Poll: If Reid Doesn’t Return as Head of Senate Democrats, Who Will Replace Him?

WASHINGTON, DC - JANUARY 07: Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) speaks to reporters after attending the weekly Democrat policy luncheon at the U.S. Capitol on January 7, 2014 in Washington, DC. Senate Democrats gathered at a luncheon to discuss various issues inlcluding minimum wage and unemployment insurance.
National Journal
Michael Catalini, Sarah Mimms and Peter Bell
Michael Catalini Sarah Mimms Peter Bell
May 8, 2014, 5 p.m.

If Re­id does not re­turn as lead­er, who is most likely to suc­ceed him in the caucus?

DEMO­CRATS (86 VOTES)

Dick Durbin: 21%
Chuck Schu­mer: 53%
Patty Mur­ray: 22%
Debbie Stabenow: 4%

Dick Durbin

“He is good on cam­era, breaks through par­tis­an polit­ics, and is smart as hell.”

“Durbin should have the in­side track, but I would not un­der­es­tim­ate Schu­mer.”

“Dick Durbin is ar­tic­u­late and an ex­cel­lent com­mu­nic­at­or. But it could be Patty Mur­ray.”

Chuck Schu­mer

” ‘Most likely’ is Schu­mer. ‘Ought to’ is Durbin, but a change is bet­ter than more of the same.”

“He’s the best le­gis­lat­or since LBJ, who also was known to be a bit blustery and to get up in oth­er people’s busi­ness.”

“Durbin has ceded the field to Schu­mer.”

“He’s our best five-tool play­er. Money, mes­sage, polit­ics, policy, loy­alty; and he helped elect more than half the caucus.”

“Chuck has been work­ing to­ward this for sev­er­al years. Patty would be in­ter­est­ing.”

“I don’t think it is much of a race.”

“Lots of sen­at­ors owe him.”

“Sen­ate Demo­crats would be look­ing for a fight­er, not a man­ager.”

Patty Mur­ray

“She can bring new en­ergy to the battle and can bridge the battle lines between Durbin and Schu­mer.”

“A wo­man would be good. And we need the Shoe man to keep up the fun­drais­ing.”

“She has the right bal­ance of policy and polit­ics. Can she muster the votes?”

If Re­id does not re­turn as lead­er, who is most likely to suc­ceed him in the caucus?

RE­PUB­LIC­ANS (93 VOTES)

Dick Durbin: 17%
Chuck Schu­mer: 71%
Patty Mur­ray: 12%
Debbie Stabenow: 0%

Dick Durbin

“Schu­mer is cap­able, but Durbin is first in line.”

“He still car­ries a big stick, but it is more con­cealed.”

“Lord, just read­ing this list of ‘al­tern­at­ives’ is enough to keep you up at night.”

Chuck Schu­mer

“He is their best deal-maker.”

“Schu­mer is trans­ac­tion­al, like Ted Kennedy was.”

“He’s the one with the best mi­cro­phone shtick. They’ll need that.”

“He raises money, ex­cites the base, and cuts deals. The fact he is an ego­ma­ni­ac is not suf­fi­cient for him not to win.”

“Con­ser­vat­ive Re­pub­lic­ans can­not tell Mur­ray, Durbin, and Schu­mer apart, so as Hil­lary Clin­ton says: ‘What dif­fer­ence does it really make?’ “

“A clas­sic Belt­way cut­throat.”

“He has been sharpen­ing his knives for a long time, and the Demo­crat Party will need a really mean and nasty knife-throw­er.”

“Schu­mer is a ma­chine. He’ll lock it down if Re­id doesn’t re­turn.”

“Who’s gonna tell him no?”

Patty Mur­ray

“Less ab­ras­ive than Durbin and Schu­mer, more seasoned than Stabenow.”

“You don’t dump Re­id for Re­id-Lite.”

“The Sen­ate Demo­crat­ic wo­men will stage a coup and put Mur­ray in charge.”

… … … . .

