Political Insiders Poll

Poll: If the Midterm Elections Were Held Today, Who Would Win?

Michael Catalini, Alex Roarty and Peter Bell
Michael Catalini Alex Roarty Peter Bell
Dec. 5, 2013, 4 p.m.

If the midterm elec­tion were held today, what would be the most likely res­ult?

DEMO­CRATS (99 VOTES)

Status quo: 72%
Demo­crats take the House and keep the Sen­ate: 6%
GOP takes the Sen­ate and keeps the House: 21%
Demo­crats take the House, GOP takes the Sen­ate: 1%

Status quo

“It will be two more years of pain for the Obama ad­min­is­tra­tion.”

“People hate Con­gress but love their rep­res­ent­at­ives.”

“Not­with­stand­ing the Obama­care de­bacle, the demo­graph­ics are still too strong for a shift in either cham­ber.”

“This is all spec­u­la­tion un­til we see how Obama­care works out some time around March.”

“Smal­ler mar­gins in both houses, but so far nobody has made a clear case for change.”

“No tsuna­mis have hit yet.”

“Right now, status quo rules the day.”

Demo­crats take the House and keep the Sen­ate

“The pub­lic un­der­stands that you are either part of the prob­lem or part of the solu­tion. Re­pub­lic­ans are clearly part of the prob­lem with Obama­care.”

GOP takes the Sen­ate and keeps the House

“If it were today, the pun­ish­ment of Obama would lose D’s the Sen­ate, but there is a world of time left.”

“Obama has to make the case and give his can­did­ates cov­er. He is not do­ing that.”

“Sen­ate Dems are down right now but on the way back as the pub­lic grows tired of Obama­care-bash­ing.”

Demo­crats take the House, GOP takes the Sen­ate

“The pent-up an­ger and frus­tra­tion with D.C. is a dark cloud hanging over Cap­it­ol Hill. If the weath­er doesn’t clear up, my fore­cast is a big storm next Novem­ber that will blow away House Re­pub­lic­ans and Sen­ate Demo­crats.”

If the midterm elec­tion were held today, what would be the most likely res­ult?

RE­PUB­LIC­ANS (93 VOTES)

Status quo: 42%
Demo­crats take the House and keep the Sen­ate: 0%
GOP takes the Sen­ate and keeps the House: 58%
Demo­crats take the House, GOP takes the Sen­ate: 0%

Status quo

“Re­pub­lic­ans have a chance to take the Sen­ate, but they’re cer­tainly not there yet.”

“R’s will gain in both houses, but fall short of Sen­ate con­trol.”

“If the elec­tion were held today, Re­pub­lic­ans would re­tain the House (with a slightly re­duced ma­jor­ity) and gain sev­er­al Sen­ate seats, but not enough for a ma­jor­ity.”

“Both parties (Re­pub­lic­ans in par­tic­u­lar) are ad­ept at snatch­ing de­feat from the jaws of vic­tory. Mis­souri and In­di­ana from 2012 come to mind as far as the Sen­ate is con­cerned.”

“Re­pub­lic­ans pick up four, pos­sibly five, seats in the Sen­ate but can’t get the sixth they need.”

GOP takes the Sen­ate and keeps the House

“The wave is build­ing. Get ready.”

“The Demo­crats are hem­or­rhaging.”

“The play­ing field is break­ing way open, as Demo­crats are forced to run this elec­tion mara­thon with crush­ing Obama­care ankle weights.”

“The gen­er­ic bal­lot today would in­dic­ate big GOP gains.”

“If the elec­tion were held today they would vote Obama as Grinch in chief.”

“Na­tion­al Re­pub­lic­an Sen­at­ori­al Com­mit­tee’s top-notch re­cruit­ing job, plus a lousy polit­ic­al en­vir­on­ment, spells the end to the Demo­crat­ic ma­jor­ity.”

“Obama­care, Obama­care, Obama­care.”

