod­er­ate dis­trict was a top tar­get for Demo­crats. But when wealthy, cen­ter-right Re­pub­lic­an Tom Ma­cAr­thur won the nom­in­a­tion over Steve Loneg­an, the race turned slightly in Re­pub­lic­ans’ fa­vor. Demo­crat Aimee Bel­gard, a Bur­l­ing­ton County Free­hold­er, still could win—a Septem­ber poll showed her and Ma­cAr­thur ex­actly tied at 42 per­cent each—but the self-fund­ing Ma­cAr­thur has a sig­ni­fic­ant fin­an­cial ad­vant­age.

29. NY-24: Demo­crat­ic Rep. Dan Maf­fei run­ning for reelec­tion. Maf­fei, who lost his seat in 2010, isn’t safe, but he has an edge over at­tor­ney John Katko. Maf­fei led a Si­ena Col­lege poll by 8 points last month, and he had a more than $1 mil­lion cash ad­vant­age over Katko as of Ju­ly. Still, Maf­fei’s .500 re­cord in past House races isn’t set­tling Demo­crat­ic nerves.

30. MN-07: Demo­crat­ic Rep. Col­lin Peterson run­ning for reelec­tion. Peterson has rep­res­en­ted his con­ser­vat­ive-trend­ing dis­trict since 1991, but Re­pub­lic­ans are high on state Sen. Tor­rey Westrom, who has a com­pel­ling per­son­al story. Both Demo­crats and Re­pub­lic­ans have re­leased polls show­ing Peterson with a lead, but the NR­CC has spent nearly $3 mil­lion on air­time in the dis­trict to try and change that, while Demo­crats in­sist Peterson’s per­son­al brand can with­stand any­thing they throw at him.

Hon­or­able men­tions: In TX-23, Demo­crat­ic Rep. Pete Gal­lego is re­l­at­ively pop­u­lar but faces a chal­lenge from former CIA agent Will Hurd in an evenly split dis­trict. In NY-18, Demo­crat­ic Rep. Sean Patrick Malo­ney faces a chal­lenge from former Rep. Nan Hay­worth. In CT-05, Demo­crat­ic Rep. Eliza­beth Esty faces a chal­lenge from busi­ness­man Mark Green­berg. In CA-21, Re­pub­lic­an Rep. Dav­id Valadao faces Aman­da Renter­ia, the first Lat­ina chief of staff in Sen­ate his­tory, in a ma­jor­ity-Latino dis­trict. In AR-04, Demo­crats hope James Lee Witt, who served as FEMA dir­ect­or un­der Pres­id­ent Clin­ton, can over­come the dis­trict’s con­ser­vat­ive lean­ings in an open-seat race. In MI-01, Re­pub­lic­an Rep. Dan Ben­ishek faces a chal­lenge from Army vet­er­an Jerry Can­non. In IL-13, Re­pub­lic­an Rep. Rod­ney Dav­is seems to have pulled away from highly touted Demo­crat­ic chal­lenger Ann Cal­lis, a former county judge. In NY-23, Demo­crat­ic Tomp­kins County Le­gis­lat­or Martha Robertson is chal­len­ging Re­pub­lic­an Rep. Tom Reed. In HI-01, Demo­crat­ic state Rep. Mark Takai is con­sidered the fa­vor­ite over Re­pub­lic­an Charles Djou, who briefly served in Con­gress after win­ning a spe­cial elec­tion in 2010.

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