Demo­crat­ic Polit­ic­al In­siders Jill Alp­er, John An­za­lone, Brad Ban­non, Dave Beat­tie, Andy Bech­hoe­fer, Cor­nell Belch­er, Matt Ben­nett, Mitchell W. Ber­ger, Mike Ber­man, Stephanie Bosh, Paul Brath­waite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brew­er, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Bon­nie Camp­bell, Bill Car­rick, Guy Cecil, Mar­tin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Larry Co­hen, Jerry Craw­ford, Brendan Daly, Jeff Daniel­son, Peter Daou, Howard Dean, Scott De­Fife, Jim De­mers, Tad Dev­ine, Dav­id Di Mar­tino, Debbie Din­gell, Mon­ica Dix­on, Patrick Dor­ton, Pat Du­jakovich, An­ita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve El­men­d­orf, Carter Eskew, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Fer­son, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Fo­ley, Jef­frey For­bes, Vin­cent Fril­lici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Mi­chael Gonza­lez, Joe Grand­mais­on, Anna Green­berg, Stan Green­berg, Pat Griffin, Larry Griso­lano, Mi­chael Gron­stal, Lisa Grove, Mar­cia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Dick Har­poot­li­an, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Doug Hat­t­away, Mike Henry, Kar­en Hicks, Leo Hindery Jr., Har­old Ickes, Mar­cus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jard­ing, Jona­thon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kauf­man, Lisa Koun­toupes, Celinda Lake, Dav­id Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Le­hane, Jeff Link, Bob Malo­ney, Jim Man­ley, Steve Marchand, Jim Mar­gol­is, Paul Maslin, Keith Ma­son, Susan Mc­Cue, Ger­ald McEntee, Steve McMa­hon, Tom McMa­hon, Phil Mc­Namara, Dav­id Med­ina, Mi­chael Mee­han, Mark Mell­man, John Mer­rigan, Mi­chael Mon­roe, Steve Murphy, Janet Na­pol­it­ano, Dav­id Nas­sar, Mar­cia Nich­ols, John Nor­ris, Tom Ochs, Tom O’Don­nell, Jef­frey Peck, De­bora Pig­na­telli, Tony Podesta, Je­frey Pol­lock, Jack Quinn, Larry Rasky, Mame Re­iley, Ed Rendell, Steve Ric­chetti, Will Robin­son, Steve Rosenth­al, Dav­id Rudd, Ry­an Rudom­in­er, John Ry­an, Mi­chael Sar­geant, Stephanie Schriock, Terry Shu­maker, Sean Sin­clair, Phil Sing­er, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Greg Speed, Darry Sragow, Ken Strasma, Doug Thor­nell, Jef­frey Tram­mell, Ed Tur­l­ing­ton, Rick Wien­er, James Wil­li­ams, JoDee Win­ter­hof, Bri­an Wolff, Jon Young­dahl, and Jim Zo­gby.

GOP Polit­ic­al In­siders Dan Al­len, Stan An­der­son, Gary An­dres, Saul­i­us (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bain­wol, Bri­an Baker, Gary Bauer, Dav­id Beck­with, Paul Ben­necke, Clark Ben­son, Wayne Ber­man, Bri­an Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Bla­lock, Car­mine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bon­jean, Jeff Bu­ley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Al Carde­n­as, Danny Car­roll, Alex Cas­tel­lanos, Ron Christie, Jim Cic­coni, Jonath­an Col­le­gio, Rob Collins, Cesar Conda, Jake Cor­man, Scott Cot­ting­ton, Jay Cran­ford, Greg Crist, Di­ane Crookham-John­son, Fer­gus Cul­len, Tom Dav­is, Mike Den­nehy, Ken Duber­stein, Debi Durham, Sara Fa­gen, Frank Fahren­kopf, John Fee­hery, Don Fierce, Mindy Finn, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Bruce A. Gates, Sam Geduldig, Adam Geller, Ben­jamin Gins­berg, Dav­id Gir­ard-di­Carlo, Bill Green­er, Jonath­an Grella, Lanny Grif­fith, Janet Mullins Gris­som, Doug Gross, Todd Har­ris, Steve Hart, Chris­toph­er Healy, Ral­ph Hell­mann, Chris Hen­ick, Terry Holt, Dav­id Ian­nel­li, Ed Ingle, Jim In­no­cenzi, Clark Judge, Dav­id Keat­ing, Dav­id Ken­sing­er, Bob Kjel­lander, Ed Kut­ler, Chris La­Civ­ita, Jim Lake, Steven Law, Steve Lom­bardo, Kev­in Mad­den, Joel Maiola, Gary Malo­ney, Dav­id Mar­in, Mary Matal­in, Dan Mat­toon, Bri­an Mc­Cor­mack, Mark McKin­non, Kyle Mc­Slar­row, Ken Mehl­man, Jim Mer­rill, Lisa Cam­ooso Miller, Tim Mor­ris­on, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nel­son, Neil Ne­w­house, Dav­id Nor­cross, Zi­ad Ojakli, Jack Oliv­er, Todd Olsen, Kev­in O’Neill, Con­nie Par­toy­an, Billy Piper, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, Dav­id Rehr, Tom Reyn­olds, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, Dav­id Roeder­er, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, An­drew Shore, Kev­in Shuvalov, Don Sipple, Ken Spain, Fred Steep­er, Bob Steven­son, Terry Sul­li­van, Dav­id Tamasi, Eric Tan­en­blatt, Richard Temple, Heath Thompson, Jay Tim­mons, War­ren Tomp­kins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Don­gen, Jan van Lo­huizen, Stew­art Ver­dery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Lezlee West­ine, Dave Win­ston, Ginny Wolfe, Fred Wszolek, and Mat­thew Zablud.