“We are not even at the end of the be­gin­ning for Obama­care fal­lout. GOP wins sev­en seats net, picks up a few House seats.”

“Obama­care is the gift that keeps on giv­ing.”

“The only pre­scrip­tion to fix Obama­care is a Re­pub­lic­an Sen­ate, and voters will want to take the cure, come next Novem­ber.”

… … … … …

Demo­crat­ic Polit­ic­al In­siders Jill Alp­er, John An­za­lone, Brad Ban­non, Dave Beat­tie, Andy Bech­hoe­fer, Cor­nell Belch­er, Matt Ben­nett, Mitchell W. Ber­ger, Mike Ber­man, Stephanie Bosh, Paul Brath­waite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brew­er, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Bon­nie Camp­bell, Bill Car­rick, Guy Cecil, Mar­tin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Larry Co­hen, Jerry Craw­ford, Brendan Daly, Jeff Daniel­son, Peter Daou, Howard Dean, Scott De­Fife, Jim De­mers, Tad Dev­ine, Dav­id Di Mar­tino, Debbie Din­gell, Mon­ica Dix­on, Patrick Dor­ton, Pat Du­jakovich, An­ita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve El­men­d­orf, Carter Eskew, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Fer­son, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Fo­ley, Jef­frey For­bes, Vin­cent Fril­lici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Mi­chael Gonza­lez, Joe Grand­mais­on, Anna Green­berg, Stan Green­berg, Pat Griffin, Larry Griso­lano, Mi­chael Gron­stal, Lisa Grove, Mar­cia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Dick Har­poot­li­an, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Doug Hat­t­away, Mike Henry, Kar­en Hicks, Leo Hindery Jr., Har­old Ickes, Mar­cus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jard­ing, Jona­thon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kauf­man, Lisa Koun­toupes, Celinda Lake, Dav­id Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Le­hane, Jeff Link, Bob Malo­ney, Jim Man­ley, Steve Marchand, Jim Mar­gol­is, Paul Maslin, Keith Ma­son, Susan Mc­Cue, Ger­ald McEntee, Steve McMa­hon, Tom McMa­hon, Phil Mc­Namara, Dav­id Med­ina, Mi­chael Mee­han, Mark Mell­man, John Mer­rigan, Mi­chael Mon­roe, Steve Murphy, Janet Na­pol­it­ano, Dav­id Nas­sar, Mar­cia Nich­ols, John Nor­ris, Tom Ochs, Tom O’Don­nell, Jef­frey Peck, De­bora Pig­na­telli, Tony Podesta, Je­frey Pol­lock, Jack Quinn, Larry Rasky, Mame Re­iley, Ed Rendell, Steve Ric­chetti, Will Robin­son, Steve Rosenth­al, Dav­id Rudd, Ry­an Rudom­in­er, John Ry­an, Mi­chael Sar­geant, Stephanie Schriock, Terry Shu­maker, Sean Sin­clair, Phil Sing­er, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Greg Speed, Darry Sragow, Ken Strasma, Doug Thor­nell, Jef­frey Tram­mell, Ed Tur­l­ing­ton, Rick Wien­er, James Wil­li­ams, JoDee Win­ter­hof, Bri­an Wolff, Jon Young­dahl, and Jim Zo­gby.

