Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell looks poised to comfortably win renomination next month, despite a serious challenge from tea party opponent Matt Bevin. But what’s equally important for McConnell is that he’s outlined a strategy to neutralize the tea party grassroots — and he’s winning.
— Back in March, McConnell told the NYT he planned to “crush” conservative outside groups, even airing an ad attacking the Bevin-backing Senate Conservatives Fund in his own race. Since then, outside establishment groups like the Chamber of Commerce and Crossroads have been unusually active in GOP primaries, working to nominate more-electable candidates. It’s looking like the establishment has the momentum in every consequential race — even in races where the battle lines are less defined.
— The tactics are multifaceted: In races featuring vulnerable incumbents, establishment groups have hit the challengers hard, both on TV and with embarrassing opposition research. To help Sen. Thad Cochran (R-MS), the NRSC circulated clips of old radio talk shows where state Sen. Chris McDaniel (R) made racially-insensitive and sexist comments. To help Sen. Pat Roberts (R-KS), the committee hit radiologist Milton Wolf (R) for posting comments about corpses on Facebook. Even the Chamber of Commerce, which rarely goes on the attack, has aired ads portraying GOP challengers in Mississippi and Idaho as “trial lawyers.” A newly-created super PAC with ties to GOP donors Sheldon Adelson and Paul Singer attacked Rep. Phil Gingrey, viewed as the weaker candidate in the Georgia Senate race.
— Establishment groups have also been willing to use lower-profile measures to help favored candidates. In North Carolina, American Crossroads is pouring in over $1 million in positive biographical spots to help state House Speaker Thom Tillis avoid a runoff. In Idaho, the Chamber cut an ad featuring Mitt Romney‘s endorsement of Rep. Mike Simpson (R-ID), who is facing Club for Growth-backed opponent Bryan Smith. In Georgia, the Chamber endorsed Rep. Jack Kingston (R) in a crowded Senate primary.
If the GOP wins back the Senate majority, the next two months of primaries will be seen as a crucial period, where outside establishment groups effectively organized to back more-electable candidates, outmaneuvering the grassroots. Or as anti-establishment RedState.com editor Erick Erickson put it: “The establishment intends to cling to their precious.”
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Despite trailing Hillary Clinton by a significant margin, Bernie Sanders wasn't going the way of Ted Cruz tonight. The Vermont senator upset Clinton in Indiana, with MSNBC calling the race at 9pm. Sanders appears poised to win by a five- or six-point spread.
And just like that, it's over. Ted Cruz will suspend his presidential campaign after losing badly to Donald Trump in Indiana tonight. "While Cruz had always hedged when asked whether he would quit if he lost Indiana; his campaign had laid a huge bet on the state." John Kasich's campaign has pledged to carry on. “From the beginning, I’ve said that I would continue on as long as there was a viable path to victory,” said Cruz. “Tonight, I’m sorry to say it appears that path has been foreclosed."
The Republican establishment's last remaining hope—a contested convention this summer—may have just ended in Indiana, as Donald Trump won a decisive victory over Ted Cruz. Nothing Cruz seemed to have in his corner seemed to help—not a presumptive VP pick in Carly Fiorina, not a midwestern state where he's done well in the past, and not the state's legions of conservatives. Though Trump "won't secure the 1,237 delegates he needs to formally claim the nomination until June, his Indiana triumph makes it almost impossible to stop him. Following his decisive wins in New York and other East Coast states, the Indiana victory could put Trump within 200 delegates of the magic number he needs to clinch the nomination." Cruz, meanwhile, "now faces the agonizing choice of whether to remain in the race, with his attempt to force the party into a contested convention in tatters, or to bow out and cede the party nomination to his political nemesis." The Associated Press, which called the race at 7pm, predicts Trump will win at least 45 delegates.