If Reid does not return as leader, who is most likely to succeed him in the caucus?

DEMO­CRATS (86 VOTES)

Dick Durbin: 21%
Chuck Schu­mer: 53%
Patty Mur­ray: 22%
Debbie Stabenow: 4%

Dick Durbin

“He is good on cam­era, breaks through par­tis­an polit­ics, and is smart as hell.”

“Durbin should have the in­side track, but I would not un­der­es­tim­ate Schu­mer.”

“Dick Durbin is ar­tic­u­late and an ex­cel­lent com­mu­nic­at­or. But it could be Patty Mur­ray.”

Chuck Schu­mer

” ‘Most likely’ is Schu­mer. ‘Ought to’ is Durbin, but a change is bet­ter than more of the same.”

“He’s the best le­gis­lat­or since LBJ, who also was known to be a bit blustery and to get up in oth­er people’s busi­ness.”

“Durbin has ceded the field to Schu­mer.”

“He’s our best five-tool play­er. Money, mes­sage, polit­ics, policy, loy­alty; and he helped elect more than half the caucus.”

“Chuck has been work­ing to­ward this for sev­er­al years. Patty would be in­ter­est­ing.”

“I don’t think it is much of a race.”

“Lots of sen­at­ors owe him.”

“Sen­ate Demo­crats would be look­ing for a fight­er, not a man­ager.”

Patty Mur­ray

“She can bring new en­ergy to the battle and can bridge the battle lines between Durbin and Schu­mer.”

“A wo­man would be good. And we need the Shoe man to keep up the fun­drais­ing.”

“She has the right bal­ance of policy and polit­ics. Can she muster the votes?”

If Reid does not return as leader, who is most likely to succeed him in the caucus?

RE­PUB­LIC­ANS (93 VOTES)

Dick Durbin: 17%
Chuck Schu­mer: 71%
Patty Mur­ray: 12%
Debbie Stabenow: 0%

Dick Durbin

“Schu­mer is cap­able, but Durbin is first in line.”

“He still car­ries a big stick, but it is more con­cealed.”

“Lord, just read­ing this list of ‘al­tern­at­ives’ is enough to keep you up at night.”

Chuck Schu­mer

“He is their best deal-maker.”

“Schu­mer is trans­ac­tion­al, like Ted Kennedy was.”

“He’s the one with the best mi­cro­phone shtick. They’ll need that.”

“He raises money, ex­cites the base, and cuts deals. The fact he is an ego­ma­ni­ac is not suf­fi­cient for him not to win.”

“Con­ser­vat­ive Re­pub­lic­ans can­not tell Mur­ray, Durbin, and Schu­mer apart, so as Hil­lary Clin­ton says: ‘What dif­fer­ence does it really make?’ “

“A clas­sic Belt­way cut­throat.”

“He has been sharpen­ing his knives for a long time, and the Demo­crat Party will need a really mean and nasty knife-throw­er.”

“Schu­mer is a ma­chine. He’ll lock it down if Re­id doesn’t re­turn.”

“Who’s gonna tell him no?”

Patty Mur­ray

“Less ab­ras­ive than Durbin and Schu­mer, more seasoned than Stabenow.”

“You don’t dump Re­id for Re­id-Lite.”

“The Sen­ate Demo­crat­ic wo­men will stage a coup and put Mur­ray in charge.”

… … … . .