GOP Polit­ic­al In­siders Dan Al­len, Stan An­der­son, Gary An­dres, Saul­i­us (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bain­wol, Bri­an Baker, Gary Bauer, Dav­id Beck­with, Paul Ben­necke, Clark Ben­son, Wayne Ber­man, Bri­an Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Bla­lock, Car­mine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bon­jean, Jeff Bu­ley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Al Carde­n­as, Danny Car­roll, Alex Cas­tel­lanos, Ron Christie, Jim Cic­coni, Jonath­an Col­le­gio, Rob Collins, Cesar Conda, Jake Cor­man, Scott Cot­ting­ton, Jay Cran­ford, Greg Crist, Di­ane Crookham-John­son, Fer­gus Cul­len, Tom Dav­is, Mike Den­nehy, Ken Duber­stein, Debi Durham, Sara Fa­gen, Frank Fahren­kopf, John Fee­hery, Don Fierce, Mindy Finn, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Bruce A. Gates, Sam Geduldig, Adam Geller, Ben­jamin Gins­berg, Dav­id Gir­ard-di­Carlo, Bill Green­er, Jonath­an Grella, Lanny Grif­fith, Janet Mullins Gris­som, Doug Gross, Todd Har­ris, Steve Hart, Chris­toph­er Healy, Ral­ph Hell­mann, Chris Hen­ick, Terry Holt, Dav­id Ian­nel­li, Ed Ingle, Jim In­no­cenzi, Clark Judge, Dav­id Keat­ing, Dav­id Ken­sing­er, Bob Kjel­lander, Ed Kut­ler, Chris La­Civ­ita, Jim Lake, Steven Law, Steve Lom­bardo, Kev­in Mad­den, Joel Maiola, Gary Malo­ney, Dav­id Mar­in, Mary Matal­in, Dan Mat­toon, Bri­an Mc­Cor­mack, Mark McKin­non, Kyle Mc­Slar­row, Ken Mehl­man, Jim Mer­rill, Lisa Cam­ooso Miller, Tim Mor­ris­on, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nel­son, Neil Ne­w­house, Dav­id Nor­cross, Zi­ad Ojakli, Jack Oliv­er, Todd Olsen, Kev­in O’Neill, Con­nie Par­toy­an, Billy Piper, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, Dav­id Rehr, Tom Reyn­olds, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, Dav­id Roeder­er, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, An­drew Shore, Kev­in Shuvalov, Don Sipple, Ken Spain, Fred Steep­er, Bob Steven­son, Terry Sul­li­van, Dav­id Tamasi, Eric Tan­en­blatt, Richard Temple, Heath Thompson, Jay Tim­mons, War­ren Tomp­kins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Don­gen, Jan van Lo­huizen, Stew­art Ver­dery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Lezlee West­ine, Dave Win­ston, Ginny Wolfe, Fred Wszolek, and Mat­thew Zablud.

If the midterm election were held today, what would be the most likely result?

DEMO­CRATS (99 VOTES)

Status quo: 72%
Demo­crats take the House and keep the Sen­ate: 6%
GOP takes the Sen­ate and keeps the House: 21%
Demo­crats take the House, GOP takes the Sen­ate: 1%

Status quo

“It will be two more years of pain for the Obama ad­min­is­tra­tion.”

“People hate Con­gress but love their rep­res­ent­at­ives.”

“Not­with­stand­ing the Obama­care de­bacle, the demo­graph­ics are still too strong for a shift in either cham­ber.”

“This is all spec­u­la­tion un­til we see how Obama­care works out some time around March.”

“Smal­ler mar­gins in both houses, but so far nobody has made a clear case for change.”

“No tsuna­mis have hit yet.”

“Right now, status quo rules the day.”

Demo­crats take the House and keep the Sen­ate

“The pub­lic un­der­stands that you are either part of the prob­lem or part of the solu­tion. Re­pub­lic­ans are clearly part of the prob­lem with Obama­care.”

GOP takes the Sen­ate and keeps the House

“If it were today, the pun­ish­ment of Obama would lose D’s the Sen­ate, but there is a world of time left.”

“Obama has to make the case and give his can­did­ates cov­er. He is not do­ing that.”

“Sen­ate Dems are down right now but on the way back as the pub­lic grows tired of Obama­care-bash­ing.”

Demo­crats take the House, GOP takes the Sen­ate

“The pent-up an­ger and frus­tra­tion with D.C. is a dark cloud hanging over Cap­it­ol Hill. If the weath­er doesn’t clear up, my fore­cast is a big storm next Novem­ber that will blow away House Re­pub­lic­ans and Sen­ate Demo­crats.”

If the midterm election were held today, what would be the most likely result?