Demo­crat­ic Polit­ic­al In­siders Jill Alp­er, John An­za­lone, Brad Ban­non, Dave Beat­tie, Andy Bech­hoe­fer, Cor­nell Belch­er, Matt Ben­nett, Mitchell W. Ber­ger, Mike Ber­man, Stephanie Bosh, Paul Brath­waite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brew­er, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Bon­nie Camp­bell, Bill Car­rick, Guy Cecil, Mar­tin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Larry Co­hen, Jerry Craw­ford, Brendan Daly, Jeff Daniel­son, Peter Daou, Howard Dean, Scott De­Fife, Jim De­mers, Tad Dev­ine, Dav­id Di Mar­tino, Debbie Din­gell, Mon­ica Dix­on, Patrick Dor­ton, Pat Du­jakovich, An­ita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve El­men­d­orf, Carter Eskew, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Fer­son, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Fo­ley, Jef­frey For­bes, Vin­cent Fril­lici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Mi­chael Gonza­lez, Joe Grand­mais­on, Anna Green­berg, Stan Green­berg, Pat Griffin, Larry Griso­lano, Mi­chael Gron­stal, Lisa Grove, Mar­cia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Dick Har­poot­li­an, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Doug Hat­t­away, Mike Henry, Kar­en Hicks, Leo Hindery Jr., Har­old Ickes, Mar­cus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jard­ing, Jona­thon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kauf­man, Lisa Koun­toupes, Celinda Lake, Dav­id Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Le­hane, Jeff Link, Bob Malo­ney, Jim Man­ley, Steve Marchand, Jim Mar­gol­is, Paul Maslin, Keith Ma­son, Susan Mc­Cue, Ger­ald McEntee, Steve McMa­hon, Tom McMa­hon, Phil Mc­Namara, Dav­id Med­ina, Mi­chael Mee­han, Mark Mell­man, John Mer­rigan, Mi­chael Mon­roe, Steve Murphy, Janet Na­pol­it­ano, Dav­id Nas­sar, Mar­cia Nich­ols, John Nor­ris, Tom Ochs, Tom O’Don­nell, Jef­frey Peck, De­bora Pig­na­telli, Tony Podesta, Je­frey Pol­lock, Jack Quinn, Larry Rasky, Mame Re­iley, Ed Rendell, Steve Ric­chetti, Will Robin­son, Steve Rosenth­al, Dav­id Rudd, Ry­an Rudom­in­er, John Ry­an, Mi­chael Sar­geant, Stephanie Schriock, Terry Shu­maker, Sean Sin­clair, Phil Sing­er, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Greg Speed, Darry Sragow, Ken Strasma, Doug Thor­nell, Jef­frey Tram­mell, Ed Tur­l­ing­ton, Rick Wien­er, James Wil­li­ams, JoDee Win­ter­hof, Bri­an Wolff, Jon Young­dahl, and Jim Zo­gby.

GOP Polit­ic­al In­siders Dan Al­len, Stan An­der­son, Gary An­dres, Saul­i­us (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bain­wol, Bri­an Baker, Gary Bauer, Dav­id Beck­with, Paul Ben­necke, Clark Ben­son, Wayne Ber­man, Bri­an Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Bla­lock, Car­mine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bon­jean, Jeff Bu­ley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Al Carde­n­as, Danny Car­roll, Alex Cas­tel­lanos, Ron Christie, Jim Cic­coni, Jonath­an Col­le­gio, Rob Collins, Cesar Conda, Jake Cor­man, Scott Cot­ting­ton, Jay Cran­ford, Greg Crist, Di­ane Crookham-John­son, Fer­gus Cul­len, Tom Dav­is, Mike Den­nehy, Ken Duber­stein, Debi Durham, Sara Fa­gen, Frank Fahren­kopf, John Fee­hery, Don Fierce, Mindy Finn, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Bruce A. Gates, Sam Geduldig, Adam Geller, Ben­jamin Gins­berg, Dav­id Gir­ard-di­Carlo, Bill Green­er, Jonath­an Grella, Lanny Grif­fith, Janet Mullins Gris­som, Doug Gross, Todd Har­ris, Steve Hart, Chris­toph­er Healy, Ral­ph Hell­mann, Chris Hen­ick, Terry Holt, Dav­id Ian­nel­li, Ed Ingle, Jim In­no­cenzi, Clark Judge, Dav­id Keat­ing, Dav­id Ken­sing­er, Bob Kjel­lander, Ed Kut­ler, Chris La­Civ­ita, Jim Lake, Steven Law, Steve Lom­bardo, Kev­in Mad­den, Joel Maiola, Gary Malo­ney, Dav­id Mar­in, Mary Matal­in, Dan Mat­toon, Bri­an Mc­Cor­mack, Mark McKin­non, Kyle Mc­Slar­row, Ken Mehl­man, Jim Mer­rill, Lisa Cam­ooso Miller, Tim Mor­ris­on, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nel­son, Neil Ne­w­house, Dav­id Nor­cross, Zi­ad Ojakli, Jack Oliv­er, Todd Olsen, Kev­in O’Neill, Con­nie Par­toy­an, Billy Piper, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, Dav­id Rehr, Tom Reyn­olds, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, Dav­id Roeder­er, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, An­drew Shore, Kev­in Shuvalov, Don Sipple, Ken Spain, Fred Steep­er, Bob Steven­son, Terry Sul­li­van, Dav­id Tamasi, Eric Tan­en­blatt, Richard Temple, Heath Thompson, Jay Tim­mons, War­ren Tomp­kins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Don­gen, Jan van Lo­huizen, Stew­art Ver­dery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Lezlee West­ine, Dave Win­ston, Ginny Wolfe, Fred Wszolek, and Mat­thew Zablud.

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