RE­PUB­LIC­ANS (93 VOTES)

Status quo: 42%
Demo­crats take the House and keep the Sen­ate: 0%
GOP takes the Sen­ate and keeps the House: 58%
Demo­crats take the House, GOP takes the Sen­ate: 0%

Status quo

“Re­pub­lic­ans have a chance to take the Sen­ate, but they’re cer­tainly not there yet.”

“R’s will gain in both houses, but fall short of Sen­ate con­trol.”

“If the elec­tion were held today, Re­pub­lic­ans would re­tain the House (with a slightly re­duced ma­jor­ity) and gain sev­er­al Sen­ate seats, but not enough for a ma­jor­ity.”

“Both parties (Re­pub­lic­ans in par­tic­u­lar) are ad­ept at snatch­ing de­feat from the jaws of vic­tory. Mis­souri and In­di­ana from 2012 come to mind as far as the Sen­ate is con­cerned.”

“Re­pub­lic­ans pick up four, pos­sibly five, seats in the Sen­ate but can’t get the sixth they need.”

GOP takes the Sen­ate and keeps the House

“The wave is build­ing. Get ready.”

“The Demo­crats are hem­or­rhaging.”

“The play­ing field is break­ing way open, as Demo­crats are forced to run this elec­tion mara­thon with crush­ing Obama­care ankle weights.”

“The gen­er­ic bal­lot today would in­dic­ate big GOP gains.”

“If the elec­tion were held today they would vote Obama as Grinch in chief.”

“Na­tion­al Re­pub­lic­an Sen­at­ori­al Com­mit­tee’s top-notch re­cruit­ing job, plus a lousy polit­ic­al en­vir­on­ment, spells the end to the Demo­crat­ic ma­jor­ity.”

“Obama­care, Obama­care, Obama­care.”

“We are not even at the end of the be­gin­ning for Obama­care fal­lout. GOP wins sev­en seats net, picks up a few House seats.”

“Obama­care is the gift that keeps on giv­ing.”

“The only pre­scrip­tion to fix Obama­care is a Re­pub­lic­an Sen­ate, and voters will want to take the cure, come next Novem­ber.”

… … … … …

Demo­crat­ic Polit­ic­al In­siders Jill Alp­er, John An­za­lone, Brad Ban­non, Dave Beat­tie, Andy Bech­hoe­fer, Cor­nell Belch­er, Matt Ben­nett, Mitchell W. Ber­ger, Mike Ber­man, Stephanie Bosh, Paul Brath­waite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brew­er, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Bon­nie Camp­bell, Bill Car­rick, Guy Cecil, Mar­tin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Larry Co­hen, Jerry Craw­ford, Brendan Daly, Jeff Daniel­son, Peter Daou, Howard Dean, Scott De­Fife, Jim De­mers, Tad Dev­ine, Dav­id Di Mar­tino, Debbie Din­gell, Mon­ica Dix­on, Patrick Dor­ton, Pat Du­jakovich, An­ita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve El­men­d­orf, Carter Eskew, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Fer­son, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Fo­ley, Jef­frey For­bes, Vin­cent Fril­lici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Mi­chael Gonza­lez, Joe Grand­mais­on, Anna Green­berg, Stan Green­berg, Pat Griffin, Larry Griso­lano, Mi­chael Gron­stal, Lisa Grove, Mar­cia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Dick Har­poot­li­an, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Doug Hat­t­away, Mike Henry, Kar­en Hicks, Leo Hindery Jr., Har­old Ickes, Mar­cus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jard­ing, Jona­thon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kauf­man, Lisa Koun­toupes, Celinda Lake, Dav­id Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Le­hane, Jeff Link, Bob Malo­ney, Jim Man­ley, Steve Marchand, Jim Mar­gol­is, Paul Maslin, Keith Ma­son, Susan Mc­Cue, Ger­ald McEntee, Steve McMa­hon, Tom McMa­hon, Phil Mc­Namara, Dav­id Med­ina, Mi­chael Mee­han, Mark Mell­man, John Mer­rigan, Mi­chael Mon­roe, Steve Murphy, Janet Na­pol­it­ano, Dav­id Nas­sar, Mar­cia Nich­ols, John Nor­ris, Tom Ochs, Tom O’Don­nell, Jef­frey Peck, De­bora Pig­na­telli, Tony Podesta, Je­frey Pol­lock, Jack Quinn, Larry Rasky, Mame Re­iley, Ed Rendell, Steve Ric­chetti, Will Robin­son, Steve Rosenth­al, Dav­id Rudd, Ry­an Rudom­in­er, John Ry­an, Mi­chael Sar­geant, Stephanie Schriock, Terry Shu­maker, Sean Sin­clair, Phil Sing­er, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Greg Speed, Darry Sragow, Ken Strasma, Doug Thor­nell, Jef­frey Tram­mell, Ed Tur­l­ing­ton, Rick Wien­er, James Wil­li­ams, JoDee Win­ter­hof, Bri­an Wolff, Jon Young­dahl, and Jim Zo­gby.

GOP Polit­ic­al In­siders Dan Al­len, Stan An­der­son, Gary An­dres, Saul­i­us (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bain­wol, Bri­an Baker, Gary Bauer, Dav­id Beck­with, Paul Ben­necke, Clark Ben­son, Wayne Ber­man, Bri­an Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Bla­lock, Car­mine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bon­jean, Jeff Bu­ley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Al Carde­n­as, Danny Car­roll, Alex Cas­tel­lanos, Ron Christie, Jim Cic­coni, Jonath­an Col­le­gio, Rob Collins, Cesar Conda, Jake Cor­man, Scott Cot­ting­ton, Jay Cran­ford, Greg Crist, Di­ane Crookham-John­son, Fer­gus Cul­len, Tom Dav­is, Mike Den­nehy, Ken Duber­stein, Debi Durham, Sara Fa­gen, Frank Fahren­kopf, John Fee­hery, Don Fierce, Mindy Finn, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Bruce A. Gates, Sam Geduldig, Adam Geller, Ben­jamin Gins­berg, Dav­id Gir­ard-di­Carlo, Bill Green­er, Jonath­an Grella, Lanny Grif­fith, Janet Mullins Gris­som, Doug Gross, Todd Har­ris, Steve Hart, Chris­toph­er Healy, Ral­ph Hell­mann, Chris Hen­ick, Terry Holt, Dav­id Ian­nel­li, Ed Ingle, Jim In­no­cenzi, Clark Judge, Dav­id Keat­ing, Dav­id Ken­sing­er, Bob Kjel­lander, Ed Kut­ler, Chris La­Civ­ita, Jim Lake, Steven Law, Steve Lom­bardo, Kev­in Mad­den, Joel Maiola, Gary Malo­ney, Dav­id Mar­in, Mary Matal­in, Dan Mat­toon, Bri­an Mc­Cor­mack, Mark McKin­non, Kyle Mc­Slar­row, Ken Mehl­man, Jim Mer­rill, Lisa Cam­ooso Miller, Tim Mor­ris­on, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nel­son, Neil Ne­w­house, Dav­id Nor­cross, Zi­ad Ojakli, Jack Oliv­er, Todd Olsen, Kev­in O’Neill, Con­nie Par­toy­an, Billy Piper, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, Dav­id Rehr, Tom Reyn­olds, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, Dav­id Roeder­er, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, An­drew Shore, Kev­in Shuvalov, Don Sipple, Ken Spain, Fred Steep­er, Bob Steven­son, Terry Sul­li­van, Dav­id Tamasi, Eric Tan­en­blatt, Richard Temple, Heath Thompson, Jay Tim­mons, War­ren Tomp­kins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Don­gen, Jan van Lo­huizen, Stew­art Ver­dery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Lezlee West­ine, Dave Win­ston, Ginny Wolfe, Fred Wszolek, and Mat­thew Zablud.

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